Friday, January 21, 2011

PPP: Huckabee leads field by 10%

Public Policy Polling's new survey has Mike Huckabee sporting the largest lead of any candidate in the '12 sweepstakes since the group began polling.

1. Mike Huckabee 24%

2. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin 14%

4. Newt Gingrich 11%

5. Tim Pawlenty 8%

6. Ron Paul 7%

7. Mitch Danieles 4%

8. John Thune 1%

SECOND Choices:

1. Mike Huckabee 14%

2. Sarah Palin 12%

3. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich 11%

5. Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul 7%

7. Mitch Daniels 4%

8. John Thune 1%

Favorability Ratings:

a. Mike Huckabee 64%/16% for +48%.

b. Sarah Palin 65%/26% for +39%.

c. Newt Gingrich 58%/24% for +34%.

d. Mitt Romney 52%/28% for +24%.

Notes: Yet another sign of Huck's strength in what has been a week of Huck news.

Speaking of last week's king of headlines, Tim Pawlenty does pretty well in this PPP poll, and 8% is his high watermark for a national poll.

The one with the most glaring problem in the poll is Mitt Romney, who seems unable to pick up more traction with conservatives.

As pollster Tom Jensen notes:

.... conservative voters just don't like him nearly as much as they do the rest of the leading Republican contenders. Only 55% have a favorable opinion of him. Gingrich is 10 points better at 65% favorability, and Palin and Huckabee are each almost 20 points higher at 74% and 73% respectively.

Our state by state polling has indicated that the Republican electorate in most places is going to be more conservative leaning than it was in 2008 so this is somewhere Romney's really going to have to step it up if he's going to be viable for the nomination.