How Pawlenty could win a third term

Will Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty run for a third term in 2010? Or will he shrink from the prospect of losing to preserve his 2012 ambitions?

The Capitol Report lays out a solid case for the former, despite the risks it carries.

But before practical concerns, let's talk theory.

Apparently, Pawlenty advisors are making the theoretical case that Pawlenty needs to win a third term to compete with the likes of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney in 2012. In the intervening years, he'd remain relevant, build a fan and donor base; then enter a national campaign as a three-term, nearly blood-red Republican in a blue state.

Practically, the Capitol Report crunches some historical numbers, while modeling turnout for a 2010 gubernatorial bid, and concludes that Pawlenty-fatigue or not, a third term could be a good bet.

Consider this, since Minnesota implemented four-year gubernatorial terms in 1958, there have only been three times when the governor's race has been at the top of the Minnesota ballot, i.e., there was no presidential or U.S. Senate contest. Here are the years and results.... [table of results]

The results show weak voter turnout in those election years most analogous to 2010. And that tends to help Republicans.

Obama fatigue could be setting in, the GOP's energy will have kicked in, and wealthy Mark Dayton (whom Time magazine called one of the worst Senators in America), will probably have checked in his way to the Democratic nomination.

All of this leads Capitol Report to conclude:

And there you have it. One heck of a solid line of reasoning why Pawlenty could win a third term.