Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Cain strong in South Carolina, Florida

A new NBC/Marist poll shows Herman Cain beating Mitt Romney in crucial South Carolina by 4% and tying him in crucial, also, Florida.


1. Herman Cain 30%

2. Mitt Romney 26%

3. Rick Perry 9%

4. Newt Gingrich 6%

5. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul 5%


1. Herman Cain 32%

2. Mitt Romney 31%

3. Rick Perry 8%

4. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich 6%

Key take-aways:

a. Convention wisdom is right.

Herman Cain does much better with tea partiers, evangelicals, "very conservative" Republicans, and debate-watchers.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney does especially well among Republicans who don't identify with the tea party and those who call themselves moderate or liberal Republicans.

The big question is whether Romney is able to get enough of those out to vote. Cain's supporters tend to be much more enthusiastic and plugged into primaries.

Regardless, it's striking how dead-on the portrayals of Romney and Cain's respective bases are.

b. General election.

In South Carolina, Obama loses to Romney, Perry, and Cain. In Florida, he edges Romney by 2%, Cain by 6% and Perry by 8% -- that, despite a -8% approval rating.