Happy New Year's eve

Happy New Year and New Year's eve, everyone! Be safe, and I'll see you back on Sunday.

Newt gauging strength in Nevada

The Las Vegas Sun's Delen Goldberg has a great read on tweaks to Nevada's caucuses for 2012 (votes will now be binding for delegates) and some early interest in the state from Newt Gingrich.

An advance man for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped into Las Vegas this month to meet with Republican and conservative players, gauge the strength of the state GOP and try to anticipate what a primary might bring.

Gregg Phillips, a software company owner from Texas and close friend of Gingrich, spoke to Republicans and schmoozed at a happy hour for conservatives and libertarians. (Gingrich won a presidential straw poll conducted at the gathering.)

“If the speaker decides to step into the race, he wants to do so with the full knowledge that he understands how the people of Nevada, of South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa feel about the values he believes in,” Phillips said later.

“Should he announce that he’s interested, Nevada would be one of the most important states on his list, where he will not only spend time but money.”

Scarborough squashes ticket talk (again)

In a new interview with Parade, Joe Scarborough says he won't be joining an indie presidential ticket with Michael Bloomberg, but might run for some kind of elective office again.

Q: How seriously are you considering a return to politics?

A: My wife always tells people, "He's not going to be able run to for anything because I'm not going to let him start a campaign." Look what's happened to Barack Obama over the last two years or George Bush for eight. It's a blood sport.

But at some point I may feel the need to run for office again.

....

Q: Might that ticket be you and New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, as the rumors say?

If someone could figure out which one of us has the capacity to be vice president, I'd like that person to explain it.

I've been around Mayor Bloomberg, and people who've been around me would laugh at the notion that either of us [could settle for being second-in-command].

Chris Christie is another pol who's used the Alpha Dog line to beat back speculation of a Veep run.

Last month, he told David Gregory.

"Can you see me as somebody's vice president, David.... I would feel bad for that poor man or woman."

And in October, he played a variation on the same theme.

"Can you see me as somebody's vice president? I mean, who would be that poor guy?

You know, I just don't think that my personality is necessarily suited to being No. 2.”

It's actually a smart way to deflect Veep speculation, if only because it reminds the top of the ticket that he or she could find all their oxygen sucked up by their running mate.

[Hat tip: Hill Blog Briefing Room]

HuckPAC draws attention to 2012 poll

The web team at Mike Huckabee's HuckPAC posts "Huckabee gaining strength in new 2012 poll", which then links to CNN's survey showing more Republicans "very" or "somewhat" likely to support him than any other potential '12 nominee.

Of the '12 potentials, Huck has been the most forward about his lofty standing in the polls, perhaps because he feels perpetually underestimated.

Earlier this month, he told Newsmax about a prospective bid.

"I'd be less than honest if I said, 'Oh no, I never think about it.'

Of course I do, especially when poll-after-poll puts me in position that shows me in a real position to win all the way to the White House."

That was just two days after saying this to The Politico.

“I just don’t understand how it is that a person can read these polls day after day and the narrative is constantly everybody but me."

He continued:

“The polls are consistently favorable, putting me either at the top of every poll or right near it."

Mitch Daniels hints at helping Barbour

Long-time, close friends, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels, talk to Jonathan Martin about the prospect of both running for the GOP nomination.

Daniels is candid: He'd be less inclined to launch a White House bid if Barbour does the same.

"My first inclination would be to help Haley," said Daniels, adding: "It would be unusual [if we both ran]. On every past occasion, we've been teammates."

Asked if the prospect of facing his old pal would make a presidential run less appetizing, Barbour is less uneasy about the idea.

"If I thought we would have some falling out it would, but I really don't think we would have a falling out," said the Mississippian. "I think too much of him."

And Barbour said he's even urged Daniels to get in the race.

"I told him that, even if I run, you ought to run," he recalled. "The public needs more good choices."

Sarah Palin's Alaska on DVD

Take a look at the cover of the $29.95 Special Edition DVD (available for pre-order now) and see if it strikes you as a reality show about the Palins or, conversely, a documentary on Alaska.

Evening eats

a. Flying to Barbour's defense.

b. A Palin top-10 list.

c. NRO's 2011 predictions.

d. How do you say what everyone knows you're going to say?

e. Gloom for Palin?

f. Bobby Jindal finishes the year strong.

g. "I pull up to the front of your driveway with magic soaking my spine."

Romney's donation

Dave Weigel checks out Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin's 11th hour donations in the 2010 cycle, including this.

[Romney] gave $5000 to New Hampshire U.S. Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne on October 4, 2010. Why is that significant?

The New Hampshire primary had happened three weeks earlier, and Lamontagne lost to Kelly Ayotte, whom Romney had maxed out to. Lamontagne had just signaled that he'd remain a force in the state.

Starting anew in New Hampshire?

David Bernstein has a good look at the new "New Hampshire", a state whose Republican ranks -- both formal and informal -- have undergone a sea change since November.

The result, according to political observers in the state, is a power vacuum in the state's Republican circles, right on the eve of the presidential nomination battle.

Or, from the perspective of a Republican presidential wannabe, a slew of total unknowns whose opinion could make or break you.

As New Hampshire vet, Mike Dennehy, explains:

"There are a whole bunch of new leaders in the state who have never really talked to Romney — let alone [Tim] Pawlenty or the others.

The opinion-leader crowd in New Hampshire is really a clean slate."

Gary Johnson: Excess spending biggest threat

As befits someone who thinks the U.S. should get out of Afghanistan and Iraq "tomorrow", former NM Gov. Gary Johnson tells Newsmax safe-haven-for-terrorism-sherrorism.

"I think that the biggest threat to national security is the fact that we spend more money than what we take in.

I think the biggest threat to our way of life is the fact that we have spent more money than we can afford, putting us in a state of bankruptcy, and unless we address this situation now, I think that we’re going to be left with no country at all.”

Btw -- even though Mitch Daniels is much more hawkish on the wars in the middle east -- he presented this country's debt in similarly bleak terms during a November interview with Fox News' Bret Baier.

BAIER: The debt problem -- you see as a national security issue.

DANIELS: I absolutely do. I do believe at this point in our history the gravest security threats to us will come in a rush if we go broke.

Is it fair to merge issues and frame a question going forward: Who's most hawkish on the debt?

Brown to launch book tour next year

Felicia Sonmez reports that Scott Brown will tour Massachusetts on behalf of his upcoming memoir, Against All Odds, in February 2011.

Brown's mini-tour will likely give him a boost going into what's sure to be a challenging re-election bid.

Reportedly, it's a seven-figure book deal.

The Hill's Jordan Fabian:

Democrats in dark-blue Massachusetts have made Brown target No. 1 but Brown is preparing well in advance for a tough race.

Brown could also face a primary challenge from the right: he voted with Democrats on unemployment insurance, a long-stalled nuclear arms treaty with Russia and a repeal of the military's "Don't ask, don't tell" law banning openly gay service members in the past year.

Brown advisers told The Hill earlier this month that the book will reveal more about the freshman senator's tough upbringing and cement his image as a genuine representative for Massachusetts.

Is Huck the front-runner?

Salon's Steve Kornacki arrives at the conclusion, partly through the field's weakness and partly through Mike Huckabee's strength.

My instinct has been to dismiss him as a serious contender, partly because I've assumed his appeal is too narrow (religious conservatives in the South and in caucus states), and partly because of all of the pardons he doled out as governor of Arkansas.

But it's getting harder to ignore the polls: The same CNN survey that shows Palin's GOP support collapsing also shows -- not for the first time -- that Huckabee is the most popular '12 prospect in the party.

Kornacki's caveat (sounds like a thriller novel) is that Huck could tank once his rivals start attacking him on familiar grounds like pardons and fiscal policy, but isn't that buffered by the fact they are, exactly, familiar grounds and he's been through all this before and come out this popular?

[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]

DeMint compares Palin's impact to Reagan's

Jim DeMint, to The Politico.

"We’ve never spoken, but she left me a nice message, and I believe she’s done more for the Republican Party than anyone since Ronald Reagan.”

That being said, he's not ready to endorse her or anyone else quite yet, and that's because staying away from a quick endorsement means you're staying in the thoughts, prayers, and wishes of the '12 contenders.

DeMint easily won reelection this fall against obscure Democrat Alvin Greene — but that didn't stop Thune from pouring in $8,000, Palin from giving $7,500, Romney from donating $5,000, Pawlenty from dishing out $3,000 and Santorum from writing him a $1,000 check.

In an interview, DeMint made clear that he’s getting a lot of interest already.

“No one has specifically asked for my endorsement, but a lot of them are staying in touch,” DeMint said. “And I’m very interested in it, and I have a lot of good friends who might run. ... Just conversations, e-mails, number of folks who are interested in the issues, not just running for president. During this tax deal debate, earmark debate, I had a lot of support coming from Romney and others.

If you read the rest of the piece, you'll find South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson, Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, and NH Sen. Kelly Ayotte similarly smothered by love.

Evening eats

a. Christie tries to weather the storm.

b. A wrinkle in Bristol's AZ plans.

c. National Review sides with Palin in her battle against Michelle.

d. Florida Republicans (still) pine for Bush.

e. Palin's emails are delayed.

f. This one is Christie's problem.

g. T-Paw winds down.

h. Michael Bloomberg regrets everything.

Tim Pawlenty donates big "veto pen"

Add some symbolism to Cato's "A".

Hot Dish Politics:

With just a week remaining in office, Gov. Tim Pawlenty donated an oversized “veto pen” Monday to the Minnesota Historical Society in an attempt to highlight his legacy as the state’s most prolific user of the veto.

.... The governor’s office said Monday that the oversized pen was part of a collection of documents and artifacts that Pawlenty -- who is considering a run for president -- turned over from his eight years in office.

Also, adds a physical artifact to his rhetorical case, articulated last month.

"There's other times when substance and track record and results are more important, and right now, I'd put my record up against any governor in the country."

Daniels muses on physical imperfections

Mitch Daniels talks with Mark Mellinger.

Mark Mellinger: "Many have said you [would] have a lot going against you if you were running for president. And some obstacles you just can't help. One is that you're short."

Mitch Daniels: "I don't dispute it. You know, if it comes down to height and hair, I guess we won't- wouldn't do too well."

Note: this is the third post of the day from a great interview Mark Mellinger conducted with Mitch Daniels.

Breaking three separate topics into three separate posts from one interview is particularly handy on December 28.

Palin unpopular in battleground states

Public Policy Polling releases numbers measuring Sarah Palin's favorability ratings in nine key states.

Montana 44%/50% for -6%.

Ohio 37%/52% for -15%.

North Carolina 36%/57% for -21%.

Florida 36%/57% for -21%.

Virginia 35%/58% for -23%.

Wisconsin 35%/58% for -23%.

Minnesota 35%/60% for -25%.

Alaska 33%/58% for -25%.

Michigan 34%/60% for -26%.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column, noting Palin's shift in rhetoric that stressed her electability. In olden days, she said she'd only run if a constitutional-conservative didn't step up, but recently, she's tweaked the condition a bit by saying the candidate had to be "electable".

In doing so, she stressed her own electability.

She told Barbara Walters:

"I would run if I believe that other candidates willing to put themselves forward in the name of public service — if they don’t have a shot at winning, I would offer myself up.”

These numbers from PPP show that she has a formidable climb on the electability front, as well.

Mitch Daniels: Let Palin make her case

Also, from Mark Mellinger's interview with Mitch Daniels:

Mellinger: "Do you think Sarah Palin can win the presidency in a general election?"

Daniels: "I don't know. No one knows right now. "

Mellinger: "Does she represent the best and brightest the Republican Party has to offer in 2012?"

Daniels: "[She] hasn't been fully tested, you know. Give her a chance.

Give her a chance. She's been heard from lately on some issues for the first time and I thought she wrote about them and spoke about them pretty well."

Daniels: Truce equal opportunity offender

In an interview with Mark Mellinger, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels puts a little more meat on the definition of his now famed "truce" on social issues.

Mellinger: "This was not you saying 'I'm not going to work to appoint Supreme Court justices in the Alito or Roberts or Thomas mold.' It wasn't anything to alarm social conservatives."

Daniels: "First of all, it wasn't directed to them. It was directed as much to people who, for instance, are very aggressively trying to change the definition of marriage... Stand down for awhile. Let's save America."

UPDATE: Someone pointed me in the right direction -- I misinterpreted Daniels' reply, which was a hit on gay marriage proponents; not opponents.

CNN 2012: Palin dips

CNN is out with a new poll today, showing support for Sarah Palin falling dramatically among GOP voters.

SARAH PALIN:

December 2008:

67% Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Sarah Palin for the nomination.

December 2010:

49% said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Sarah Palin for the nomination.

Note: That's an 18% drop.

MIKE HUCKABEE:

December 2008: 65% Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Mike Huckabee for the nomination.

December 2010: 67% of Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Mike Huckabee for the nomination.

Note: That's a 2% jump.

MITT ROMNEY:

December 2008:

61% of Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Mitt Romney for the nomination.

December 2010:

59% of Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Mitt Romney for the nomination.

Note: That's a 2% drop.

NEWT GINGRICH:

December 2008: 52% of Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Newt Gingrich for the nomination.

December 2010: 54% of Republicans said they were "very" or "somewhat likely" to support Newt Gingrich for the nomination.

Note: That's a 2% jump.

Summary: Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney's numbers have, essentially, stayed the same and within the margin of error.

On the other hand, Sarah Palin's numbers have shown a large dip -- further evidence that her rehabilitation has to begin pretty quickly if she's going to be in this thing.

Romney's support collapses in Florida

It's not quite Rudy Giuliani-bad yet, but Mitt Romney has been sinking further and further in Florida, according to Public Policy Polling.

In March, he led Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin in a 3-person race by 31% and 34%, respectively.

In July, PPP added Newt Gingrich to the polling, and that cut Romney's lead to just 8% over Palin and Newt.

In October, his lead dipped to just 6%.

And now, he's actually losing to Mike Huckabee by 2%.

FLORIDA 2012 Matchup:

1. Mike Huckabee 23%

2. Mitt Romney 21%

3. Newt Gingrich 18%

4. Sarah Palin 13%

5. Ron Paul 8%

6. Tim Pawlenty 4%

7. Mitch Daniels 2%

8. John Thune 1%

Favorability numbers:

a. Mike Huckabee 67%/20% for +47%.

b. Mitt Romney 61%/22% for +39%.

c. Sarah Palin 61%/32% for +29%.

d. Newt Gingrich 59%/24% for +35%.

Pollster Tom Jensen interprets.

Why has Romney fallen so far? I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin.

Palin's favorability numbers with GOP voters in Florida are a good deal worse than they are most places and Romney did well in those earlier surveys as one of the few named alternatives to her.

As more response options were provided in later polls the anti-Palin sentiment was diffused across several candidates and Romney's mile wide but inch deep support declined further and further and further to where it is now.

Gingrich, Palin lead in North Carolina

A new Public Policy Polling survey (pdf) shows Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin deadlocked in a 2012 North Carolina primary (there's a fascinating P.S. to this one, too).

1. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich 21%

3. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee 18%

5. Mike Huckabee 18%

6. Ron Paul 7%

7. Tim Pawlenty 3%

8. John Thune and Mitch Daniels 1%

Favorability Ratings:

a. Mike Huckabee 71%/16% for +55%.

b. Sarah Palin 67%/25% for +42%.

c. Newt Gingrich 61%/21% for +40%.

d. Mitt Romney 57%/22% for +35%.

Notes: To continue beating what's by now a very dead horse, Mike Huckabee is the only GOP contender whose favorability ratings with women are higher than with men.

And true enough, women prefer him for the GOP nomination, while men prefer Newt Gingrich.

Good news/bad news for Mitt Romney, and good news/bad news for Sarah Palin.

The only age group Romney wins is the +65 set, which shows he's not corralling much of the energy of, let's say, phone bankers for free. The good news is that older voters are more reliable at actually voting.

The good news for Sarah Palin is that she's knocking 'em dead among 18-29 year-olds, and that set brings a lot of energy, but the bad news is that young people are less reliable at showing up to the polls.

Now here's the fascinating P.S.

PPP released a poll one week ago showing Mike Huckabee as the only Republican who could beat Obama in a general in North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Sarah Palin -- who ties Gingrich in the primary poll -- actually loses North Carolina in a general to Obama by 14%.

Gingrich is also subject to the same phenomenon.

He ties Palin for the lead in the primary, but has the second worst showing of any GOP contender in a North Carolina general election matchup, losing to the POTUS by 6%.

So this is a little snapshot of the oft-discussed phenomenon -- Palin scores big in primaries, but loses big in generals.

Evening eats

a. Michael Barone handicaps Obama's 2012 chances.

b. Behind the scenes with Chris Christie's right-hand guy.

c. Is Scott Brown in danger?

d. Gaffes that shouldn't be.

e. Top 12 political surprises of the year.

f. The Wall Street Journal on Palin vs. (Michelle) Obama.

g. Christie takes some heat from the snow.

Sanford's next stop

From the AP's exit interview with Mark Sanford (ea):

.... the two-term governor says he's not sure what's next and talks vaguely about writing a book or going back into business.

"It's an interesting spot to be at, because my nature is always to have a next plan, but on this one I don't," said Sanford, a 50-year-old former developer-turned-congressman.

All he'll say for now is that he plans to take his son's green pickup truck and head toward home on the state's southern coast, though he's not sure exactly where he'll live.

"I'm driving east on 26 and beyond that, it's a new adventure and we'll figure out the next chapter of life," he said.

From Noel Coward's Sail Away.

A different shore
New worlds to gaze upon
The strange excitement of an unfamiliar shore.

One more goodbye
One more illusion gone
Just cut your losses and move on once more.

Palin explains "refudiate"

On her reality show last night, Sarah Palin explained away "refudiate."

While checking her BlackBerry during a logging trip, the 46-year-old politico complained to her husband, Todd, that "refudiate" was a top Google search term only because she mis-typed a tweet.

.... "Ground Zero Mosque supporters: doesn't it stab you in the heart, as it does ours throughout the heartland?" she tweeted. "Peaceful Muslims, pls refudiate."

But the New York Daily News is onto her, showing this older clip of Palin using the word.



Who hasn't had a similar slip of tongue? In no way will this damage her campaign to become resident and chef executive of the United States.

Barbour flies the friendly skies

Ben Smith and Byron Tau draw attention to the Mississippi state plane that Gov. Haley Barbour has been flying across the U.S. in service of both legitimate economic interests and ones that are sometimes more blurry.

Some of Barbour’s travel may well have been worth it to Mississippi, a state that is heavily dependent on federal funds.

But much of the time, he has used the plane to go to fundraisers for himself and other Republican candidates and committees, to football games and to at least one boxing match

.... Barbour has reimbursed the state for a handful of flights, but he has more often scheduled obscure official business to coincide with the business of politics, according to the manifest and logs.

For Barbour, this is far less damaging than his recent remarks on his hometown's civil rights struggle in the '60's, but it serves as a somewhat moderate distinction with other governors who are presidential prospects.

.... other governors eying a run for president have been careful to limit their use of state aircraft.

As Alaska governor, Sarah Palin famously bragged about selling the Alaska state jet on eBay. [Indiana Gov. Mitch] Daniels himself has scaled back out-of-state travel for all Indiana state employees.

And Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, active on the presidential circuit and vice chairman of the Republican Governors Association, typically flies commercial, an aide said.

Club for Growth praises Pence's prospects

Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, says Mike Pence is the right Mike.

"Mike has the retail appeal of Huckabee but is an across-the-board conservative with all the credentials.

There is no one else like that."

Read Neil King, Jr's full profile of Pence, out in today's WSJ.

It's a good primer for his primary appeal, and includes lots of laudatory quotes from key socially-conservative figures.

[Hat tip: RCP]

Hillary, Palin top most-admired list

A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman for the 9th straight year.

1. Hillary Clinton 17%

2. Sarah Palin 12%

3. Oprah Winfrey 11%

4. Michelle Obama 5%

5. Condoleezza Rice

6. Queen Elizabeth 2%

7. Angelina Jolie 1%

8. Margaret Thatcher 1%

9. (tied) Aung San Suu Kyi

9. (tied) Laura Bush

9. (tied) Barbara Bush

As Gallup notes, Clinton and Michelle Obama may be cannibalizing each other, each drawing support from Democrats.

That makes Hillary's ranking even more impressive.

Clinton has dominated the Most Admired Woman title for most of the past two decades, earning 15 No. 1 rankings since her first appearance on the list in 1992.

She joins Eleanor Roosevelt and Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis as first ladies whose strong popularity has extended well beyond her husband's presidency, although, given Clinton's post-White House political career, perhaps for different reasons.

For men, Barack Obama is out in front with 22%, followed by George W. Bush at 5%.

Toggling between Iran and Gosselin

On Fox yesterday, former Bush press secretary, Dana Perino, talked about the perils of multitasking between Iran and a reality show (watch at The Right Scoop).

"It's very discordant to read a USA Today op-ed like she [Sarah Palin] had this week about a nuclear Iran and then to have a little Twitter, a quick, cute thing on the Twitter, and then she's, you know, on the reality show, and it doesn't sound like her when you read the materials..... and authenticity matters almost more than ever."

And then to underscore the point.

"It's just weird to, at night, be having a camping trip with Kate Gosselin -- Kate+8 -- and then the next morning you read in USA Today this very serious and thoughtful piece about a nuclear Iran."

Christie questions New Year's resolutions on weight

The AP:

Chris Christie said he’s done making New Year’s resolutions because, like most of us, he has trouble keeping them.

The 48-year-old governor said he’s resolved to lose weight about 35 times, adding that the resolution has met with “varying degrees of success” over the years.

So, the governor has adopted a different tactic: He and his wife Mary Pat now make resolutions to each other.

He said they’ll sit down on New Year’s Eve and assess the year ahead.

Later, the pair compares notes “to see how well we do.”

Christie said making resolutions privately is a better alternative than making public pronouncements.

Daniels doesn't regret truce

In an interview with the Indianapolis Star, Mitch Daniels adamantly defends his call for a truce on social issues until economic ones (primarily the debt) are sorted out.

Reason: The debt is akin to a "foreign army massed at our border."

In that situation, Americans might table a "war on marriage" for the real thing.

Q: You said the next president would have to have a truce on social issues, and really came in the crosshairs of criticism for that.

A: Some. I got a ton of positive feedback, too.

Q: You haven't changed your mind that that's the right course?

A: No. I say that with enormous respect for the people who want to see gay marriage legalized or who have a strong view on some other such question and want to see don't ask, don't tell go away.

I've sort of come to think of it this way. If there were a foreign army massed at our border right now, I think most Americans would rush to do what they could to help defend the country and they'd find themselves figuratively in the trench next to people that are very different from them and that held different views. If the threat were defeated, we might go right back to our disagreements. That's all I'm saying.

If you don't believe that the threat is as serious as I do, then you see the arithmetic differently than I do. But if you do see that then I think it leads you to this conclusion. That's all I have to say about it. Believe me, I completely respect, in fact I share the depth of feeling on some of these questions with some people. I'm just looking at, shouldn't we save America first while there's time?

Mitch Daniels turning down debate invites

The Indy Star's Mary Beth Schneider has a great interview with Mitch Daniels -- some of which centers on 2012 talk.

Even though he's not officially running (yet), Daniels says he is "astonished at the number and the caliber of the people who have asked me to consider this."

More Q & A:

Q: There's a presidential debate in South Carolina in May, and one in New Hampshire in June.

A: (Invitations) are coming in. I've turned them all down. I think there will be some sooner than that. The new senator from Illinois called me, he's trying to get one together for Ronald Reagan's birthday, which is in February, as a thing for the Illinois party. I said, 'Sorry, Mark. I'll be otherwise occupied.'

Q: You said the picking's are slim. What is your honest assessment of the candidates already out there? Are they all qualified to be president and can any one of them win?

A: Oh, I think some of them can win. There's no way to know that this far out, but I think they could and I think potentially any of them is qualified. I'd say, however, it's too soon to say because to me the central qualification I hope to see in our next president, whoever that is, whichever party that is, is somebody who is willing to try to gather Americans together and save this nation before its debt destroys it.

Newt's daughter: Dad "very serious" about run

Newt Gingrich's daughter, Jackie Gingrich Cushman, gives one more reason why her dad actually is serious about a bid this time.

"He's very serious -- much more serious than he ever has been, and I can tell that because he actually sat down the two of us for two hours recently, and I don't think that's happened since I had children."

If you remember, Paul West reported earlier this month that Newt will discuss a prez run with his extended family over New Year's at the American Club resort in Wisconsin.

Vid via Human Events.

Kristol wants Christie to run

On Fox Sunday, Bill Kristol offered Chris Christie a campaign slogan.

"I talked to Chris Christie a couple weeks ago at a dinner and told him I thought he should think about running.

[imitating Christie] 'Oh, no, no. No chance.'

I told him a friend of mine had already come up with a slogan for his campaign: 'Big man for a big job.'

He liked that."

Noonan: "The Palin primary"

On Meet the Press today, Peggy Noonan said, yeah, there will be a Palin primary, but it won't involve her competing for votes, but other candidates competing for her endorsement.

"I'm one of those who thinks Palin will not run, and I happen to think if she runs, it will not work.

Her people love her, support her, watch her on TV, read her books, love to cheer her, they especially love to defend her when people like us criticize her.

They will not vote -- I'm telling her they will not vote for her -- they won't vote for her for President.

What I think she'll do is sit back -- she's a realist, she'll learn she's not going to win, this isn't going to work -- and so she will sacrifice herself and support somebody else, so there'll be a Palin primary."

One comment: every time a member of the "conservative elite" says Palin won't run because she knows she can't win, she becomes that much more likely to run.

The ethanol spectre

On Fox News today, former Bush White House Press Secretary, Dana Perino, said that ethanol -- always an issue for prez candidates in Iowa -- might actually be a bigger one this year.

"What happens when these guys go to Iowa?

In this new world that we have, against subsidies and with reduced spending, who's going to be against an ethanol subsidy in Iowa?

.... all of them will be considered hypocrites if they support it".

It'll be especially interesting to see how Rick Santorum approaches it.

He's been to Iowa eight times in the past fourteen months, trying to woo voters, but last year, acknowledged an ideological incompatibility.

"You'll probably find that the folks in Iowa won't like my voting record on ethanol.

I was on the ag committee for years and was a great defender of Pennsylvania agriculture - which does not necessarily fit well with Iowa agriculture.

Will he bend?

Trump fights for domain names

If Donald Trump were seriously entertaining presidential ambitions (as he's continually claimed the past few months), these probably aren't the domain names he'd be scuffling over with the WIPO Arbitration and Mediation Center.

trumpinternationalscotland.com,

trumpscotland.com.

and

trumpuk.com.

Daniels focuses on the debt

In a talk with reporters at the Indiana statehouse last week, Mitch Daniels made it clear that his presidential bid would focus on tackling the national debt -- a good issue for him, since he's shown a willingness to offer bolder fix-its than his potential rivals.

The AP reports.

"We don't know who the field is," Daniels told reporters at his Statehouse office last week.

"We don't know exactly what they'll emphasize and what their depth of conviction and specificity of prescription will be about the problems that are bothering me, specifically the debt iceberg the nation's heading for."

Daniels said it could influence his decision if "somebody really grabs hold and is willing to deal openly and honestly with the American people about what we're up against" — and offers a constructive way to get out. But Daniels said it's too soon to tell whether anybody fits that description.

Some of Daniels more unorthodox suggestions have been floats of coupling a VAT tax with a flat tax, as well as cutting defense spending.

That doesn't mean he's a fiscal liberal.

He's worked to cap property taxes in Indiana, suggested raising the retirement age for Social Security, and earned the praise of conservative Ross Douthat, who has called him "America's best governor."

In a just world, Daniels’s record would make him the Tea Party movement’s favorite politician.

During the fat years of the mid-2000s, while most governors went on spending sprees, he was trimming Indiana’s payroll, slowing the state government’s growth, and turning a $800 million deficit into a consistent surplus.

But Daniels doesn't raise his voice and therein may lie his problem in these tea party times.

After CPAC 2010 was in the books, he said:

"[There was] a lot of rowdyism and barbs cast at the other side. I think that's appropriate at a certain time. But that's not my lane right now."

[Hat tip: Blog Briefing Room]

Perry: "A definite no, brother"

Bridget Johnson on Rick Perry's chat on Fox yesterday about a presidential bid.

When pressed on whether his crusade against federal government interference and big spending would translate into a 2012 run for the White House, Perry said he hoped someone would run who would stand up and "try to make Washington as inconsequential" as possible.

"Not for me," Perry said. "I happen to think that the governors are where the action is."

When pressed on whether that was a "definite maybe," Perry shot back, "As a definite no, brother."

Meanwhile, the Dallas Morning News' op-ed board named Perry "Texan of the Year" today, calling his political instincts "nearly infallible."

After 26 years in public office, Perry still is undefeated. And now, after winning an unprecedented third full term at the helm of state government, he has made history.

While his record as governor remains open for discussion, Perry's political instincts have been nearly infallible.

With cowboy swagger and bold declarations, he has carved his own path, ducking debates and flirting with secession.

Foes and fans of our polarizing governor both acknowledge Perry's impact on Texas politics. In a weak-governor state, he has seized a bullhorn, making himself heard across Texas and beyond.

For those reasons, Perry is the 2010 Dallas Morning News Texan of the Year.

Buying Bristol's house

The New York Times has a little more on how the five-bedroom house in Maricopa, Arizona became Bristol Palin's.

Edward Farrell, Maricopa’s vice mayor and a fourth-generation resident, gave Todd Palin, Ms. Palin’s father, a tour of Maricopa earlier in the year and was under the impression that he was looking for a house for the entire family.

“I left the meeting thinking that maybe he and Sarah were looking for a place to live,” said Mr. Farrell, who was surprised when he learned that Ms. Palin was listed as the buyer.

[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]

FOX panel talks Daniels

Last night, The Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes and WaPo's Charles Krauthammer both singled out Mitch Daniels as a strong prospect for the 2012 nomination.

Hayes:

"The person I think is the most interesting to watch -- in terms of the political context right now -- is Mitch Daniels, and the reason he's so important is because he's serious about cutting spending and he's serious about reforming entitlements.

These are the things that animated the tea party, leading up to the 2010 elections. They've given life and vibrancy to the Republican party that we haven't seen.... he's disarmed many a television anchor or talk show host with responses to questions that politicians normally don't answer.

When he's asked about how to reform entitlements, he doesn't say 'Well, you know, we really need someone in the White House who's going to lead on this' and do this sort of politician answer, he says 'We need to think about raising the retirement age', and he gets specific, and the question is whether the electorate, particularly the Republican primary electorate, is ready for someone like that."

Krauthammer:

"I think -- out of the field -- I would agree with Steve. Mitch Daniels, who's not new but would be new on a national scene.... would have that kind of newness.

I think what he really has, I believe, is the absence of charisma, and I think against Obama, the country bet on charisma with Obama, is not that happy with him.

You'd want to have a nuts and bolts, a serious, a guy who's done stuff. I think he would be the compromise."

The compare/contrast argument seems more suited to war games, which aren't great predictors of political events.

I still think Mike Pence is the Hoosier to watch and that Daniels will have trouble generating the enthusiasm a darkhorse needs to catch fire.

Vid via Newsbusters.

Merry Christmas!

"Christ by highest heaven adored, Christ the everlasting Lord."

Thune to headline big fundraising dinner in Minnesota

The AP reports that John Thune will deliver keynote remarks at the Minnesota state GOP's annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner in February.

State GOP deputy chairman Michael Brodkorb said the invitation was extended to Thune because he's seen as "a leader in our party."

Brodkorb said the mention of Thune in a 2012 context only increases interest in his speech.

Last year, Haley Barbour headlined the event.

Bristol Palin buys home in Arizona

KOLD-TV in Arizona reports that Bristol Palin has bought a five bedroom, 4,000 square foot house in Maricopa.

According to public records, the house was originally built in 2006 and purchased for $329,560 at the time. It had been in foreclosure earlier this year and Bristol purchased it for $172,000.

.... According to The Arizona Republic, the newspaper tried to contact Bristol Palin to see if she plans on becoming a permanent Arizona resident or just an occasional resident. The newspaper was not able to contact her.

Daniels sends letter backing Holcomb

The AP:

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has endorsed top adviser Eric Holcomb to become the new state Republican Party chairman.

State GOP spokesman Trevor Foughty tells The Associated Press that Daniels sent a letter to party leaders backing Holcomb.

.... Daniels says in the letter that Holcomb is "a coalition builder who can raise money, devise strategy, communicate a positive vision and win elections."

I posted Jonathan Martin's take on Holcomb's bid yesterday, but since 24 hours hasn't changed the dynamic -- which is fuzzy for all but the closest watchers -- here it is again.

For those who think Daniels is increasingly leaning toward a run, the argument goes that Holcomb will now be freed from his government job and can do politics full time. Yes, he'll ostensibly be running the state party. But in an off-year, he can spend much of his time overseeing Daniels's exploratory efforts.

Hoosiers who are more bearish on the prospect of a Daniels bid say that the move shows the degree to which the governor is not building out a presidential infrastructure. Leading the state party, Holcomb will be committed to helping local candidates and preparing not for a White House run but, rather, the race to succeed Daniels in 2012.

Pawlenty: I don't joke as much anymore

From T.W. Budig's great look at Tim Pawlenty's eight years as governor of Minnesota.

As a lawmaker, Pawlenty was known for his wise cracks. But the playfulness went away over his time as governor.

“I think I’m still that same person,” Pawlenty said of enjoying a laugh.

“(But) everybody is looking for that one phrase that can get on a blog to drive readership,” he said the cutthroat media market.

“It gets lifted,” he said of a joke.

“It comes across as mean spirited,” said Pawlenty.

“I miss those days, because I’d rather continue like that,” he said.

The great, late Victor Borge once said, "Laughter is the closest distance between two people."

Santorum: DADT repeal about secularization of America

On Fox News last night, Rick Santorum said the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" was about more than, well, the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

“Look, 'Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell' was not about men and women serving in the military.

Men and women who are gays and lesbians can serve in the military right now. That’s not the issue.

The issue is a bigger issue. The issue is – and it’s not even about gay marriage -- this is about a larger issue of the secularization of our society.

It’s a larger issue about the Left just, you know, trying to, you know, put government in control of this country, trying to move faith, trying to move any people of faith and religion out of the public square, out of America, trying to transform what America’s all about.

And this is just one more step in the process, and we have Republicans who may be well-meaning, may feel bad for people, who have obviously served honorably who are gays and lesbians, but what they’re doing is a larger harm, and this is just one more step in that process.”

Bill Kristol has a column out today, claiming opponents of the repeal are a bit too zealous.

President Obama said last week, speaking “to all Americans”: “Your country needs you, your country wants you, and we will be honored to welcome you into the ranks of the finest military the world has ever known.”

Our fine servicemen and women won’t quit, they won’t whine, they won’t fret, and they won’t cause a scene. Conservatives owe it to them to conduct ourselves with the same composure and dignity.

Rove: Hillary might run in 2016

Karl Rove talked about a Hillary Clinton 2016 bid on Fox News last night.

"I suspect she will be a candidate. I suspect she is going to think about being a candidate in 2016, and we'll know by about 2014.

If she leaves the [Obama] Administration in 2014 or 2015, in order to give herself a chance to write a book about her experiences and reconnect with the grassroots, then she might entertain it.

She'll be younger in 2016 than John McCain was when he ran, and she will -- I suspect -- be a big presence on the Democratic scene."

Some '12 prospects shunning big Hispanic forum

Carrie Budoff Brown reports that Mitt Romney, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Perry have all declined invitations to speak at the first Hispanic Leadership Network conference next month in Miami.

Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is "amenable" to attending, while Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Haley Barbour are all no-commenting their plans.

Tim Pawlenty is the lone '12 prospect who's committed to showing up and speaking (unless you count Jeb Bush, who's one of the top draws for the event).

Pawlenty: Third term chatter was "tongue-in-cheek"

On Minnesota Public Radio's Morning Edition, Tim Pawlenty says he was talking "a little tongue-in-cheek" when he said last week that he regretted not running for a third gubernatorial term.

MPR: I was a little surprised to hear that you expressed some regret about not seeking a third term, knowing what you know now -- that there would be a Republican-controlled Legislature.

Why? What would you like to have done with a Republican-controlled Legislature.

PAWLENTY: Well, you know, I said that a little tongue-in-cheek the other day up in Duluth, and it was based on a hypothetical of me saying that if I had known then what I know now -- which was a complete sweep by the Republicans of both the House and the Senate in the Minnesota Legislature for the first time since party designation in the legislature -- would I have liked to stay as governor with that scenario, and, yeah, I would have loved to have done that.

But I made my decision some many months ago, almost two years ago, and I'm very comfortable with my decision, so I don't regret it in that regard. I just thought after having been here and fought really hard with a mostly-Democratic legislature for most of the years that I was here, it would've been nice to have a Legislature that was more forward-minded.

Via MPR. About 6:30 in.

Mitch Daniels: Late start could hurt me

Fascinating exchange between WISH-TV's Jim Shella and Mitch Daniels, where the Indiana gov. concedes that his pledge to stay out of prepping/deciding on a prez bid until at least April could hurt him.

SHELLA: [There's] been a lot of reporting by national media this year about folks who are interested in having you run for President.

You have said over and over again that you won't say anything about that until after the legislative session in 2011. I understand that.

My question today is: By not deciding, are you, in fact, deciding?

DANIELS: Maybe. It's a great question.

You mean, 'shouldn't you be getting started, and heading to Iowa, and doing whatever it is people do?'

SHELLA: Exactly.

DANIELS: Yeah, maybe. If so, so. My duty is here. My heart is here. I'm incredibly excited about the chance for us to do more really good things for Indiana in the next four months, and that's coming first.

So if it's too late then, it's too late.

Comes about 2:15 in.

Gary Johnson plans 5th visit to New Hampshire

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson announced today that he'll be visiting New Hampshire, January 3-8, for a fifth time.

From his statement:

Governor Johnson will be in the state from January 3rd through January 8th, visiting the following areas: Portsmouth, Seacoast, Concord, Tilton, Keene, Lebanon, Manchester, Golden Triangle and Nashua, and will be available for interviews throughout the week.

Governor Johnson will also be meeting with various political and liberty organizations in New England, where he will continue to focus on key issues such as: lowering taxes, cutting deficits, creating jobs, the implications of immigration reform, the failure of the war on drugs, and other pertinent public policy issues.

Evening eats

a. Is Rudy Giuliani a 2012 darkhorse?

b. Jennifer Rubin ain't buying Haley Barbour's written statement.

c. Barbour is hurt, and more, but maybe not irreparably.

c. Jonah Goldberg breaks down the 2012 field.

d. Notoriously frugal Mark Sanford gives $250K (in unspent campaign cash) away.

e. John Sununu says it's not slower than usual.

f. Romney and Obama holiday in Hawaii.

g. A couple signs that Palin might not be running.

h. Amen to the Weekly Standard: "Jimmy Stewart should not be forgotten."

Oprah Winfrey on Sarah Palin

Parade Magazine interviews the queen of everything TV.

On Sarah Palin:

"I don't know her so I can't speak to [whether or not she'll be a candidate]. But I would say that America's going to fall in love with her from [her reality series, Sarah Palin's Alaska]. When I saw that first episode, I went, 'Whoa! She is charming and very likable.'"

Asked whether the thought of Palin's running for office scares her, Oprah said:

"It does not scare me because I believe in the intelligence of the American public."

[Hat tip: Mediaite]

Pawlenty slams charges of neglect: "It's a bunch of crap"

Tim Pawlenty responds to allegations -- leveled largely by state Minnesota state Democrats -- that his mind has been elsewhere (i.e. the other 49 states) during his final few months in office.

“It’s a bunch of crap,” he said about what he sees as Democratic-Farmer-Laborite attempts to paint him as a disinterested governor.

.... The governor blamed Democrats and “Rockefeller Republicans” who went along with DFL spending plans for raising the state budget an average of 21 percent every four years before he arrived in the governor’s office in 2003.

“I am the first true fiscally conservative governor in the history of the state of Minnesota,” Pawlenty declared in the 45-minute interview.

(ea) It's nice to hear T-Paw getting nostalgic and using the more genteel and gentle "Rockefeller Republican" in place of the boorish RINO.

Is Romney the new McCain?

Philip Klein makes the case, based on a group of PPP polls showing Romney with weak favorability ratings among conservatives in eight polled states.

The problem is that even though conservatives -- for good reason -- are skeptical about Romney, to beat him, they'll have to rally around another candidate.

Otherwise, the conservatives will just split their vote up in a crowded field and Romney will be the last man standing, just like John McCain in 2008.

In 2008, Romney was the late beneficiary (as it turned out, too late) of the Anyone but McCain movement, so he's probably entering '12 in better standing with conservatives than McCain, but as these PPP polls show, he isn't exactly strong with them, and the very fact he was the late beneficiary in '08 means that conservatives early on weren't too jazzed about him.

Huck edges Obama in North Carolina

Public Policy Polling shows North Carolina could once again be baby-UNC blue, once the 2012 results are in.

Only Mike Huckabee bests Obama in a general election matchup, despite Obama's -3% job approval rating in the state.

a. Mike Huckabee 46% Barack Obama 45%

b. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43%

c. Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 42%

d. Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38%

Fav Ratings:

a. Mike Huckabee 43%/34% for +9%.

b. Mitt Romney 34%/39% for -5%.

c. Newt Gingrich 35%/47% for -12%.

d. Sarah Palin 36%/57% for -21%.

Notes: If you compare Palin's numbers against Obama with their matchup in Florida, you'll find an identical 52%/38% POTUS lead. You'll also find an identical -21% fav rating for the former AK governor.

Pollster Tom Jensen told me that the numbers are, indeed, correct and that it's just a coincidence that the two line up so perfectly.

For Obama, it's an across-the-board increase against his GOP foes from one month ago -- an increase explained thusly by Jensen:

One thing that may be contributing to Obama's improved standing in the state is the tax deal he cut with Republicans in Congress earlier this month. It's broadly popular with North Carolina voters- 51% support it to only 35% who are opposed. What may be more important for Obama though is who supports it. His party's liberal base is not real happy with it, but not so displeased that they're turning away from Obama.

Meanwhile it's popular with the conservative Democrats who can go either way in Presidential elections and it also seems to have given a boost to Obama with independents who tend to want to see their elected officials work across party lines.

Is Huck negotiating a new Fox contract?

Earlier today, Jonah Goldberg said that there was "growing buzz" that Mike Huckabee had a fat new contract with Fox in the works, with obviously huge implications for a 2012 race (i.e. he wouldn't be in one).

But HuckPAC's executive director, Hogan Gidley, emails Ben Smith to tell him that the buzz is unfounded.

“Mr. Goldberg should let Governor Huckabee in on that, since the Governor is not aware of any current ‘negotiations'."

Obama benefits from 3-way races

Clarus Research Group tests 3-way matchups (pdf), pitting Barack Obama (D) against Mitt Romney (R) and Michael Bloomberg (i).

FIRST MATCHUP:

Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 36% Michael Bloomberg 13%.

Note: Bloomberg gets 20% of indies; 11% of Repubs; 8% of Dems.

SECOND MATCHUP:

Barack Obama 42% Sarah Palin 31% Michael Bloomberg 18%.

Note: Bloomberg gets 24% of Repubs; 22% of indies; 10% of Dems.

Palin bleeds 13% more Repubs than Romney in a 3-way matchup.

Clarus: GOP front-runners bunched

A new Clarus poll (pdf) of a 2012 GOP primary, shows very little has changed in a very long time.

1. Mitt Romney 19%

2. Mike Huckabee 18%

3. Sarah Palin 17%

4. Newt Gingrich 10%

5. Chris Christie 9%

6. Marco Rubio 5%

7. Ron Paul and Bobby Jindal 4%

9. Tim Pawlenty 3%

10. Haley Barbour, John Thune, and Mitch Daniels 2%

Also interesting: what GOP voters want if they could build-a-candidate.

a. Management experience as a gov (65%) over legislative experience in Congress (15%).

b. Experience in private business (53%) over someone with experience in government (or as some would like to call it, "public service") 28%.

c. Intelligent and competent (49%) over someone known for clear and consistent philosophical principles (37%).

d. Moderate, pragmatic, conservative with a good chance at beating Obama (61%) over a staunch, out-spoken candidate who only has a fair chance of beating the POTUS (29%).

[Hat tip: The Hill's Michael O'Brien]

Daniels will stay out of gubernatorial primary

Indianapolis TV station, WXIN 59, reports that Mitch Daniels will stay clear of making any endorsements in Indiana's 2012 gubernatorial primary, even if Mike Pence -- whom he calls a "first-rate guy" -- runs.

In other Mitch news, Jonathan Martin had a good look yesterday at what the governor's deputy chief of staff, Eric Holcomb, might be signaling about his boss's plans by potentially assuming the helm of the state GOP.

For those who think Daniels is increasingly leaning toward a run, the argument goes that Holcomb will now be freed from his government job and can do politics full time. Yes, he'll ostensibly be running the state party. But in an off-year, he can spend much of his time overseeing Daniels's exploratory efforts.

Hoosiers who are more bearish on the prospect of a Daniels bid say that the move shows the degree to which the governor is not building out a presidential infrastructure. Leading the state party, Holcomb will be committed to helping local candidates and preparing not for a White House run but, rather, the race to succeed Daniels in 2012.

Huckabee takes Obama's side in food fight

Sarah Palin's war on the war against obesity has been one of the more curious fights the former AK governor has picked, considering obesity's crippling effect on the health care industry.

Earlier this year, Mike Huckabee invited Michelle Obama to his show to help promote her anti-childhood obesity campaign, and now -- with Palin's shots at Obama's campaign fresh in everyone's mouths -- Huckabee is again rallying to the FLOTUS' defense.

"With all due respect to my colleague and friend, Sarah Palin, I think she's misunderstood what Michelle Obama is trying to do.

Michelle Obama isn't trying to tell people what to eat or not trying to force the government's desires on people, but she's stating the obvious: that we do have an obesity crisis in this country and if you don't believe it, I always tell people:

'Walk into any 3rd grade class and look around and then go back and pick up your 3rd grade school class picture, if you're an adult.

Look at that picture and tell me what you see that looks starkly different than what you'll see in today's 3rd grade. It will shock you.'

25% of the people attempting to get into the military today can't do so because they are grossly obese.

We're not even going to have a fighting force if we continue at the rate we're going, and the health care costs are staggering with 80% of health care costs in this country going toward chronic disease -- a lot of which is caused by obesity.

So the First Lady's campaign is on-target, and it's not saying that you can't or shouldn't ever eat a dessert, but it's saying that if you start rewarding kids with sugary things and make them think that when they're good, they get sugar, and when they're bad, they have to eat vegetables, you do what happened to me -- and, I think, really a lot of people -- we condition ourselves to think that we're really only good when we're just sugaring up."

CNN gives background on Palin's war against Obama's anti-obesity campaign.

Huckabee's comments come in response to a remark from Palin on her TLC reality show Sunday during a scene in which the former Alaska governor is seen making s'mores - the not-so-healthy dessert of chocolate and marshmallows.

"[This] in honor of Michelle Obama, who said the other day we should not have dessert," Palin quipped as she served up the tasty treat.

But it's not the first time Palin has taken a jab at Mrs. Obama over her campaign to discourage fattening foods, especially from public schools. The former vice presidential nominee told conservative talk radio host Laura Ingraham last month that "the first lady cannot trust parents to make decisions for their own children, for their own families in what we should eat."

Palin also hand-delivered cookies to a Pennsylvania school last month before delivering a speech there, saying: "Who should be deciding what I eat? Should it be government or should it be parents? It should be the parents."

Vid via The Daily Caller.

Obama leads all GOP contenders in Florida

Public Policy Polling shows that -- despite his poor approval ratings (45%/49%) in the state -- Barack Obama would beat all Republican challengers in a 2012 contest.

a. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44%

b. Barack Obama 49% Mike Huckabee 44%

c. Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42%

d. Barack Obama 52% Sarah Palin 38%

e. Barack Obama 48% Marco Rubio 40%

Fav Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney 43%/38% for +5%.

b. Marco Rubio 43%/42% for +1%.

c. Mike Huckabee 41%/43% for -2%.

d. Newt Gingrich 36%/47% for -11%.

e. Sarah Palin 36%/57% for -21%.

Notes: To continue beating a dead horse, Mike Huckabee is more popular with women than men, remarkable considering the gender gap in party affiliation. Huck has a +5% rating with women and -8% rating with men.

Meanwhile, Mama Grizzlies in Florida aren't exactly flocking to Sarah Palin, who scores a -29% with them, and loses to Obama among indies by 41%.

Mitt Romney is the only '12 prospect polled who scores positively with both men and women, although the fav numbers for all are a bit strange.

E.G. Huck, Gingrich, and Romney all score better with women than men, which doesn't fit the standard gender gap.

Meanwhile, in head-to-head matchups, you see some of the problems the GOP12 field has: Obama leads all Republican contenders with men.

If a Republican is to win Florida (and that's a must-win state), the first order of business is jumping out to a lead among men; then working into cutting Obama's advantage with women.