Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Romney leads Palin in Alaska

Public Policy Polling releases a survey showing Mitt Romney winning a hypothetical 2012 primary in Alaska (a poll that's less about AK's importance and more about Palin's electoral appeal in her home state).

1. Mitt Romney 20%

2. Sarah Palin 17%

2. Mike Huckabee 17%

3. Newt Gingrich 16%

4. Ron Paul 10%

Meanwhile, 62% of Republican primary voters don't want her to run for President, while just 24% do, and among those who have a favorable opinion of her, only 39% want her to run in 2012.

Notes: Here's something fascinating. Sarah Palin gets a 14%/28% favorability rating among Romney voters.

An interesting question would be how many of those Romney voters are, explicitly, Romney voters because they want to deny Palin the nomination and how many are bananas for Mitt because they think he's the bee's knees (in other words, what's driving their support?)

By contrast, Newt's supporters look favorably on Sarah Palin, while Huck's are nearly evenly split on the former half-term governor.

In another finding that seems to mirror national patterns, both Palin (#1) and Newt score highest among those who identify themselves with the tea party.

Mitt Romney scores best among both men and women, and Palin comes in at #3 among women, behind Huckabee (another trend we've seen over and over -- Huck's strong performance among women).

And -- with Newt's rise -- there's been another noticeable pattern: Gingrich does very well with men (essentially tied for the top spot), but does poorly among women, lagging behind Huck, Palin, and Romney.

Pdf results here.