After a flurry of speculation that Gov. Charlie Crist might run for Florida's open Senate seat, those Crist for Senate stories strangely quieted as the Governor assured voters his only interest lay in governing the Sunshine State.
But now -- sudden revival.
Asked if he could see himself in the race.... he left the door open.
“Not today. I’m not really thinking about politics. I’m thinking about our budget. I’m thinking about what I have to do.”
And why the hell not?
Charlie Crist has a luxury that no other candidate considering the Senate race has, and that’s that he is so popular, he can take a year to make up his mind.
Florida's GOP chair
Jim Greer:
“I don’t think he’s ever closed the door or opened the door. Most importantly he’s focusing on being Governor of Florida. And at the end of the day, Charlie Crist is going to play a very important role in who becomes the next United States Senator from Florida.”
Here's what's going to happen.
As the year progresses, Charlie Crist will take a hard look at how Florida's economy is faring -- is it showing sparks of light or sputtering gasps of death? If the economy continues to take it up the Panhandle, expect Crist to run for reelection. He's simply not going to jump ship while survivors are still on board.
But, if the economy begins showing incipient signs of life, Crist will take a month or two to throw out national feelers re: his Presidential aspirations. If his buddy Michael Steele's the new chair, he'll have a pleasant chat over a martini about things 2012. Maybe he'll attend a CPAC or two. Perhaps he'll appoint a conservative justice. Whatever he does, he'll know fairly quickly how realistic a shot at the 2012 nomination is.
And my sense is that he'll be met with tepid response from grassroots activists, and encouraging support from rank-and-file Republicans.
So what's he to do with the ambivalence?
Know this: Charlie Crist is no dummy. You don't maintain a 67% approval rating in a state that's taking it up the Panhandle without some significant political skills. And Charlie Crist will take a look at the national landscape, process what's necessary to win a nomination in a fiercely right wing party, and decide it's not for him.
The decision will be a great relief to Charlie. Sure, no President, but no electoral defeat in an otherwise supremely charmed political life.
Charlie will decide that life as a centrist Republican in the Senate is enormously appealing. He'll campaign and vote according to his true political instincts, ones, incidentally, almost perfectly mirroring Florida's.
And he will be happy. And Florida will love him. And he will turn into a friendly, old lion of the Senate.