Thursday, August 11, 2011

CNN: Giuliani beats Obama

A new CNN poll has Rudy Giuliani leading Barack Obama -- the only 2012 candidate to do so.

General Election Matchups:

a. Rudy Giuliani 51% Barack Obama 45%

b. Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 45%

c. Barack Obama 55% Sarah Palin 41%

d. Barack Obama 51% Rick Perry 46%

e. Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 48%

Key take-aways:

a. Rudy, Rudy, Rudy. I don't know what it is with Giuliani and CNN polls.

A May primary poll had him leading the pack. And a poll last month showed him tied with Palin and just 3% behind Romney. I know his name ID is high, but so is Sarah Palin, and she trails the president by 14%.

b. Racial Divide. Every single one of the '12 candidates matched against Obama (even Palin) do better than the POTUS among whites.

Obama wins every matchup among non-Whites, big-time.

c. Education gap. You know how Republicans need to win back college graduates? Doesn't look like it'd happen with Palin. College graduates give Obama a +19% edge against her. They only give him a +2% lead against Romney.

GOP Primary:

1. Mitt Romney 17%

2. Rick Perry 15%

3. Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul 12%

6. Michele Bachmann 7%

7. Newt Gingrich 5%

8. Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman 4%

10. Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum 2%

Some take-aways:

a. Bachmann fades. One month ago, she was at 12%. Now she's slipped to 7% against the same opponents.

Even if you take Palin out of the race, she only manages 9%; whereas last month she got 14%.

What's going on? I can't imagine that many people are listening to Pawlenty's daily attacks on her. What people might be hearing are those migraine stories and Newsweek cover brouhahas. But what's odd is that pretty much everyone agrees she got hit unfairly and the rub was that she'd gain from the stuff.

b. Huntsman moves. From 1% a month ago to 4% now. More likeable or just higher name ID?

c. Men LOVE Ron Paul. Some strangeness lurking in the internals. Ron Paul wins among male GOP primary voters with 17%, but he only gets 5% from women.

Romney, meanwhile, cruises with women.

d. College gap. Romney wins here, more than doubling Palin's support among those with a college degree. That means the uneducated.... never mind, but the poll says it.

But here's the big thing. Romney and Perry run even among those with a college degree, showing Perry can go toe-to-toe with Romney among the educated, even with his tea party, working class, populist roots.

e. Perry wins tea partiers. Rick Perry proves the tea party's most popular choice at 20%. Romney doesn't do too badly there, either. He's second at 15%. Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin both have 11%.