Gingrich jumps to big leads in Iowa, South Carolina

Two, new polls have Newt Gingrich vaulting to big leads in the crucial states of Iowa and South Carolina.

Insider Advantage poll of Iowa (pdf).

1. Newt Gingrich 28%

2. Ron Paul 13%

3. Mitt Romney 12%

4. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain 10%

6. Rick Perry 7%

7. Rick Santorum 3%

If Romney's internal polling is finding anything like this, don't expect him to set foot in the state much more.

And theory would say things might just get worse for Mitt. Cain and his 10% seem to be falling and Bachmann's support could very easily drift. Gingrich would seem the likely new home for those drifters.

Insider Advantage poll of South Carolina:

1. Newt Gingrich 38%

2. Mitt Romney 15%

3. Herman Cain 13%

4. Ron Paul 7%

5. Rick Perry 4%

6. Michele Bachmann 3%

7. Rick Santorum 2%

These could be two big outliers, and even if they're not, remember Perry's huge lead in both states, at one point? After all, the RCP average only has Newt up by 8.2% in Iowa; RCP has Newt up by +8.6% in South Carolina.

But theory would also say that Newt's advantage would be more durable, because he's more well-known.

The counter to that is that Gingrich has quite a bit more baggage; therefore, his lead could be more like one of those generic kitchen bags you buy instead of the more reliable Hefty.