A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rick Perry still leading Mitt Romney, though by less than the double-digits he's racked up since entering the race.
1. Rick Perry 24%
2. Mitt Romney 18%
3. Sarah Palin 11%
4. Michele Bachmann 10%
5. Ron Paul 9%
6. Herman Cain 5%
7. Newt Gingrich 3%
8. Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Thad McCotter 1%
Notes:
a. Still Perry.
He's led in every national poll that I know of since announcing his run for president. The question is whether this smaller lead represents a cooling or is just an outlier.
b. Bachmann Drowned.
She had a two month period in the spotlight. That began with her performance in the second GOP debate and ended the day after her straw poll victory in Iowa. (That gets you thinking: what's your Michele Bachmann Moment in life? A brief period of unmitigated bliss and success, a Personal Pax Romana. For me, it was those first, few months after toilet training).
Now, Bachmann has slipped to fourth and only manages a tie with her natural and undeclared rival, Sarah Palin.
She's made a game effort, but the game seems to be slipping away.
c. Evangelicals like Perry.
He's not just wooing evangelical leaders; he's winning their followers, sporting a fat 15% lead over Romney. Considering his comfort with the group and Romney's Mormonism, that's a gap that will probably only grow.
Btw, Jon Huntsman gets a dash among evangelicals.
d. Romney and Palin's education gap.
This has been one of the more predictable, consistent phenomenons of the cycle: College graduates don't like Palin; but those without degrees do.
Only 4% of those with degrees choose Palin. Romney and Perry both do 21% better. Even Herman Cain does better among college graduates.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney does much better with college graduates than he does with those who don't have their degree (25% vs. 16%).
e. If Palin doesn't run...
Perry picks up 26% of her supporters, but Romney isn't too far behind at 20%. That's good news for Romney, since the CW would assume that Perry would clean up Palin's fans.
f. Stakes.
Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.
"Being the new kid on the block has benefitted Perry. But with prominence comes scrutiny and both his Republican competitors and the Democrats are doing their best to convince voters he's not Mr. Wonderful.
The next few months will be a race between Perry and his Republican and Democratic opponents to define him for the vast majority of the American people."
