Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Poll: Obama handily beats Pawlenty in Minnesota

Here's a little more evidence that even though Tim Pawlenty's approval rating in Minnesota is solid (52% in Rasmussen yesterday), it won't necessarily translate to votes in a general election.

In a new St. Cloud University Poll (pdf), Pawlenty's job approval is nearly even with Obama's (50% Obama, 49% Pawlenty), but the Prez still beats him in a 2012 matchup, 49%-40%.

Key numbers:

a. The only age demo in which T-Paw leads is the 35-44 yr old set.

b. Catholics go Obama, 51%-40%.

c. Females go Obama, +28%. Males go Pawlenty, +9%.

Notes: This isn't the first poll showing Obama beating Pawlenty in his home state. In a Public Policy Polling survey (pdf) from July, the POTUS won a hypothetical matchup by 11%.

If polls like this keep popping up, it could undermine one of Pawlenty's strongest arguments -- that he could turn Minnesota red.

[Hat tip: Minnesota Public Radio]