Thursday, June 23, 2011

Bachmann vaults to second in Florida

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Michele Bachmann tying Sarah Palin in a Florida 2012 primary.

1. Mitt Romney 27%

2. Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann 17%

4. Herman Cain 10%

5. Newt Gingrich 8%

6. Ron Paul 7%

7. Tim Pawlenty 4%

8. Jon Huntsman 2%

Favorable Ratings:

a. Sarah Palin 67%27% for +40%.

b. Paul Ryan 49%/10% for +39%.

c. Rudy Giuliani 60%/22% for +38%.

d. Chris Christie 49%/12% for +37%.

e. Michele Bachmann 58%/22% for +36%.

f. Herman Cain 48%/19% for +29%.

g. Mitt Romney 56%/30% for +26%.

h. Rick Perry 38%/12% for +26%.

One interesting number is the Hispanic vote, which is more pronounced in a Florida GOP primary than in many other states.

Bachmann is the winner with 27%.

Another key number is the 65+ crowd. Romney does unusually well there, leading by 13%. The younger you get, the more Floridians prefer Bachmann. She beats Romney by a solid 7% among 30-45 year olds.

Overall, Bachmann has jumped 10% since March, while Gingrich has fallen 10%.

Still, pollster Tom Jensen notes:

Romney now has the outright lead in PPP's most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he's up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.