Thursday, December 8, 2011

Newt cuts into Barack's lead


A new set of Quinnipiac numbers in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania shows Mitt Romney still running stronger than Newt Gingrich against Obama, but by a smaller number than before.

Florida:

a. Mitt Romney 45% Barack Obama 42%

b. Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44%

Ohio:

a. Mitt Romney 43% Barack Obama 42%

b. Newt Gingrich 43% Barack Obama 42%

Pennsylvania:

a. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 43%

b. Barack Obama 48% Newt Gingrich 40%

Now -- here's a key showing just how winnable each of these states should be for Republicans. Obama's job approval in Florida, Ohio, and PA is -13%, -14%, and -9%, respectively.

Even though Gingrich has made gains in overall preference, this set of internals suggests Romney is still the stronger candidate to take on Obama right now.

Romney beats Obama on the economy in Florida, Ohio, and PA by 8%, 8%, and 6%.

Gingrich, meanwhile, beats Obama by 3% and 7% in Florida and Ohio, and loses by 1% in PA on the economy.

PRIMARY:

Florida:

1. Newt Gingrich 35%

2. Mitt Romney 22%

3. Ron Paul and Herman Cain 8%

5. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry 4%

7. Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman 2%

Ohio:

1. Newt Gingrich 36%

2. Mitt Romney 18%

3. Ron Paul and Herman Cain 7%

5. Michele Bachmann 5%

6. Rick Perry 4%

7. Rick Santorum 2%

8. Jon Huntsman 1%

Pennsylvania:

1. Newt Gingrich 31%

2. Mitt Romney 17%

3. Rick Santorum 9%

4. Ron Paul 7%

5. Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain 3%

In head-to-heads between Mitt and Newt, Gingrich leads by 18% in Florida, 27% in Ohio, and 19% in Pennsylvania.

Also, look at Bachmann -- for as much as she's struggled, she's tied or slightly ahead of Perry in each state. That tells you just how badly Perry is faring.