Also from that new Quinnipiac poll -- Mitt Romney continues to run strongest against Barack Obama among registered voters.
a. Mitt Romney 45% Barack Obama 45%
b. Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 42%
c. Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 39%
d. Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 37%
Notes:
a. Republican gains.
Every Republican has gained on Obama since last month. Romney was down 6%, but is now tied; Palin was down 19% but now loses by 14%, and Bachmann has shaved 3% off Obama's lead.
But Perry gets the gold, narrowing a 13% deficit to just 3%.
b. Romney wins indies.
Both Obama and Romney consolidate equal amounts of party support, but Romney has a 6% lead among independents.
The POTUS leads the other '12 candidates among indies, although he's got just a 2% edge on Perry.
c. Gender gap?
It's practically non-existent in this poll. Obama leads Romney among women by just 3%, while men like Romney by 4%.
The ethnicity gap -- always huge -- seems even huger this time around. Romney only gets 2% of the black vote, but he leads Obama by 20% among whites.
d. Education gap.
Belying conventional wisdom, Romney beats Obama (+3%) among those without a college degree, while Obama beats him among college graduates (+7%).
I'd expect those numbers to move a bit. If Obama chooses to engage in class warfare (which seems certain if Romney is the nominee), then college graduates might shift toward Romney, while those without a degree move more towards Obama.
e. Born-again evangelicals.
Here's the weirdest stat of all. Mitt Romney outperforms Sarah Palin against Obama among evangelicals.
16% of "born again evangelicals" (which excludes Mormons, I'd assume) would back Obama in an Obama vs. Romney match.
Meanwhile, 21% would back the POTUS in a matchup with Palin.
f. Obama's perilous ground.
He only hits the all-important 50% mark once, and it's against Palin.
But against Perry and Romney, he only manages 45%, which is troubling for an incumbent. And keep in mind that this poll measures registered voters; not likely voters. Likely voters are generally more inclined to go for the Republican candidate.
Pollster Peter Brown on the POTUS:
"He needs to improve his standing among men, whites and independents to ensure his re- election."
