Romney leads Obama in New Hampshire

A new WMUR poll shows Mitt Romney winning both the New Hampshire GOP primary and the state's general election.

Primary:

1. Mitt Romney 35%

2. Michele Bachmann 12%

3. Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani 7%

5. Rick Perry 4%

6. Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty 3%

8. Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain 2%

10. Newt Gingrich 1%

General election:

Mitt Romney 47% Barack Obama 43%

Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 38%

Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 41%

Favorable Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney +44%.

b. Michele Bachmann +23%.

c. Tim Pawlenty +19%.

d. Rick Perry +19%.

e. Herman Cain +19%.

f. Rick Santorum +12%.

g. Jon Huntsman -4%.

h. Ron Paul -5%.

i. Sarah Palin -11%.

j. Newt Gingrich -37%.

Here are the poll's take-aways:

a. Romney Power. He's long dominated the New Hampshire primary, so that part of the poll is old news. What's more significant, though, is that he continues to lead Obama in the state, and has since February. That means this doesn't seem to be a lead that's especially fickle.

Further, he leads the POTUS by 10% among indies.

b. Palin and Newt swoon. Check out those favorability numbers on Palin and Gingrich. They're horrible, especially considering that it's likely Republican primary voters that don't like them to the tune of -11% and -37%, respectively.

c. Pawlenty struggles. Wasn't he supposed to be the alternative to Mitt in New Hampshire? Rick Perry is already out-polling him. Bachmann quadruples him.

Obviously, Bachmann and T-Paw tap into different parts of the electorate, but here's the key point -- Pawlenty has the 3rd highest favorable rating, but only manages a tie for a distant 6th place. People might like him, but feel kind of "meh" about voting for him. And I doubt Sarah Huckabee or her New Hampshire-equivalent can change this.

d. Bachmann moves up. She's now 2nd place, and PPP teased a poll, to be released later today, also showing her jumping to 2nd place.

e. Caveat. Sure, early polls can change dramatically, but they're important to show the arc of a race and, also, important to donors and others involved in the invisible primary portion.