A new Public Policy Polling survey making waves shows Donald Trump surging to the top spot in a hypothetical 2012 primary.
1. Donald Trump 26%
2. Mike Huckabee 17%
3. Mitt Romney 15%
4. Newt Gingrich 11%
5. Sarah Palin 8%
6. Ron Paul 5%
7. Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty 4%
Race WITHOUT Huckabee, Palin, or Trump:
1. Mitt Romney 25%
2. Newt Gingrich 23%
3. Ron Paul 13%
4. Tim Pawlenty 10%
5. Michele Bachmann 8%
6. Haley Barbour 4%
Race WITHOUT Trump or Palin:
1. Mike Huckabee 24%
2. Mitt Romney 19%
3. Newt Gingrich 18%
4. Ron Paul 10%
5. Michele Bachmann 7%
6. Tim Pawlenty 6%
7. Haley Barbour sighting 2%
Race WITHOUT Huck or Trump:
1. Mitt Romney 22%
2. Newt Gingrich 20%
3. Sarah Palin 15%
4. Ron Paul 12%
5. Tim Pawlenty 6%
6. Michele Bachmann 5%
7. Haley Barbour 3%
Race WITHOUT Trump:
1. Mike Huckabee 22%
2. Mitt Romney 16%
3. Newt Gingrich 15%
4. Ron Paul 8%
5. Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty 6%
7. Haley Barbour 3%
Favorable Ratings:
a. Mike Huckabee 61%/18% for +43%.
b. Sarah Palin 61%/31% for +30%.
c. Mitt Romney 50%/29% for +21%.
d. Newt Gingrich 50%/33% for +17%.
Notes: The most likely field is one without Trump, Huckabee, or Palin.
In that situation, it becomes Romney vs. Gingrich at 25%-23%, respectively. That being said, I don't think there are too many who think it will be a Romney vs. Gingrich contest, in the end.
Look at Newt's favorable ratings. They're the weakest of the group's, and a full 33% don't like him. He doesn't have much room to grow, and grow he must if he's going to be the sole alternative to Romney.
As for Trump?
The National Review's Rich Lowry has a good take on his continuing appeal:
Trump reflects the id of a certain segment of populist opinion.
Republicans have unfounded doubts about Barack Obama’s birthplace. Trump absurdly promises to become a personal Scotland Yard for the birthers, sending a team to hunt down the real birth certificate in Hawaii. People think we’re losing too many jobs to China. Trump all but pledges a trade war. People worry about American decline. Trump says we’re getting laughed at around the world and it’ll end on his watch.
People doubt the war in Libya. Trump says he’d wage war there only to take the country’s oil. And he’d take Iraq’s oil, too. Obama is groping for a doctrine in the Middle East. Trump already has one: Steal its oil. In Trump, Noam Chomsky will finally have met a Western imperialist truly bent on expropriating the Third World’s wealth.
