Whitman opens up big lead in CA primary

The voting story doesn't seem to have hurt Meg Whitman; in fact, she seems to be widening her lead.

Here are some reference points -- A Field poll (pdf) released on October 8 had Whitman locked in a statistical tie with underfunded opponent Tom Campbell.

On August 13, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll also had Whitman and Campbell close, separated by only 5%.

But according to a new Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research poll, Tom Campbell is hemorrhaging support, and the fall-out seems to be favoring Whitman.

Among likely GOP primary voters:

1. Meg Whitman 34.3%

2. Tom Campbell 12.5%

3. Steve Poizner 5.5%

Notes: There could be a couple reasons for this. The most obvious would be that Whitman's spent $19 million already.

Another possibility is that Campbell's unconventional views might not be playing well as the base gets increasingly involved.

After all, Campbell's proposed gas tax hike can't be too popular right now, and he also favors gay marriage, while opponents Whitman and Poizner don't. But in other ways, he's more conservative than his opponents (e.g. he favors getting rid of the Dept of Education).

The problem is Campbell's running one of those charming Bulworth campaigns, but will have big trouble in the big media markets. Unless Poizner can somehow get some traction (and he has plenty of money), Whitman looks to be firmly in command.