Thune works to knock off Herseth Sandlin

Kasie Hunt chronicles John Thune's efforts on behalf of Kristie Noem, who's got a chance for a big, symbolic victory in SD -- sending popular Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin packing.

At the moment, Thune's focus is on Noem, a candidate many Republicans expect will immediately become a star if she defeats Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Thune is devoting two days on the trail to her, making 10 stops in nine cities and towns, where crowds vary from about 20 in tiny DeSmet to hundreds in larger towns.

Their stump speeches are short: Thune spends a few minutes talking about the deficit before introducing Noem as a candidate who can balance a budget, meet a payroll and bring “common-sense, Midwestern conservative values” to Congress.

And in good practice for Iowa.

In South Dakota, a place so sparsely populated that retail politics still matters a great deal and voters expect face time with candidates, both Thune and Noem spent at least a half an hour at each stop chatting with supporters in small groups, answering questions and talking about family, the progress of the farm season or how the local football team is doing.

Noem and Thune, both of whom draw whispers at stops for their good looks, mixed easily with the crowds.

If you want to read a good profile of Kristie Noem, check out this one, which notes that she lives on a ranch, hunts with a bow and arrow, and has raised lots and lots of cash in her run.

Daniels close to property tax victory

Wall Street Journal's Amy Merrick:

Indiana voters are likely Tuesday to enshrine new property-tax caps in the state constitution with an amendment that would make them permanent, adding to pressures on municipal budgets already hit by declines in incomes and housing prices.

Gov. Mitch Daniels, a Republican considered a potential presidential candidate in 2012, has been campaigning in favor of the amendment. Otherwise, he said in an interview, it will be too tempting for lawmakers to raise tax rates.

"Human nature and the bureaucratic instinct for self-preservation very rarely reform, absent some pressure to do so," Mr. Daniels said.

A majority of voters seem to agree. A survey released Friday by the nonpartisan Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics found that 52% of likely or actual voters favored adding the tax caps to the Indiana constitution.

It'll also be interesting to see if his efforts on behalf of state house Republicans can swing the balance of power to the R's this Tuesday.

[Hat tip: a reader]

Republican insiders worry about Palin

Mike Allen and Jim Vandehei:

Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.

Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.

There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.

Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years.

"There is a determined, focused establishment effort … to find a candidate we can coalesce around who can beat Sarah Palin," said one prominent and longtime Washington Republican. "We believe she could get the nomination, but Barack Obama would crush her."

This sentiment was a nearly constant refrain in POLITICO interviews with top advisers to the candidates most frequently mentioned as running in 2012 and a diverse assortment of other top GOP officials.

Nearly all of these interviewees insisted on keeping their views on background, fearing the wrath of conservative grass-roots activists who are enthralled with the former Alaska governor and who have made plain that the establishment’s disdain for Palin and her devotees is mutually reciprocated.

Top Republicans, from presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty to highly influential advisers such as Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie, are said to be concerned she will run, and could win, according to the officials.

If they're really serious about stopping her, at some point, names besides Karl Rove are going to have to come out and face the wrath of Palin fans.

My guess is that Ann Coulter, who's already urged Palin not to run and seems to be an undeclared backer of Mitt Romney, will step up the hits.

Two other names to watch -- Charles Krauthammer and Fred Barnes, who both have impeccable conservative credentials and have been pretty critical of her.

Krauthammer called Palin's endorsement of O'Donnell "destructive and capricious", and you wonder whether he views her mercurial temperament somewhat similarly.

Last year, he accused her of "whining."

"I don't think it's productive for her to attack the media. A) it's not going to change anything. Secondly, her coverage is the oxygen she lives on. She'll be covered all the time as no one else has.

.... And thirdly, when she complains about it, it has a whining quality like Nixon in '62, in which he said to the media 'you're not going to have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore.' She doesn't need that.

And soon after Palin resigned as governor of Alaska, Fred Barnes lit into her (despite his colleague, Bill Kristol's admiration).

"Forget about Sarah Palin as the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 and probably ever.... Palin is no Reagan. He was governor of California for two terms, before which he'd been an effective leader in the fight against Communists in the movie industry.

Every bit as important, Reagan had read the works of all the great conservative thinkers of the past two centuries. He had imbibed their wisdom."

Barnes has also hit Palin for her tendency to, as he put it last year, "whine."

"There is a way to deal with the press. Look at the way Ronald Reagan did. He didn't attack the press. He teased them. He made fun of them. He jokes about them, embarrassed them. It was great.

People loved it and it didn't have that edge, that whiny edge that you always want to avoid."

Also, Palin's rivals for the '12 nomination are going to have to start questioning her. They can't hide their names behind articles like this one.

If Palin can somehow manage to make her name synonymous with conservatism, that's going to spell trouble for her opponents in the primary.

But still, in order to actually win her nomination, she's still going to have to make some overtures to the establishment, because right now she runs the risk of becoming what novelist John Cheever described himself as:

“I am the sort of iconoclast who will ridicule the establishment endlessly and expect to be seated at the head of the table.”

That's a tough balancing act, but one she's obviously managing, or else articles like Allen and Vandehei's wouldn't be written.

Palin: "If the country needed me"

Sarah Palin, talking about potential Presidential aspirations today on Fox News Sunday.

"If the country needed me, and I'm not saying that it does, and that the country would ever necessarily want to choose me over anyone else, but I would be willing to make the sacrifices, if need be, for America."

Earlier this year, Newt Gingrich had a similar line on a potential run.

“Do I have a responsibility that I can't walk away from?”

So far, I've yet to hear Pawlenty, Huckabee, Romney, Thune, Daniels or others talk about their ambition in similarly heroic terms, and I doubt many Americans -- beyond the candidates' specific fans -- view any potential candidate for President as one who's grudgingly making a sacrifice for the greater good.

You go visit your in-laws for that type of stuff.

Saying you'll be willing to sacrifice by being President is something like a chubby, chocolate-lover telling dinner guests "Well, since we don't want that chocolate to go to waste, I might as finish it."

Palin: No compromise

On Fox News Sunday today, Sarah Palin said that tea party candidates shouldn't compromise to get things done in a closely-divided Congress, post-election.

CHRIS WALLACE: If Republicans gain control of the House and -- in effect -- control of the effect to block in the Senate, they gotta govern.

So question: should they be willing to compromise some of their first principles that they talked about on the campaign trail to get things done?

PALIN: No, they should not compromise on principle. Absolutely not. That's been part of the problem is those who've decided to go along to get along and make these compromises.

[Later]

WALLACE: Let me rephrase it. Maybe the question shouldn't be:are they going to compromise on principle. Should they compromise on policy?

Let me give you an example.

In England, the conservative government has just announced a new austerity package -- spending cuts and tax increases. 3:1 spending cuts over tax increases, because they're trying to get both sides to buy into it.

Would you accept something like that with massive spending cuts, but also some tax increases if that's what you need to address the national debt which you're concerned about and to fix entitlements.?

PALIN: No, we don't have to compromise on that, because the premise there is false -- that you have to increase taxes in order to balance a budget.

Palin to Rove: Reagan was an actor

This morning, Chris Wallace asked Sarah Palin about Karl Rove's recent comments, claiming that Palin's upcoming reality show diminished her credibility as a serious candidate.

Palin's reply: 1) Reagan was an actor and 2) For the MILLIONTH TIME, it's not a reality show. It's a documentary.

"Wasn't Ronald Reagan an actor? Wasn't he in Bedtime for Bonzo, [or] Bozo, so Ronald Reagan was an actor.

Now look it: I'm not in a reality show. I have eight episodes, documenting Alaska's resources -- what it is that we can contribute to the rest of the U.S. -- to economically and physically secure our union, and my family comes along on the ride, because I am family, family is us, and my family comes along on the ride to document these eight episodes for the Learning Channel and Discovery Channel.

So Karl's wrong -- he's wrong right there in calling it a 'reality show'."

Hey, have you seen that documentary on polygamy, "Sister Wives"?

Palin: The cost of a run for President

Sarah Palin sounded a bit like Mike Huckabee today on Fox News Sunday, saying she might love what she's doing too much to run for political office.

"I love the freedom that I have -- that I can sit here, and I can tell you anything that I want to tell you, and not have to worry so much about how it will affect my future political career, or my relationship with Senators or Congressmen.

No, I'll say what I want to say, and that's freeing.

So I love the position that I'm in now. I would weigh that -- the freedom that I have now against those constraints that you would have as a candidate."

Palin: "Corrupt bastards" out to get Miller

Sarah Palin got heated today on Fox News Sunday, while talking about Alaska's Senate race with Chris Wallace.

"The things that this fellow has had to put up with up against the GOP machine and the Democrats and the liberal media in Alaska, it's no wonder that the numbers are tightening in that race.

Just last night, it was revealed that the rally that I had for Joe Miller on Thursday -- it was revealed, and we have the tape that proves it, that the CBS reporters -- the affiliate in Alaska -- conspired to make up stories about Joe Miller.

We have the tape, Chris [Wallace], and I can't wait 'til it busts out all over the nation to show what it is that we -- kind of what I put up with for two years now with the media -- what Joe Miller is faced with in dealing with somebody, Lisa Murkowski, who feels so entitled to that seat that she and some of her people, including some complicit in the media, will do anything. They will stop at nothing to allow Lisa Murkowski to get back elected.

.... I'm saying, and we have it on tape, that CBS reporters in the affiliate up there in Alaska -- on tape -- are saying "let's find a child molester in the crowd as a supporter for Joe Miller. Let's blast that."

"Let's concoct a Ron Paul moment there -- let's find any kind of chaos so that we can tweet an alert saying 'Oh, there's chaos -- Joe Miller got punched."

That's sick. Those are corrupt bastards, Chris.

Via Big Journalism, Here's the vid Palin is apparently talking about.



And here she is chatting about it, via Sam Stein.



UPDATE: Ben Smith has the TV station's response -- a response that isn't very reassuring.

Palin defends O'Donnell endorsement

On Fox News Sunday this morning, Chris Wallace pointed out to Sarah Palin that her pick in the Delaware Senate race, Christine O'Donnell, had turned "what had looked to be a sure Republican pick-up into a likely loss."

Palin's defense: I vote for the most conservative in the primary; then give it the "old college try" in the general.

PALIN: With Christine O'Donnell -- when given a choice -- why in the world would I have supported the liberal, the RINO, the pro-cap and tax, wishy-washy, ObamaCare, Mike Castle?

If given the choice of course I'm going to support the conservative in that.

WALLACE: What if she loses?

PALIN: Who was going to guarantee that Castle was going to win anyway? As you're saying, it's a blue state, it's a liberal state. So, given the choice, yeah give it the old college try.

If O'Donnell goes down, I'm not sure what this does to Rush Limbaugh's frequent catchphrase that "real conservatism wins every time it is tried."

O'Donnell had plenty of money, plenty of media space, and plenty of chances, and the RCP average still has her down 15%.

Of course, she still has two days left.

Pawlenty's predictions

On Face the Nation this morning, Tim Pawlenty gave a quick preview of what he expects to see on Tuesday.

"As vice-chair of the Republican Governor's Association, I'll focus on the governor's races, Bob. We'll go from 24 to at least 30, and probably well north of 30.

You'll see a couple surprises there -- maybe in Maine. But you'll also see most of the Great Lakes' states switch from mostly blue now back to red.

That's going to be a bellwether for things to come."

Barbour: No space left on the Left

Today on Meet the Press, David Gregory asked DNC chairman, Tim Kaine, if Barack Obama would be challenged from the Left for the 2012 nomination.

Kaine was adamant that there'd be no challenge, and Gregory's other guest, Haley Barbour, agreed.

"I was thinking about the President having a challenge from the Left.

Who is there to the Left of him?"

Saturday evening eats

a. Sunday shows: Barbour is on MTP.... T-Paw is on Face the Nation.... Sarah Palin is on Fox News Sunday.

b. Jerry Brown exploits the Giants.

c. Rick Perry will take in a Ranger game.

d. The liberal gene?

e. VF's Republican beefcake gallery (if you're brave).

f. Apparently, Turkey is more scared of Israel than Syria.

g. Sarah Palin urges Pennsylvanians to vote early, even though they can't.

Romnney adviser: We don't want to overexpose Mitt

Mitt Romney will make a rare TV appearance on Sean Hannity's show this Monday, and one of his advisers confirms to Dan Balz what's been apparent the past couple of years.

"We've picked our spots all along," said one Romney adviser, offering an insight into his boss's thinking about appearing on television or at major events.

"We only have him go out there when he has something interesting to say."

Another adviser goes into a little more detail.

"Four years ago, there was this enormous pressure to not only create awareness but to stimulate demand.

Right now what you're seeing is the benefit of having much higher visibility and already built-in awareness . . . When you're at 2 percent [in the polls, as Romney was four years ago], you're putting a premium on getting noticed rather than what you're getting noticed for."

All that contrasts with the Newt, Huck, Palin, Santorum Model, which has been to consistently promote their messages through their employment with Fox News.

Rush Limbaugh rates the 2012 candidates

Newsweek asks Rush Limbaugh to rates the 2012 candidates on a scale from 1-10.

a. Sarah Palin 8

b. Chris Christie 8

c. Haley Barbour 7

d. Mitt Romney 6

e. Newt Gingrich 6

f. Tim Pawlenty 6

g. Mike Huckabee 4

Christie rocks Ohio

CNN's Peter Hamby, on Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, and Chris Christie's campaign event for Ohio gubernatorial candidate, John Kasich, yesterday.

Christie.... ultimately stole the show.

He earned a sustained ovation after grabbing the microphone, eliciting one "I love you!" from a female member of the audience. Christie was mobbed after the rally and lingered for nearly 15 minutes, posing for photos and signing autographs.

And to underscore the point.

Kasich dubbed Christie "the most popular governor in America," even as Barbour and Pawlenty, both sitting governors considering 2012 presidential bids, were standing next to him on stage.

A Rasmussen reports poll released Thursday has Kasich up 4% on incumbent Democrat, Ted Strickland, while a Survey USA poll has Kasich up 5%.

Raese gets Palin and Rudy

Both Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani are making stops in West Virginia to campaign for Senatorial candidate, John Raese.

Palin, the First Dude, and Ted Nugent will highlight a rally today, while Rudy is scheduled to stump with Raese on Monday in the Clarksburg area.

A Rasmussen poll released on Wednesday showed the Democrat, Joe Manchin, leading Raese, 49%-46%.

[Hat tip: Don Surber and Buzz Tracker]

Palin's pattern

In what's become a staple of Sarah Palin's defense of candidates who are being attacked, the ex-Alaska Governor rips into Lisa Murkowski in a Facebook post by alluding to her own victimization.

Well, rips into Murkowski and Dan Fagan, the talk show host Palin is ostensibly defending.

The gist: Palin is defending Fagan's right to free speech over the air, while accusing Murkowski of attempting to take that right away.

As she commonly does, Palin takes a diversion to get there.

Dan Fagan has not always agreed with me, but I will gladly defend his right to speak freely on his radio show, which he has often used to criticize me.

In fact, Fagan has actually used his radio show to attack and insult me, my husband, my children, and my family in just about every way possible.

He was especially insulting to my son, who left for a war zone to defend Fagan’s right to attack our family.

[Later]

Lisa, you can sue me if you want (you won’t be the first). But I will not be intimidated from speaking my mind.

A few more examples of Palin's clever pattern of linking her woes with others'.

Smack dab in the middle of her robocall for Christine O'Donnell last month, she took a quick moment to remind listeners of her own battle (which serves to make her even more popular with her base).

"I can relate to the vicious personal attacks on Christine, and can tell you it’s sad to see the establishment's desperation in this."

And finally, Palin recently plugged Matthew Continetti's book, The Persecution of Sarah Palin, with a front-cover endorsement.

"Matthew Continetti rips the lid off the lamestream media in this must-read book."

As its title suggests, the book is about the persecution of Sarah Palin.

[Hat tip: Ed Morrissey]

Evening eats

a. Bachmann's not sold on Boehner.

b. The "Biden of the Right."

c. Floating Kasich 2012.

d. Can they pitch the Rangers back into it?

e. T-Paw, Barbour, and Christie in Ohio.

f. T-Paw parses.

g. Why Mitch Daniels is working so hard for a Republican state house.

h. Great episode last night. Also remember, Orlando @ Miami tonight.

Huck: Threat a sobering reminder

Mike Huckabee on Fox News today, after Barack Obama's briefing on the bomb scare.

"Most Americans woke up today, and they were thinking about the elections or maybe they were thinking about: would this be the day they either got a pink slip or maybe got an interview for a job.

They were thinking about their lives, and how they were going to live it for today.

But we have to remember that everyday we wake up, thinking about getting to work, somebody in the world is waking up thinking about how to kill us.

Every single day. There is no day in this world that goes by where there are not people who are totally focused on killing every last American."

UPDATE: Gibbs just said Obama's travel plans for the weekend won't change.

In other words, he'll be campaigning. That's a really bad move, especially when he's still reeling from criticism he's diminished the office with his media appearances (e.g. Daily Show) and message (e.g. his baseless foreign money claim).

The best campaigning he can do right now is to respond to the threat by tending to business from the White House.

Palin slams Crowley's tweets

Hillary Clinton's top spokesman, P.J. Crowley, sent two sardonic Happy Birthday tweets to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today that Sarah Palin, apparently, read as warm wishes.

Crowley's first tweet took a shot at Iran over holding two American hikers, being held in Iran on charges of espionage.

"Happy birthday President Ahmadinejad.

Celebrate by sending Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer home. What a gift that would be."

The second tweet.

"Your 54th year was full of lost opportunities. Hope in your 55th year you will open Iran to a different relationship with the world."

Palin interpreted the tweets as kowtowing and coddling of America's enemies.

"Happy B'day Ahmadinejad wish sent by US Govt. Mind boggling foreign policy: kowtow & coddle enemies; snub allies. Obama Doctrine is nonsense."

Jenny Sanford pulls in $15K...

... for a speech at the University of South Carolina this week.

Incidentally, only 100-200 people showed up.

Students negotiated with Jenny Sanford’s agent, not with the former first lady, [USC's associate vice president for student affairs Jerry] Brewer said, adding that the $15,000 they agreed upon was “reasonable” compared to fees some other speakers have received.

In a brief telephone interview with The State on Thursday, Jenny Sanford would not say if the $15,000 is in line with what she has received for other public appearances she has made to promote her book about her time as first lady.

“I don’t think I need to answer that,” she said. “This is pretty much my own business. I’m a private citizen. The details of my private life should remain private.”

As for the content of the speech -- a brutal anecdote.

.... in a 45-minute speech she told the audience that the end of her marriage was particularly difficult on her children, one of whom took a map of Argentina to school for a class project and explained that his father had a mistress in Argentina and that they had to move from Columbia back to Charleston.

Youtube scuttles Perry channel

In a Captain Renault moment, The Star-Telegram says Youtube is getting sensitive about online ads that incorporate clips from popular songs.

The Google-owned video site recently shut down [Rick] Perry's "Liberal Bill" YouTube channel because of "multiple third-party notifications of copyright infringement," according to the website.

.... Perry's and several other campaigns have incorporated popular music into online ads this election cycle. Though they would pay high fees to use songs by U2, the Beatles and Marvin Gaye in TV commercials, most Texas candidates haven't secured the rights to use music by those musicians for Web-only videos.

Earlier this year, [Perry spokesman Mark] Miner said, one reason the use of the music was kosher was that the clips were so short. Other campaigns also say such use of music online is "fair use."

In some cases, candidates have freed themselves from copyright restrictions by allowing their campaign videos to be used as commercials for the songs in them.

Crist adviser: Charlie would caucus with Dems

Reportedly: no if, and, or but.

Peter Wallsten:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist would caucus with Senate Democrats if he wins Florida’s three-way U.S. Senate contest on Tuesday, a close advisor told Washington Wire Friday.

That’s a big “if.” Mr. Crist is trailing Republican candidate Marco Rubio in most polls. But the declaration by Florida trial lawyer John Morgan sheds light on one of the many mysteries in the Bill Clinton-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek imbroglio.

“Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats,” Mr. Morgan said. “I don’t think there’s any ifs, ands or buts about it. It would be, in a very tight year, almost like a Democratic pickup in a solid Republican state.”

Mr. Morgan says the question of whether Mr. Crist would side with Democrats had nothing to do with any purported deal under which Mr. Meek would quit the race.

Crist spokesman Danny Kanner has denied that Mr. Crist had agreed to caucus with Senate Democrats as part of any deal with Mr. Clinton or Mr. Meek.

A person close to Mr. Clinton and familiar with the discussions tells Washington Wire that, yes, Mr. Crist had agreed to caucus with Senate Democrats if Mr. Meek bowed out of the race.

Santorum's GOTV video

Rick Santorum's closing argument.



[Hat tip: Kevin Derby]

Barbour: Obama needs Ohio

Haley Barbour, anticipating the White House's strategy, as he visits Ohio today.

“It looks like they’re trying to make a firewall.

.... If you look at all of the union money that’s been spent in Ohio, and all of the left-wing groups that have been there, it gives you the impression that they believe what Strickland said several times earlier in the campaign: For Obama to be reelected, he has to carry Ohio, and if Strickland is reelected, there’s a better chance that Obama carries Ohio. It sounds like they believe that.”

Hillary tops Bloomberg, Rudy

According to a new WSJ poll, NYC voters want Hillary over Bloomberg and Rudy, if Obama doesn't seek reelection, 58%-18%-17%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Al Sharpton and Giuliani tied for public figures New Yorkers most want outta their lives.

[Hat tip: CBS New York]

Huck hits Iowa judges in robocall

The Citizens United Political Victory Fund has enlisted the voice of Mike Huckabee to reach 250,000 phones in Iowa, urging voters to oust three judges who voted to legalize same-sex marriage.

Hi, this is Mike Huckabee, and I’m calling for Citizens United Political Victory Fund urging you to vote “NO” on retaining Chief Justice Marsha Ternus… Justices David Baker and Michael Streit this coming Tuesday.

The last thing this country and, especially Iowans, need are activist judges who put their own self interests ahead of the common good.

Most Iowans and really a majority of Americans agree that marriage is a sacred vow between one man and one woman. That’s why these Justices should not be retained—and why I am urging to vote no on their retention!

Thanks for your time and God Bless!

With the move, Huck now joins Rick Santorum as one of the two '12 hopefuls who are most involved in the fight.

Santorum disagrees with DeMint on earmarks

In South Carolina yesterday, Rick Santorum said that, while he admires Jim DeMint, he doesn't agree with his stand against earmarks.

The Greenville Online:

[Santorum] said the Constitution gives Congress control of the purse strings and that he supported earmarks for port deepening while a senator – the opposite of the position that DeMint is taking.

.... "If the tea party folks say, ‘We need to get back to the Constitution,' well, back to the Constitution means members of Congress should be spending this money, not the executive branch. And we're going the opposite direction, saying, ‘No, we're going to give all the power to the president,' ” Santorum said.

Well, if you look at the Constitution, the Constitution doesn't say the president spends the money, it says Congress spends the money.

So I just think it's a little bit off.”

Like Eat, Pray, Love

Rick Perry, on the trail.

"I've got to think there are more people who have read the Constitution in the last 18 months than in the last 50 years."

The other day, Palin said she would be willing to help out a Prez candidate with the right "common-sense, conservative, pro-Constitution passion."

If Palin decides to opt out, Rick Perry seems to fit the bill.

She endorsed him early on in his contentious primary with Kay Bailey Hutchison and held an 8,000+ Super Sunday Super Bowl rally for him in Feb, which seemed to fire up the tea party.

Incidentally, Karl Rove and the Bushies endorsed Hutchison in that race, which is another fault line between Rove and Palin.

67% say Palin isn't qualified

A new poll produced for ABC shows that only 27% of registered voters think Sarah Palin is qualified to be President, while 67% say she isn't.

Even Republicans are split on her qualifications, 47%-46%.

If you could draw a silver lining, it's that she's consistently the most popular figure among '12 hopefuls with Republican voters, and if she could find some way to translate those numbers into the qualification numbers, she'd be all set.

But it's going to be very difficult to do that, particularly because she's already blitzed voters with all things Palin over the past two years, and they're still not buying her chops.

If Palin really wants to change the number (and even this might not do it, considering how calcified the perception seems), she should do a few tough interviews and make herself available for direct criticism.

If she's able to weather the storm, then people might start buying her cred. Of course, she'll blame the lamestream media if the i/views don't turn out well, but how much further from ABC's numbers could she actually drop?

Might as well go rogue by going on one of the networks.

[Hat tip: Political Wire]

Despite chatter, Pence remains focused

While on the campaign trail in Indiana last night, Mike Pence wouldn't directly address a report that he's planning on stepping down from his position as Republican House Conference Chairman to run for President or governor of Indiana.

"Obviously we're aware of those press reports, and I’ve always been very humbled when people speak about us for higher office, but I'm absolutely determined to stay completely focused on November 2nd,” he said.

“I honestly believe discussions about leadership positions, either mine or someone else's, before the voters have spoken on November the 2nd is kind of like looking past the playoffs.”

Palin: What polarization?

Sarah Palin tells Mary Hart she doesn't get the whole polarization thing.

"That is a bit perplexing because I think, what is polarizing or extreme about believing, politically speaking, in the United States Constitution? And our Declaration of Independence, and all those things that it stands for?

And what our founding mothers and fathers in this country meant for America to keep building upon? Those are the things that I believe in. What's extreme about that? How is that polarizing? So I'm still perplexed by that, that characterization of the polarization."

The issue isn't whether her beliefs are polarizing; it's whether she -- Sarah Louise Heath Palin -- is polarizing.

After all, her message doesn't stray much from the GOP party platform that's selling so well right now.

But if you're tired of reading about polls showing her enormously popular among Republicans, enormously unpopular among Democrats, and very unpopular among indies, CQ's Steve Peoples has a good look at what polarization looks like on the ground.

During the general election season, Palin has held just one rally with a Senate candidate — Republican Marco Rubio in Florida on Saturday. Palin did a joint Fox News appearance with Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul (R) on Sept. 19.

.... Her endorsement proved helpful in several Republican primaries, but now debate moderators from Alaska to Florida are asking Republicans whether they believed Palin is qualified to be president.

“I don’t know anything about her schedule or her plans,” said Nachama Soloveichik, spokesman for Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R), who was surprised by Palin’s endorsement last week. “Pat’s had a schedule for this week and next week pretty much set in stone. He’s really focused on his schedule.”

Toomey’s campaign had no warning before the former governor endorsed his Senate bid on Facebook on Oct. 19, a day before his first debate with Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak .

Toomey was confronted with the endorsement during the debate and in subsequent interviews, consistently refusing to comment on Palin’s presidential credentials or even say her name, and instead he offered his gratitude “for the support I have from people all across the political spectrum.”

South Carolina teeming with GOP hopefuls

Yesterday, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum were all in South Carolina, and this weekend Mike Huckabee makes the trip.

a. Gingrich held a "jobs here, jobs now" rally.

b. Santorum held three events in Greenville.

c. Mitt Romney campaigned for Nikki Haley in both Summerville and Bamberg.

d. Mike Huckabee will be in Greenville for a GOTV rally on Saturday evening.

Newt: Run looks "increasingly" practical

From Karen Tumulty's new look at Newt Gingrich and his plans.

Gingrich says he won't make an official announcement until early next year.

But he notes that he is already "transitioning" his four businesses so that they don't become political impediments.

The remaining question, Gingrich said in an interview, is "whether or not it is practical, which I increasingly think it is."

Gingrich acknowledged that he wouldn't be the GOP establishment's pick - or an immediate front-runner.

He also said he knows the race for the nomination would be a steep climb "when you have someone as well financed as [former Massachusetts governor Mitt] Romney would be."

(emphasis added) Btw, Newt's brought up the idea that he might not have enough money to run before.

In Iowa last month.

"I don't have enormous personal wealth, I'm not in a position to go out and write a $100 million check to myself."

Keep in mind that Newt's 527 group -- American Solutions -- has brought in almost $10 million this year, and even though it's not a PAC, he's been able to do all sorts of Presidential things with it, even if he can't contribute directly to candidates through it.

Ken Vogel, earlier this month.

[American Solutions] spent $3.7 million in the third quarter, including several thousand dollars on “major donor gifts” from Amazon.com. But the bulk of its spending went towards funding a 20-plus-person staff, polling, a slick web presence and Gingrich and his staffers’ travels around the country.

.... This year, it’s brought in a total of $9.9 million, more than the PAC fundraising of Gingrich’s next three most active fundraising potential rivals for the nomination. According to reports filed this week, former Gov. Massachusetts Mitt Romney’s PACs raised a total of $5.1 million this year, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s PAC brought in $2.5 million, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s groups raised nearly $2.1 million.

It's hard to believe anyone will buy (pun, there) the pauper card, but it looks like he'll try to play it against Romney (Pawlenty will have a more credible argument there).

"Todd is like Captain America"

That's Mark Burnett, producer of Sarah Palin's new reality show, describing the First Dude, while the New York Post's Michael Starr takes you the rest of the way there in his review of "Sarah Palin's Alaska."

The bulk of the first episode, which premieres Nov. 14, takes place at the Palin home on Lake Lucille in Wasilla, where the opening scene features Sarah and her daughters in the kitchen. Each member of the family is then introduced. (Their names are superimposed over their freeze-framed image.)

The rest of the episode follows the family as they go fishing in Big River Lake -- where they're menaced by a bear -- and then take an RV trip to Denali National Park (joined by Sarah's parents, Chuck and Sally).

.... Part of the second episode shows Sarah, Todd and Bristol visiting a target range to shoot clay pigeons with rifles. (Todd's an expert shot, Sarah's pretty good but Bristol comes up empty.)

P.S. Alaska has 98% of the nation's grizzly population (So that's where that came from).

Romney dismisses Biden visit

The AP:

Mitt Romney thinks Vice President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to Massachusetts on behalf of [Democrat congressional candidate William Keating] will be as effective as President Barack Obama’s last-minute trip when he was trying to stop Scott Brown’s election.

In a statement Wednesday, the former Massachusetts governor and 2008 GOP presidential contender said, "It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now."

Keating and Republican, Jeffrey Perry, are running for a retiring Democrat's seat.

Welcoming "The Father of Mandated Health Care"

SC Gov. candidate, Vincent Sheheen, greets Mitt Romney's arrival to the state on behalf of Nikki Haley with a press release:

Romney, who has contributed over $60,000 to Haley's campaign, is "the intellectual father of national health reform" after he enacted "Romneycare" in Massachusetts.

Sheheen for Governor Communications Director Kristin Cobb had this to say: "Nikki Haley has spent months misleading the voters on Vincent Sheheen's position on mandated healthcare, but brings in the father of mandated healthcare to campaign with her. She claims to be against healthcare mandates but I guess $60,000 will make her ignore the facts.

[Hat tip: @Shushannah Walshe and @Sam Jacobs]

DNC targets 9 Republicans for 2012

Rick Klein:

The Democratic National Committee formally has asked the Pentagon for reams of correspondence between military agencies and nine potential Republican presidential candidates, a clear indication that Democrats are building opposition-research files on specific 2012 contenders even before the midterm elections.

Those Republicans: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and brace yourself -- Bobby Jindal.

It's hard to find someone who thinks Jindal will run in 2012, and I'm guessing the DNC's query is based on the fact that they (and others) think he'll be a top tier Veep possibility.

[Hat tip: Minnesota Public Radio]

Palin sets conditions for run

She tells ET it would be a last resort, and even though she's said similar things before, watch the video -- particularly on the bolded text -- and it sounds like she's having, at least here in October 2010, some reservations.

"It's going to entail a discussion with my family [and] a real close look at the lay of the land, and to consider whether there are those with that common sense, conservative, pro-Constitution passion, whether there are already candidates out there who can do the job, and I'll get to be their biggest supporter and biggest help-mate, if they will have me.

Or whether there's nobody willing to do it, to make the tough choices and not care what the critics are going to say about you, just going forward according to what I believe the priorities should be."

If there's nobody else to do it, then of course I would believe that we should do this."

UPDATE: I took down the vid, b/c it kept automatically loading, but you can check it out here.

[Hat tip: NewsOk and Buzz Tracker]

Murkowski wouldn't support Palin

Lisa Murkowski, during a debate in Alaska Wednesday night.

“If she were to run right now, I would not support her as president.”

Meanwhile, Chris Cillizza says Murkowski might have turned the corner.

There is a growing sense among the Republican professional political class that Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is on the verge of winning a three-way race next week. a victory that would make her the first write-in candidate to be elected to the Senate since Strom Thurmond (R-S.C.) in 1954.

"Murkowski has run a smart campaign and dedicated a lot of resources to educating voters about how to vote for her," said one senior GOP strategist. "Next to a hapless [Democratic nominee Scott] McAdams and disastrous [Republican nominee] Joe Miller, she has a decent shot to make history.

Murkowski has surged in recent weeks thanks to a series of stumbles by Miller, the man who ousted her in an Aug. 24 primary. Miller's struggles culminated Wednesday when a report surfaced that showed he had not only misused computers at a previous job for political purposes but had repeatedly lied about it.

[Hat tip: @RussWalker]

Evening eats

a. Can T-Paw turn the tea party into the T-Party?

b. Olivia Wilde is scared of Palin.

c. Another Democratic casualty of the oil spill.

d. T-Paw phone banks.

e. Barbour and Jindal's standing-only crowd.

f. What do you think of Rudy's portrait?

g. Santorum says it'll be "a slog".

h. Kasich gets Barbour, Pawlenty, and Christie on Friday.

i. Rick Perry is cruising.

j. I'm expecting more of these to pop up.

k. In case you missed it last night...

Rove: Palin reality show hurts her chances

Wow -- Karl Rove first took on (depending on how you define "took on") Christine O'Donnell; now he's got some candid remarks about Sarah Palin in a chat with the Telegraph:

"With all due candour, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel, I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of 'that helps me see you in the Oval Office’,”

More cajones...

He said Mrs Palin had done a “terrific job” in 2008 when Senator John McCain took her from near obscurity to the vice-presidential nomination, but added: “Being the vice-presidential nominee on the ticket is different from saying 'I want to be the person at the top of the ticket’.

“There are high standards that the American people have for it [the presidency] and they require a certain level of gravitas, and they want to look at the candidate and say 'that candidate is doing things that gives me confidence that they are up to the most demanding job in the world’.”

And more...

Mr Rove suggested that “outside of the true believers”, most Republican primary voters were still watching the race and would choose the candidate most suitable for the role. “They are going to be saying 'the person who can win is the person who proves to me that they are up to the job’,” he said.

But if you think Palin is getting picked on indiscriminately, that's not exactly true.

After Karl Rove questioned Christine O'Donnell's background, Sarah Palin dripped with condescension when asked about Rove's concerns on Fox.

Palin, September 15.

"Well, bless his heart. We love our friends there in the machine that the expert politicos -- those who say the GOP nominee is unelectable or that they're not gonna even try."

Newt reached out to Liberty University

Some of the politics surrounding Newt Gingrich's address to evangelical Liberty University today.

After his speech, Gingrich was scheduled to meet with some of the most influential Christian conservatives in the country at Liberty, including Tom Minnery, executive vice president of Focus on the Family, Craig Parshall, executive vice president of the National Religious Broadcasters and Jim Garlow, who led pastors in support of California's gay marriage ban in 2008.

Gingrich approached the school with the idea for his visit, according to Brett O'Donnell, a media representative for Liberty.

As for the substance of his remarks, they weren't anything we haven't heard from Newt.

"Imagine a small secular political elite imposing its radical values on a massive majority of worshippers," he said in a passage describing Poland under communism, according to remarks distributed by his spokesman. "You can see how strange Poland was - or maybe you can see how relevant this story is to America today."

DeMint PAC pulls in over $7 million

Jim DeMint's PAC, Senate Conservatives Fund, has raised $7 million. 70% was raised online and the average contribution was $45.

"Our members are not fat-cat contributors. They're retirees, stay-at-home moms, and small business owners. They've made small donations that are big sacrifices for their families, and they deserve the credit for our success this year."

Crist uses Palin against Rubio

Charlie Crist lumps Marco Rubio with Sarah Palin and the tea party (and reminds people near the end that he's way down -- on the ballot).

Barbour prepping

Tom Beaumont talked with Haley Barbour during the Gov's visit to Iowa.

Haley Barbour said he is doing some preliminary investigation about whether to seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, but does not plan to begin a thorough discussion of a campaign until after Tuesday’s midterm election.

“We’re trying to gather some information, and that sort of stuff,” Barbour said in a Des Moines Register interview after headlining a rally in Newton for Republican candidate for governor Terry Branstad.

“And I’m flattered that people come up to me and say if you run, I’ll help. But after Tuesday, we’ll sit down and see if there’s anything to think about.”

We all know these guys are prepping for it, but it's fun to hear them acknowledge it with something a tad more concrete.

Newt sounded like Barbour when he chatted with Fox earlier this month.

"We certainly are making provision so that if we did decide to run, we'd be able to."

And last month.

"I mean, we're doing all the research, we're laying out all the planning, we know in general terms what it would take just to get to a "yes".

The Foo Fighters with songs

Red Eye's "resident doom metal expert", Mike Huckabee riffs about metal band, Torche.

"It's Black Sabbath meets U2, mixed with a vat of delicious chocolate sauce.

It's Jane's Addiction, only louder and scarier and without the stupid makeup.

It's Nirvana without the depression.

It's the Foo fighters with, you know, songs.

.... Imagine if you wrapped a Percocet in a slab of bacon, fed it to a woolly mammoth and shouted 'Dance, Hairy Boyfriend, Dance."

That's Torche.

If you don't like Torche, I don't like you."

And Torche.



[Hat tip: Buzz Grinder]

Daniels' PAC spends big in Indiana

The Indy Star's Mary Beth Schneider notes that 40% of all the PAC's contributions have gone to just two candidates.

The governor's political action committee, Aiming Higher, has spent nearly $1 million so far to deliver control of the Indiana House of Representatives to Republicans, with more likely to be spent before voters go to the polls Tuesday.

While the money is spread among 27 House candidates and one Senate candidate, about 40 percent is devoted to two candidates: Kyle Hupfer, Daniels' former head of the Department of Natural Resources, who is trying to unseat Democratic incumbent Scott Reske in a Madison County district, and Bob Heaton, an insurance agent running for an open seat in a Vigo County district.

.... Voters are seeing that money on a daily basis, in the form of TV ads for Hupfer, Heaton and at least nine other GOP candidates.

Another important fact -- the state party that wins control gets to draw the new legislative maps.

Dems currently own the House, and were able to draw the maps in 1991 and 2001. So this is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for the GOP.

Rudy needles Bloomberg on term limits

Earlier this week, Michael Bloomberg announced he was backing a measure that would restore term limits on the NYC mayor's office.

At the unveiling of his portrait yesterday, Rudy Giuliani teased the 3-term mayor about it.

“There’s one thing you haven’t accomplished: I had four Yankee championships.”

Bloomberg, in his nearly nine years so far, has just one.

“And [by] my calculations, particularly if you’re supporting this term-limit thing, you’ve got three years,” Giuliani added.

Rudy: "It's always in your mind"

Yesterday, Rudy Giuliani told Maggie Haberman that he wasn't shutting the door on a 2012 run, and it looks like he told the WSJ the same thing.

“It’s always in your mind when you’ve done something like this, but right now I’m not thinking about it,” he said. “Right now, I’m campaigning for other Republicans all over the country.”

Scarborough: Palin might cost GOP majority

On Morning Joe today, Joe Scarborough said that Pat Leahy will be thanking Sarah Palin at some point in the future (ea).

If there had been a mainstream conservative--conservative--candidate [in Nevada]. So let me put it this way: right-wing freaks don't email me going "you're a RINO, you're a RINO."

. . . The fact that Republicans put Sharron Angle up is the only reason this race is within 10 points. Delaware: we know, Mike Castle, right now Mike Castle would be measuring curtains and we would be talking about a Republican majority in the United States Senate.

I hope that Sarah Palin, and other people--Pat [Buchanan] is laughing--but I really hope that Sarah Palin is proud of herself. I really hope she is.

Because let me tell you something, Pat.

When Barack Obama selects his next Supreme Court justice, and Democrats are in charge by one, and it's Pat Leahy that's going to be running the Supreme Court nomination processes, I hope social conservatives like you are staring at Sarah Palin and saying "thank you, Sarah Palin, because you just made sure the person running this committee would be Pat Leahy from Vermont instead of someone from the Republican party."

So far, Palin's picks haven't cost the Republican party anything tangible.

But if some of her candidates go down in what would have been easy GOP wins, she might face some conservative wrath.

(On second thought. She won't. A Mother Jones cartoon like this will more than make up for a couple Senate seats).

"We are all tea partiers"

Mitt Romney to Shushannah Walshe.

“I think someone said, ‘We are all Tea Partiers’ and I think that is probably true to a certain extent in our party because of those common views on smaller government and lower taxes.

That’s a theme I think that our party embraces quite broadly and generally."

Btw, Walshe said Romney was "much more at ease greeting supporters" at his events in Wisconsin and Minnesota last week, which sort of speaks to my previous post's point.

GOP stars unite for Miller

Jordan Fabian notes that it's not just Sarah and Todd Palin who'll be stumping for Joe Miller tomorrow at the Dena'ina Civic and Convention Center in Anchorage.

Mike Huckabee, Jim DeMint, and Michele Bachmann will plug Miller (via video), as well.

Romney goes casual in Iowa

Tom Beaumont on Mitt Romney's speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa yesterday.

Romney was the exception on the stage at the college, where all Republican candidates were in suits, and all the men in neckties.

Romney was in blue jeans and an open-collared shirt.

In life and in movies, the biggest cheese in the room has full rights to wear whatever he wants.

Also, this fits with Romney's new, less-coiffed persona he might be trying to cultivate.

Barbour's contributions signal larger ambitions?

The Fix:

[Haley Barbour] has given $440,000 to aspiring 2010 candidate and party committees via his Haley's PAC, another clear signal that the Mississippi governor is seriously considering running for president in 2012.

Barbour has contributed to all 37 GOP gubernatorial candidates -- directly or through the state party -- and has also made a slew of donations to GOP Senate and House candidates.

In the first half of October, Barbour's PAC contributed to Senate candidates in more than 20 states, including Ken Buck in Colorado, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Sharron Angle in Nevada, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Mike Lee in Utah, Joe Miller in Alaska, Rep. John Boozman in Arkansas, Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois, Linda McMahon in Connecticut, Marco Rubio in Florida, Rep. Jerry Moran in Kansas, former Rep. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and even long-shot Joe DioGuardi in New York.

You can check out Haley's PAC here.

Two states at one blow

Another quip from Mitch Daniels as he introduced Chris Christie at an Indiana Republican party dinner last night.

"When I think of New Jersey, I think: Illinois without the high standards."

Santorum pushes for constitutional amendment in Iowa

Rick Santorum was in Iowa yesterday, where he attended a rally urging voters to oust three state Supreme Court justices for their role in legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.

In an interview following the rally, Santorum acknowledged that the Supreme Court ruling will remain in effect even if the three justices are removed.

But he said that removing the justices would send a powerful signal to legislators that they should place a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the ballot.

Santorum added that removing the justices might have an impact if the issue returns to the Supreme Court.

''Maybe the other four justices will think twice about how they will vote the next time,'' he said.

Daniels employs Sonny Bono

Mitch Daniels introduced Chris Christie at an Indiana Republican Party dinner last night with a fictitious exchange between himself and Murray Clark, chair of the state party.

"He said 'I got a whole new idea. We need a big name.'

He said, 'I found an agent, says he can get Bono.'

I said, 'I thought Sonny skied into a tree somewhere.'

He said, 'No, no, no -- the European guy.'

You can watch here -- at beginning of vid.

Perry targets Washington

Dallas Morning News:

Rick Perry has weighed into Washington state politics by sending a letter to executives at 90 large companies, saying if their state passes an income tax on the wealthy, they should move to Texas.

On the ballot next week for Washingtonians is the I-1098 referendum to impose the state's first income tax, which would place a 5 percent tax on those earning over $200,000 and a 9 percent tax on those with incomes over $500,000.

"If Washington doesn't want your business, Texas does. Texas has no personal income tax and no interest in getting one," Perry wrote in the letter sent Friday that went to such businesses as Amazon, Starbucks and Microsoft.

Romney: Funny the way politics works

Mitt Romney, at a campaign stop in Dubuque, Iowa on Tuesday.

“It’s always nice to have friends who wish you the best, and as you know, in politics the number of people who say they were with you last time is substantially larger than the number of people that actually were with you last time."

Palin to stump for Miller

Shira Toeplitz says Sarah Palin will headline a rally for Joe Miller this week in Anchorage.

Palin has been giving the race more attention, as of late. Yesterday, she hammered Lisa Murkowski in a Facebook post after the Senator, Miller, and their Democratic opponent, Scott McAdams had debated.

A CNN/Time poll (pdf) released on October 20 showed Murkowski and Miller tied (big caveat: Murkowski's name was listed as a write-in option, which might have inflated her support).

Rudy leaves door open

Maggie Haberman, earlier this evening.

Rudy Giuliani just told me at City Hall at his portrait unveiling that "the door's not closed" on the possibility of him running for president again in 2012.

He said he won't think about anything until after the November midterm elections, and that he gets encouraged by people as he travels.

I asked, "So the door's not closed?" and he replied, "The door's not closed."

I'd heard from some Republican donors and insiders that he's discussed the possibility with them in recent months as well.

Here's a quick case for why Rudy might do better in 2012 than 2008.

First, Aesthetics. Right now, strong and brusque sells, and that's what Rudy does best.

Earlier this month, he told the New York Post that he was Chris Christie before Chris Christie was Chris Christie.

"What's making him popular is that he's not afraid to be called a bully.

I used to be proud to be called a bully, and Christie would call me and tell me, 'I'm going to do it just the way you did'.

Second, the tea party and GOP's current focus is on economic; not social issues. The latter were what felled Rudy, and face it, those would still be an extraordinary hurdle to climb.

But take a look at the coverage of Chris Christie. No one's saying "And he's pro-life, too!" They're just swooning over his tough union-busting.

At the very least -- considering his disappointing '08 performance -- there's no place for him to go but up.

State BUCKET lists

Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Haley Barbour will all be in crucial 2012 states in the last week of the 2010 cycle.

Michael O'Brien notes that Romney will makes stops for candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina this week.

a. Haley Barbour will stump for candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire.

b. Rick Santorum will campaign in Iowa and South Carolina.

c. And Tim Pawlenty will be in Iowa, October 31.

But that doesn't mean those guys will be spending all their time in those states.

Tom Scheck notes that Pawlenty will also be in Texas, New Mexico, Georgia, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. And Barbour's got a similarly busy schedule.

Barbour and T-Paw both hold leadership positions in the RGA, so their nomadic activity can serve two purposes.

Pence for Gov?

Ben Smith and Jake Sherman on a guy who looks to be aiming for the White House or governor's mansion.

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana is considering stepping down from his post in the GOP leadership in preparation for a possible bid for president or governor in 2012.

Pence, a darling of the conservative movement, would leave the leadership job with a blunt explanation to colleagues that he can’t commit to a two-year term in House leadership, a source familiar with his deliberations told POLITICO Tuesday.

Pence believes it would be inappropriate to stay at the GOP conference post — the No. 3 spot in the House Republican hierarchy — unless he could stay through 2012, the source said.

He's taking a bus tour across Indiana, October 27-29, in support of state-wide candidates (see itinerary here), and that kind of state-wide barnstorming seems to indicate he's thinking more seriously about a gubernatorial run.

Then there's the case of a curious reelection ad he came out with in late September.

At the time, people remarked on its broader appeal, and when you watch it again, you'll see that it could be setting up a gubernatorial run nicely.

Newt confirms: It's March

Last month, Newt Gingrich extended his self-imposed deadline on announcing a Presidential decision from January or February to March, 2011.

And while in Pennsylvania today, he confirmed it.

Newt Gingrich said this morning he'll decide by March whether to jump into an increasingly crowded field of Republican challengers to President Barack Obama in 2012.

In an interview outside Republican state headquarters, Gingrich, the architect of the Republicans' 1994 "Contract with America," said he and wife, Callista, were "doing everything we can" to get the couple's business interests in order so "if we do decide to run, we can do so."

Btw, to show just how long these cycles are these days... On November 12, 2008 -- just over one week from Barack Obama's election -- Gingrich said he was thinking about a Presidential run and would decide in January 2011.

[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]

Shep Smith lands Palin interview

Nearly every Fox star has interviewed Sarah Palin since she signed with the network -- Bill O'Reilly (sometimes contentiously), Glenn Beck (always fulsomely), Sean Hannity (always fulsomely), and Greta Van Susteren (sometimes fulsomely).

Now Fox's last star anchor will chat with her. Shep Smith told The View this morning that he'll interview her on election night.

The key question: will they talk before or after results from Delaware officially come in, and will Smith badger Palin about her role in essentially conceding that Senate seat to the Dems?

Shep is coy:

"I'm very interested to see how her candidates do that night."

Vid from Mediaite.

The Blade earns his name

Erin McPike writes about Mitch Daniels' work slashing Indiana's government workforce, while actually adding police officers and child case workers during the same time.

According to data provided by Indiana officials to RealClearPolitics, 29,008 people were employed by the state's government as of Sept. 30.

That number is down from 35,276 full-time employees when Daniels took office in January of 2005 - a reduction of 17.8 percent during Daniels's nearly six years in office.

Indiana employed 29,210 state workers in 1975, meaning the state has fewer full-time workers now than it had 35 years ago.

"The vast majority of this reduction was achieved through attrition rather than layoffs," said Daniels's chief political aide, Eric Holcomb.

She also notes that there's a growing divide between some tea party candidates who favor abolishing federal agencies entirely and other conservatives who want to streamline things.

As I've before, efficiency and streamlining government are often cheap catchphrases for pols from both parties, but Daniels has made that a centerpiece of his time in office -- much to the chagrin of the Indiana bureaucracy.

You can read a chronicle of some of his efforts -- and bipartisan resistance to those efforts -- here.

Romney in Iowa

Mitt Romney's itinerary today.

a. A "road to victory" rally in Cedar Rapids with gubernatorial candidate, Terry Brandstad, and his lieutenant governor nominee, Kim Reynolds.

b. Another "road to victory" rally with the same candiates in Dubuque.

c. The Scott County GOP Reagan Dinner tonight, where Romney will speak.

Santorum tempers expectations

Rick Santorum was on Greta Van Susteren's show Monday night via satellite from Iowa (seemingly, his two favorite places).

He paid special attention to checking expectations that a GOP majority in the House will produce the sudden results the tea party might hope for.

"You have to set expectations.... I keep saying that in 2010 -- this election is about stopping more bad things from happening, but you're going to have to have a second election in 2012 if you want to really start turning things around, and I believe the tea party out there is sophisticated enough to understand that if Obama is still there, the chance for us to do major changes in government in the direction they'd like to see is going to be pretty limited."

Palin leads Obama in Texas

According to a new Lighthouse Opinion Polling and Research survey, Sarah Palin beats Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, 51%-36%.

Those numbers are similar to the group's poll of the governor's race, where Rick Perry leads Bill White, 48%-37%.

Texas has proven to be a friendly state to Palin. A UT/Texas Tribune poll last month showed her leading in a 2012 primary by 5% over Newt Gingrich.

A Public Policy Polling poll released earlier that month showed Newt and Palin flipped, with Newt taking the top spot and Palin coming in second.

It's not surprising Newt and Palin perform so well in Texas -- after all, that's where Rick Perry burst onto the national scene with his talk of secession, and rode the anti-Washington wave to a surprisingly easy victory over Kay Bailey Hutchison in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

In a WSJ/NBC poll last week, Newt and Palin were tops among Republican voters who sympathize more strongly with the tea party.

As long as we're on Texas, that UT football team sure does suck, doesn't it?

[Hat tip: Conservatives4Palin]