Thursday, December 29, 2011

Romney, Paul tied in RCP average

The new RCP average.

1. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul 21.3%

3. Newt Gingrich 14.3%

4. Rick Santorum 13.8%

5. Rick Perry 11.3%

6. Michele Bachmann 9.3%

7. Jon Huntsman 2.8%

One of the big questions is whether Bachmann can maintain that level of support, or if her share jumps ship to the social conservative who's leading -- Rick Santorum.

The main thing, though, that I'll watching -- Can Rick Perry beat Newt Gingrich?

If Perry nips Newt in Iowa, that means he becomes the most legitimate alternative to Romney with the South up for grabs.

That doesn't mean he'd be a close alternative to Mitt, but he'd have new life + a couple more debates to finally show up + the media's thirst for a longer primary.