Friday, April 22, 2011

Trump, Huckabee lead GOP primary

A new Gallup survey shows Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee leading a close 2012 GOP primary.

1. Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump 16%

3. Mitt Romney 13%

4. Sarah Palin 10%

5. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 6%

7. Michele Bachmann 4%

8. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels 3%

10. Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum 2%

12. Jon Huntsman 1%

Race WITHOUT Trump:

1. Mike Huckabee 19%

2. Mitt Romney 16%

3. Sarah Palin 13%

4. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 7%

6. Michele Bachmann 5%

7. Mitch Daniels 4%

8. Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour 3%

10. Rick Santorum 2%

11. Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson 1%

Notes: A few comments.

1. Three of the top, four candidates -- Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee -- might not even run.

2. Tim Pawlenty's challenge is highlighted in both polls.

Each shows Michele Bachmann edging him. T-Paw was supposed to be Minnesota's representative in this race.

3. The poll results are highly correlated to name ID, and we all know how perilous that can be.

4. Rick Santorum is Trump-proof.

He gets 2% with or without Trump in the field. Personally, that's what I'm taking from this poll.