Wednesday, November 4, 2009

About last night

George Stephanopoulos says Palin and Pawlenty lose.

Mike Huckabee congratulates VA and NJ; is quiet on NY-23.

Politico names winners and losers.

Don Surber says Hoffman should've "spent less time on Fox".

Sarah Palin says Hoffman was an underdog.

Ed Morrissey says NY-23 is "actually not bad at all".

Mark Steyn says key NJ & VA counties proves Republicans don't have to moderate.

GOP12 says read David Frum:

Palin helped nationalize the election in the worst possible way, transforming what ought to have been a referendum on Barack Obama’s personalities into a referendum on herself.

Palin got loads of props the last couple weeks (including from here) for being the groundbreaker on Hoffman. But now it looks like she broke something besides ground.

The spin from some today is that conservatives did their job in NY-23. If that job is helping the Democrat win, then well-done. Palin says "the cause goes on" and that the race for NY-23 was just postponed.

No, the Democrat won and will have an advantage in 2010.

Newt Gingrich looks good this morning, as does Haley Barbour, and what a surprise -- they engineered the Republicans' last comeback on the strength of a diversity of candidates.

The good thing for Republicans is that everything else went well. Bob McDonnell ran a great campaign, and notice that both he and Chris Christie didn't exactly welcome Sarah Palin to their state.

As Frum says, Palin is so electric and polarizing that she has the potential to overwhelm whichever candidate she stumps for. In some states that's good. But in battleground states or certain districts that go by Michael Jordan's immortal number, it can be a bad thing.

Would Scozzafava have won? Who knows. But we do know Hoffman lost, and the seat switched hands.

Winners: Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Charlie Crist, Dede Scozzafava, Republicans.

Losers: Democrats, Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, grassroots right echo chambers.

On Monday, Jill Lawrence was prescient.

How many non-politicians or obscure state legislators are going to step up after this, knowing that in mid-race their party may abandon them? How does this grow a party that's been contracting among minorities and in virtually every region but the South?

How many contests does the Palin approach cede to Democrats, who have been happy to recruit moderates and conservatives in places they believe candidates like that can win?

On Sunday, Newt Gingrich was prescient.

"I think we are going to get into a very difficult environment around the country if suddenly conservative leaders decide they are going to anoint people without regard to local primaries and local choices."

Last Thursday, Newt was also prescient when he told Pawlenty and Palin thru the pages of the Daily Beast:

“You should call and ask them and say what’s the purity test for the governor of California? Does anyone pass the purity test?"

And on October 31, I was wrong.

.... among 2012 people, Palin obviously gets the big boost, Pawlenty gets some (albeit) late credit, Romney and Huck just look tepid (which feeds into lingering questions surrounding Mitt), and Newt looks like a carved up Jack-o-Lantern.

And finally, a clip from the episode this post was named for. NSFW language.