Mitch Daniels cuts Planned Parenthood funding

USA Today on the first state in the nation to make the move.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said today he will sign a controversial bill that cuts off government funding to Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider.

.... "I supported this bill from the outset, and the recent addition of language guarding against the spending of tax dollars to support abortions creates no reason to alter my position," said Daniels, a Republican.

Some claimed this would be a defining moment in the controversy over his truce, but as I noted earlier today, there wasn't any reason why this would be incompatible with the truce, as defined by Daniels last year.

This legislation was sent to his desk. He didn't dream it up or sacrifice his agenda for it. And a truce never meant abandoning an ideological position. It just meant turning the tank's turret around a bit.

The real question is how much time he'll give social issues on the campaign trail.

Pawlenty, Romney make moves in Iowa

Jordan Fabian:

Tim Pawlenty on Friday beefed up his staff in the key early caucus state of Iowa, where he is looking to make a play to kick-start his campaign.

Iowa House Majority Whip Erik Helland (R) will lead the former Minnesota governor's team.

He will be assisted by Annie Kelly, a veteran of Pawlenty's political action committee who signed on as state deputy director, and Tracie Gibler, who will serve as state political director.

Helland worked on McCain's 2008 campaign in the Hawkeye state.

While we're talking Iowa and staff, some big news from Jonathan Martin, who reports that Mitt Romney has hired Sara Craig to direct his state campaign.

The hiring of a day-to-day manager in Iowa offers the best evidence yet that, while he wants to lower expectations in Iowa, Romney still intends to mount a full campaign there.

.... The hiring of Craig enables Romney to ramp up enough to begin doing the sort of organizing necessary to have an infrastructure in place for the caucuses. But it also reflects a campaign determined to stay leaner this time around.

Evening eats

a. Mitt Romney won't be writing off Iowa.

b. Michele Bachmann leads the dark horses.

c. John Bolton is still thinking about being one of those darkhorses.

d. Dick Morris takes issue with Charles Krauthammer's picks.

e. New Hampshire Dems file complaint against Romney.

f. Palin, on whether she'd raise the debt ceiling: "Hells no."

g. Fairytale. Only thing missing is Mark Shields narrating it.

Dick Armey wants Daniels

Dick Armey, in an interview with Newsmax.

"I was very sorry to see Haley Barbour bow out, but maybe this gives us a chance to get Mitch Daniels in the race.

I think Mitch Daniels would be the perfect pick for us. He's exactly the man with the proven record that we're looking for. He has no need for sensation, but he knows how to focus on work to get it done."

Last month, Armey hinted very strongly he was leaning Daniels' way, after meeting with him.

He said he encouraged him to “think about the service he could do for this nation as president.”

Asked if Daniels would have the backing of tea party supporters, Armey said: “Oh, I think he would have, absolutely. Tea party activists are very practical minded people who are looking for results.”

And if you track Dick Armey like the rest of the world tracks Kate Middleton (I don't -- I'm somewhere in between), you'll know that until one month ago, he seemed to be on the T-Paw train. I'm not too sure why he hopped off.

[Hat tip: Mike O'Brien]

Huckabee continues huddling about run

That uptick in stories about Mike Huckabee leaning toward a run continues.

Alice Stewart, Huckabee’s 2008 national press secretary, told The Daily Caller that the former governor has been meeting with donors and experts to strategize a road to victory.

“He has not made a final decision yet as to what he is going to do but I do know he has been talking with people – a lot of folks who have encouraged him to run,” Stewart said.

“He has met with a lot of political folks who have told him what it could take for him to win. And he talked to some major donors to make sure that he could raise the funds necessary to compete this year.”

Polling permutations

The 2012 field isn't set, and thus, there've been a lot of races with different presidential candidates that pollsters have measured.

But Rasmussen devotes time to study one of the most unlikely scenarios -- A race with Chris Christie and not Mike Hucakbee, Sarah Palin, and Donald Trump.

In Friday's interest, here it is:

1. Mitt Romney 27%

2. Chris Christie 26%

3. Tim Pawlenty 8%

4. Mitch Daniels 4%

5. Rick Perry 3%

6. Jon Huntsman 2%

Interestingly, those making $60K+/year favor Christie, while those below that income threshold favor Romney.

The other, notable thing about the poll -- Christie more than triples Tim Pawlenty's showing.

Just name ID? Well, there's a reason why some candidates have higher name ID than others.

T-Paw has had eight years in a blue state, fighting liberals, and has also been one of the frankest about his presidential intentions. But he's just not registering.

Christie, on the other hand, doesn't have nearly as much political experience as T-Paw, but does have 2.5 million youtube views on his channel alone (note -- the number is far higher, if you include vids of him that aren't uploaded on his official channel).

T-Paw has 635K.

Low name ID might explain T-Paw's polling struggles, but what explains the low name ID?

Tony Perkins warns Daniels

Family Research Council president, Tony Perkins, on pro-life legislation sitting on Mitch Daniels' desk.

“I can’t imagine he would have national possibilities of running for president if he vetoes a piece of legislation like this.”

I think he'll sign it, although I'm surprised he's taken so long to think about it.

Last year, he said legislation like this was compatible with his truce on social issues -- as long as it didn't distract from his top priorities.

"As long as it doesn't get in the way of the really crucial (objectives) -- keeping Indiana in the black, improving our economy and bringing big reform to things like education. As long as it doesn't get in the way of that, there's plenty of time and capacity [for crafting socially-conservative legislation]," Daniels said.

By that criteria, the only way he could spin vetoing the legislation is by claiming it interfered with the rest of his agenda by creating a politically-toxic environment.

But it's doubtful that too many would buy that.

UPDATE: Shane D'Aprile has a great report on it, too.

Beasley: Things "fall into place" for Huckabee run

Former South Carolina Governor and 2008 Mike Huckabee-backer, David Beasley, talks to the Huffington Post about a Huck bid.

"It looks like things continue to fall in place.

.... I don’t think there’s any doubt that [Barbour's] supporters in the south and nationwide would be predisposed. Their first thoughts would be toward Huckabee ... because of his southern conservative credentials."

Rand Paul rips "horrific" RomneyCare

KY Sen. Rand Paul delivered another stinging rebuke of a potential 2012 candidate yesterday.

"Romneycare,'" Paul said, "was such a bad model for 'Obamacare.' Once you allow that the state is going to mandate and decide what insurance has to sell, it really is such an anathema to capitalism and to freedom and individual liberty, that I don't know how a good solid Republican conservative could sign a piece of legislation like that."

Paul said it will be an albatross for Romney during the nomination campaign "if I have anything to say about it."

Romney, Paul said, "has to explain why he supported that, and it's not a passing issue, it's one-sixth of our economy. He could say the Democrats made it worse, but he signed the bill.

"It's a horrific piece of legislation that presaged what we got from 'Obamacare,'" Paul said.

He also questioned Trump's ideological credentials this week, by demanding he release the "original, long-form certificate" of his Republican registration.

And last month, he hit Newt at the Congressional Correspondent's Dinner.

"I was happy to see that Newt Gingrich has staked out a position on the war. A position... or two... or maybe three.

I don't know. He may have more war positions than he's had wives."

The Ron Paul/Rand Paul father-son tag team is working ably, so far.

But...

Trend? Romney still leading Obama in New Hampshire

Two polls in two weeks have now shown Mitt Romney holding a solid lead over Barack Obama in New Hampshire.

Last week, he was up 8% in a Dartmouth College Survey, and today, a WMUR/Granite State poll (pdf) has him leading by 7%.

a. Mitt Romney 50% Barack Obama 43%

b. Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 42%

c. Barack Obama 45% Tim Pawlenty 38%

Notes: Obama continues to struggle on core numbers.

His favorable rating is just 44%/48%. That's significant, because throughout his presidency his fav rating is usually strong, even while his approval ratings have fallen.

Meanwhile, his approval rating is 44%/52%.

Only 32% of indies like the job he's doing, and only 4% of Republicans.

Likely culprit? As everywhere, the economy. By -17%, voters disapprove of his job handling the economy.

[Hat tip: Mike O'Brien]

Trump's M.O.

Donald Trump, talking about his beef with China in a speech last night.

"I'm not looking to have enemies with China. You know, I actually get along.

I'm a lover; not a fighter, okay? You've been reading about that for years."

Comes about 5:38 in during the NSFW speech.

Vid via TPM.

Romney, Huckabee lead in new poll

A Fox News poll shows that Republican voters might like what would certainly be one of the most acrimonious two-man races for the GOP nomination in years.

1. Mitt Romney 19%

2. Mike Huckabee 17%

3. Sarah Palin 9%

4. Donald Trump 8%

5. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 7%

7. Herman Cain 4%

8. Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum 3%

11. Mitch Daniels 2%

As for the acrimony, you can check out the Mike Huckabee vs. Mitt Romney GOP12 archive, which is loaded with Huck attacks on RomneyCare.

It also includes the fun factoid that Huck questioned whether Romney had a soul during the 2008 campaign.

And then there's Huck's "Gentile of the Year" award for the "non-Mormon with the biggest impact on Mormonism, positive or negative."

"His aw-shucks anti-Mormonism torpedoed Mitt’s chances for the Republican nomination, thus ensuring that Americans were once again reminded that Mormons are too weird for the highest office in the land."

Huckabee himself explained the feud, thusly, in a November 2009 speech.

"No matter how hard he [Romney] tried, people ultimately weren't buying the product, and I'm sure that part of it wasn't something he enjoyed reading about [in Huckabee's book Do The Right Thing], considering how much money they spent and what they got from it.

But let me add one thing. Because I think a lot of people think this is a personal thing with Mitt Romney. We're not close, and I'm probably not on his Christmas card list or anything, but the reality is my problem with Mitt Romney was Mitt Romney just needed to be Mitt Romney. If he'd have been who he was, rather than trying to out-be who everybody else was, I think he could have possibly got the nomination.

.... But for example, if the issue was immigration, he wanted to go further than Tom Tamcredo. If it was pro-life, then he was going to out-be me. If it was security, he was going to show that Rudy Giuliani wasn't nearly as strong on that as he was, and if it was military, he was going to be stronger than John McCain. And the point is: no one believed that."

Trump drops three F-bombs in speech

Nevada TV station, KTNV, on Donald Trump's speech in Las Vegas last night.

Once while discussing Iraq.

"We build a school, we build a road, they blow up the school, we build another school, we build another road they blow them up, we build again, in the meantime we can't get a f***ing school in Brooklyn," Trump says.

To the audiences approval, while talking oil.

"We have nobody in Washington that sits back and said, you're not going to raise that f****ing price," he says.

And finally, while speaking about taxing Chinese goods.

"Listen you mother f***ers we're going to tax you 25 percent," Trump says.

That's your man, Franklin Graham.



[Hat tip: Mediaite]

Is Huck leaning toward a run?

Two stories out today that suggest he's very open to it.

Byron York:

These days, among the people who have known and worked with Huckabee, there is a growing sense that he's leaning toward another run for the White House.

.... Huckabee's experience during a 29-stop tour last March to promote his book, "A Simple Government," made a big impression on him. In six stops in Iowa and five in South Carolina, as well as stops in Florida and elsewhere, he met large and receptive crowds -- the living, breathing embodiment of his high poll numbers.

During the tour, Huckabee started talking more frequently with friends and political associates. If he ran, what would a campaign look like? What would it cost? How would it work?

Indeed, Huck promoted his book tour by promoting the idea that it would serve as a helpful gauge for a presidential campaign.

I don't think too many believed him, because instead, it sounded like a nice way to drum up attention for the book tour. But maybe there was something to it?

Also, CNN's Peter Hamby says Huck recently told his 2008 South Carolina campaign chair to keep his powder dry.

Pawlenty will attend first GOP debate

The Hill's Jordan Fabian on the debate's biggest participant (so far).

Tim Pawlenty on Friday committed to attend the first primary debate of the 2012 cycle to be held next Thursday in South Carolina.

.... "It's important that Republicans show up now, talk about their records, and begin the debate on how best we can defeat this president," he said.

Nice to see T-Paw goading the rest of the field and priming them for a discussion "about their records."

Drinking game is a light, strawberry daiquiri each time he says "Cato", as in, I was one of four governors awarded an 'A' by Cato.

A breezy Mike's Lemonade for "I showed that a Republican can win and lead in the land of Hubert Humphrey, Mondale, Wellstone, and now -- Al Franken."

And a bottle of Everclear for a closing statement that includes the words "Yucca Mountain."

Daniels plans promotional blitz

Erin McPike has a great look at the careful roll-out of a potential Mitch Daniels candidacy, which includes this weekend's pitch.

The campaign operative in him also has built an organization ready to go whenever he tells them to -- and the media doesn't seem to know it yet.

For the past year, he's been playing its members like piano keys as he orchestrates his national rollout.

Anthony Dolan, the chief speechwriter for the entire Reagan presidency, knows Daniels well from the time they worked together and explained, "Mitch has always been a marvel with the news dynamic." He added, "A year ago people were saying ‘Mitch who' and then comes a rollout with more elaborate choreography than a Busby Berkley musical -- we haven't seen the synchronized swimming yet, but I'm sure it's coming."

.... Starting Saturday, the Daniels administration plans to begin a promotional blitz to let people know what they accomplished in the four-month legislative session this year.

Evening eats

a. Levi Johnston wants to go on Oprah.

b. Donald Trump vs. Crickets.

c. How big a role will the tea party play in 2012?

d. Rick Santorum claims that O "doesn't believe in American foreign policy."

e. Ron Paul hits up Nevada.

f. Trig Truthers should concede, as well.

g. Gary Johnson skiing in New Hampshire, two days after announcing his bid for president.

Paul Ryan on candidate tweaks

Paul Ryan chats with John McCormack about criticism and suggestions his budget has received from potential 2012 candidates.

Newt Gingrich suggested that future seniors (those now younger than 55 scheduled to get a Medicare subsidy when they turn 65 under Ryan's plan) should have the option to stay in the current Medicare system. What's wrong with that?

"I don’t have a problem with that," Ryan replies. "I think it’s a fine idea worth considering. [Bill Clinton's budget director] Alice Rivlin and I have talked about that in the past."

.... Ryan was dismissive, however, of likely presidential candidate and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty's idea to reform Medicare through "payment reforms" that would incentivize health care providers to produce better health care outcomes.

"Medicare has yet to do this successfully," Ryan told me. "The president wants his IPAB [Independent Payment Advisory Board] to do essentially the same thing. It’s very difficult for a centralized bureaucracy to do that

.... Indiana governor Mitch Daniels seems to be the potential GOP presidential candidate most supportive of Ryan's plan. "I think that’s accurate," Ryan says. He's talked to Daniels recently about the budget in general but says "your guess is as good as mine" when asked for the odds that Daniels actually runs.

Ryan continues to have high praise for Daniels. "He understands the issues and the system pretty well," Ryan says. "He understands if we don’t fix this now, people are going to get hurt."

As for 2012 speculation about himself, Ryan wouldn't broach it saying:

"I’m not even going there with my mind or my discussions."

Is the 2012 field underrated?

Karl Rove isn't so sure (pdf) that the Republican field is weak:

Much media hay has been made over a recent CBS News/New York Times poll showing that 56% of Republicans now say they are not "enthusiastic" about any of the GOP's presidential candidates.

What has not been widely discussed, however, is that this is probably normal this early in a primary season and hardly symbolic of the race's final outcome.

In October 2007, for instance, Gallup found that less than half of Democrats (49%) say they were "enthusiastic" about voting for Barack Obama against the eventual Republican nominee. By comparison, 64% said they were enthusiastic about voting for Hillary Clinton against a Republican.

Voter "enthusiasm" as measured by polls changed little until the presidential primaries were in full swing.

Romney's lead in Nevada dips

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Mitt Romney's once formidable lead in theNevada GOP primary waning.

The reason?

The guy who gave money to Harry Reid last year -- Donald Trump -- is surging among Nevada Republicans.

1. Mitt Romney 24%

2. Donald Trump 16%

3. Newt Gingrich 11%

4. Mike Huckabee 10%

5. Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty 8%

6. Michele Bachmann 7%

7. Ron Paul 5%

Race WITHOUT Trump (notice that Newt and Palin have the most to gain without Trump)

1. Mitt Romney 29%

2. Newt Gingrich 17%

3. Sarah Palin 12%

4. Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann 9%

6. Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty 7%

Race WITHOUT Huckabee or Trump:

1. Mitt Romney 33%

2. Newt Gingrich 18%

3. Sarah Palin 14%

4. Michele Bachmann 11%

5. Tim Pawlenty 9%

6. Ron Paul 6%

Race WITHOUT Sarah Palin or Donald Trump:

1. Mitt Romney 31%

2. Newt Gingrich 16%

3. Mike Huckabee 15%

4. Michele Bachmann 11%

5. Tim Pawlenty 10%

6. Ron Paul 8%

Race WITHOUT Huckabee, Trump, or Palin:

1. Mitt Romney 38%

2. Newt Gingrich 21%

3. Michele Bachmann 14%

4. Ron Paul 10%

5. Tim Pawlenty 8%

Favorable Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney 64%/23% for 41%.

b. Newt Gingrich 61%/21% for +40%.

c. Sarah Palin 65%/26% for +39%.

d. Mike Huckabee 61%/26% for +35%.

e. Donald Trump 47%/40% for +7%.

Notes: Palin is off-the-charts in popularity among those who identify with the tea party.

85% of those have a favorable opinion of her; whereas, just 64%, 66%, and 66% say the same about Huckabee, Romney, and Trump, respectively. Newt clocks in at a solid 75%.

That being said, those same tea partiers who like Palin the best don't end up choosing her as nominee. In fact, among tea partiers, Palin only comes in 6th in voter preference -- despite her high fav numbers.

This shows what a tough path Palin has for the nomination.

Not only does she have to win over Republicans who don't like her; she also has to convince the ones who do like her to actually vote for her. That's a tall task.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has his own issues to deal with. I wrote yesterday about his improving general election fortunes and declining primary numbers; and Nevada is a good case in point.

He's the only GOP '12 candidate to beat Obama in the state and has been on the upswing in the general. But he's steadily declining in the primary.

Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters.

But in January he dropped to 31% and now he's at this 24% level. It's no coincidence that Romney's loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we've seen Pawlenty gain we've seen a corresponding Romney fall.

Gingrich probably won't attend first debate

Beth Reinhard on a stage that's getting smaller; not larger.

Newt Gingrich is unlikely to qualify for the May 5 Republican primary debate in South Carolina, his spokesman said Thursday.

The state party billed Gingrich weeks ago as one of the expected participants in the first debate of the 2012 campaign, along with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (R).

However, the party is requiring that participants have launched presidential campaigns or at least exploratory committees by Tuesday. Gingrich is still "testing the waters,'' which means he does not have to disclose donors to the Federal Elections Commission.

"It's becoming increasingly clear that we're not going to make the deadline,'' said Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler. "We had always planned to be in the debate and want to be in the debate, but I don't think we will.''

Tyler explained that Gingrich has "business entanglements'' and "contractual obligations'' that legally prevent him from immediately creating an exploratory campaign.

Daniels: I haven't made decision

Mitch Daniels, on speculation that he'll make a presidential decision this weekend.

"It absolutely won't be [this weekend] because you can't announce a decision you haven't made."

Rasmussen: Trump with small lead

Rasmussen reports shows Donald Trump leading the 2012 GOP primary race by a slim margin.

1. Donald Trump 19%

2. Mitt Romney 17%

3. Mike Huckabee 15%

4. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin 9%

6. Ron Paul 8%

7. Tim Pawlenty 5%

8. Mitch Daniels 3%

Notes: Trump leads with men; Romney leads with women.

Republican voters favor Trump, but unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the GOP primary favor Romney.

Trump wins the most tea party support; Romney gets the non-tea partiers.

Sounds like Trump vs. Romney.

Btw, if Trump flames out, these two months might forever be remembered as a cautionary tale about polls showing a celebrity shocking the political world.

Screen and video grabs with Trump's name at the top of the heap are being archived in every newsroom for 2016's inevitable dalliance with a political celebrity.

Pawlenty defends ethanol subsidies

Tim Pawlenty, after being asked yesterday about his support for ethanol subsidies, which is a key issue in Iowa.

"We can't just pull the rug out from under the industry," he said.

"There are going to have to be some changes, but we have to be fair-minded about it."

Earlier this year, the National Review's Katrina Trinko detailed the ethanol records of Mitch Daniels and T-Paw, among others.

She found that both were good friends to the industry -- an uncomfortable, ideological brotherhood, but politically-helpful in both Iowa and their own states.

When Mitch Daniels was sworn in as governor in January of 2005, there was one ethanol plant in Indiana. Now there are twelve operating plants and a thirteenth set to start running early next year.

This isn’t an accident: Daniels aimed to increase Indiana’s annual ethanol and biodiesel production to 1 billion gallons by 2008.

As for T-Paw:

Pawlenty signed legislation mandating that all gas sold in Minnesota contain 20 percent ethanol by 2013, up from 10 percent.... In 2005, Pawlenty also urged other states, at a meeting of the Governors’ Ethanol Coalition (which had 31 member states at the time), to mandate that all gasoline contain 10 percent ethanol by 2010.

And it goes on.

The Wall Street Journal also slammed Newt Gingrich for his coziness with the industry, concluding:

Some pandering is inevitable in presidential politics, but, befitting a college professor, Mr. Gingrich insists on portraying his low vote-buying as high "intellectual" policy.

This doesn't bode well for his judgment as a president. Even Al Gore now admits that the only reason he supported ethanol in 2000 was to goose his presidential prospects, and the only difference now between Al and Newt is that Al admits he was wrong.

So T-Paw's not alone, although it's a lonely cause outside the Iowa GOP.

Rand Paul mocks Trump

Jeff Zeleny reports on KY Sen. Rand Paul's chat at a New Hampshire breakfast today.

“I’ve come to New Hampshire today because I’m very concerned,” Mr. Paul said. “I want to see the original long-form certificate of Donald Trump’s Republican registration.”

As a bit of laughter erupted in the room, he added: “Seriously, don’t you think we need to see that?

.... I’m going to believe it when I see his embossed seal to his Republican registration."

And unlike Dick Morris, it doesn't sound like Paul will give Trump a pass on the Harry Reid donation.

".... it’s going to be hard for him to explain giving $4,800 to Harry Reid in the last cycle and giving $24,000 to Charlie Rangel,” Mr. Paul said, noting that Mr. Trump’s appeal to the Tea Party movement will erode once those contributions become well known.

Dick Morris: Trump is Mr. Economy

Dick Morris gave him the title last night.

MORRIS: I think he's going to run. I think that he's going to be a very effective candidate, because the number one issue is the economy, and he is Mr. Economy.

BILL O'REILLY: Okay, but they're going to try to paint him as invading Iraqi oil fields, starting World War 3, slapping 25% on the Chinese, starting a trade war. They're going to try to scare people away from Donald Trump, and I'm not saying 'they' -- the Obama people -- [I'm saying] the Republican establishment is going to do that.

MORRIS: I think the more likely attack by Republicans is "you're not a Republican." You know, he gave money to Harry Reid.

O'REILLY: 56% of his political donations have been to Democrats.

MORRIS: But name me one opportunistic businessman that tried to make a profit...

O'REILLY: [interrupting] .... yeah, he's got properties in Vegas.

MORRIS: When you open a casino in Vegas, you pay your state taxes, and you give money to Harry Reid.

Will GOP primary voters forgive a donation to Harry Reid, because the soi-disant, populist Trump was just being an "opportunistic businessman"?

MA Republicans don't like RomneyCare

Republicans in Massachusetts don't like their state's health care plan, at all, according to a new Magellan Strategies poll.

Only 29% say they want to keep RomneyCare, while 53% say they want it repealed and replaced.

Forty-two percent of respondents to the poll said they believe Romney’s health care law will harm his chances in the 2012 Republican presidential campaign. However, forty-three percent think it will make no difference and thirteen percent say is will help him.

R's in Massachusetts won't decide the election, but their dissatisfaction with the program could deprive Romney of the argument that his plan is working.

[Hat tip: Alexander Burns]

Unnamed Republican nips Obama in PA

A Quinnipiac poll confirms an earlier survey by Public Policy Polling, showing Barack Obama struggling in Pennsylvania.

Only 42% think he deserves reelection, while 52% say he doesn't. That includes a huge gap of -19% among independents.

Meanwhile, an unnamed Republican beats him 41%-40%, which represents 7% swing from two months ago.

Q pollster, Peter Brown:

"President Barack Obama's re-election team has work to do in the Keystone State.

Although Pennsylvania has traditionally been a swing state, the size of his 2008 margin gave many observers the idea that it would not be a heavily contested state."

"It's still 18 months until Election Day 2012, but these numbers are not going to make the White House happy."

The Public Policy Polling survey had Mitt Romney edging him by 1%, while Huckabee lost by just 1% and Rick Santorum, 2%.

Of course, polls are just snapshots -- and as Kirstie Alley has shown over the years -- those are often ephemeral and dangerously deceptive.

But if Obama is worrying about Pennsylvania, he can't afford to be too greedy about North Carolina. Unless, of course, he has $1 billion.

Grover Norquist doesn't think Palin or Huck will run

Americans for Tax Reform president and conservative icon, Grover Norquist, talks to The Hill about the big, remaining undecideds.

"I don't think Huckabee's running ... And I don't think the lady from Alaska's running."

.... Both Palin and Huckabee "appear to be thinking about it," the longtime conservative activist said, but neither is staffing up in such a way to suggest that they'll eventually run.

Both former governors might be better-suited to keep their name in the running and maintain their influence in the GOP by keeping their name in the race for 2016, Norquist suggested, even if they pass on a race next year.

Last year, Norquist attended a star-studded, private Breakers Dinner in Florida, where -- according to Newsmax -- Sarah Palin made something of a case for president.

Dick Morris said she knocked everyone's socks off, but earlier this month, Norquist seemed cold to the idea of a Palin bid.

“My sense is that Sarah Palin’s power comes not from the sense that people expect her to be president, or even want her to be president

.... Her power lies in the fact that conservatives trust her judgment and that she has this ability to serve as a stamp of approval on candidates, on ideas."

Intrigue over Huckabee's plans

The Huffington Post's Jon Ward reports that speculation suggesting Mike Huckabee isn't running for president actually means he might be.

The issue: a report by a South Carolina operative -- one known for some past mischief -- that Huck is telling 2008 supporters in the state that they can sign with other campaigns because he isn't going to run.

Of course, Huck's camp denied the report, and a source told Ward that Huck is actually ramping up a bid.

The explanation -- Huckabee's in the process of a hiring a new, far sleeker campaign team than he had in the state last time, and doesn't need the old hands.

Evening eats

a. Newt Gingrich vs. Secular Fanaticism.

b. Paul Ryan vs. Barack Obama.

c. Nikki Haley vs. Debate Ennui.

d. Herman Cain vs. RomneyCare.

e. Donald Trump vs. Consistency.

f. Ann Coulter vs. A few months ago.

g. Donald Trump vs. Swing Voters.

h. Mitch Daniels vs. Deadlines.

i. Sarah Palin vs. Restraint.

Bachmann ready for scrum

Michele Bachmann, after Bill O'Reilly asked if she'd attack Donald Trump during a 2012 race.

"I think you mix it up.

Hey, I grew up in a house with three brothers and no sisters. I think that's the best preparation you can have for the political field."

Of course, they'll all go negative on each other -- or run contrast ads -- but it's refreshing to see Bachmann itching for the fight.

Trump: I'll honor tax release pledge (later)

Earlier this month, Donald Trump promised to release his tax forms if Barack Obama released his birth certificate.

Today, Obama did his part, so Trump says he'll do his part -- probably, but only in June.

“That’s something I would be thinking about doing anyway. That is certainly something I’d be thinking about doing anyway. But before I do anything I have to make the decision in June and the first thing I’m going to be releasing will be financials,” Trump said.

[ABC's Michael] Falcone asked again, will you fulfill that pledge that you made where you said I’m going to tie the birth certificate to my tax records?

“Yeah, at the appropriate time,” Trump responded.

“So you’ll do it?”

“Yeah, at the appropriate time I’m going to do it,” Trump told him.

Romney leads Obama in Nevada

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Mitt Romney is the sole GOP '12er who beats Barack Obama in Nevada, although a couple come close.

a. Mitt Romney 46% Barack Obama 43%

b. Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 43%

c. Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 42%

d. Barack Obama 47% Donald Trump 41%

e. Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 39%

THREE-WAY RACES:

a. Barack Obama (D) 42% Mitt Romney (R) 34% Donald Trump (I) 20%

b. Barack Obama (D) 44% Mike Huckabee (R) 30% Donald Trump (I) 21%

Favorable Ratings:

a. Mitt Romney 43%/43% for even.

b. Mike Huckabee 36%/45% for -9%.

c. Donald Trump 39%/52% for -13%.

d. Newt Gingrich 33%/53% for -20%.

e. Sarah Palin 34%/61% for -27%.

Barack Obama's approval rating is 45%/52% for -7%.

Notes: Nice results for Romney and Huckabee; even Gingrich makes the state way more competitive than John McCain did in 2008 when Obama won by nearly 13%.

Well, Obama is making the state competitive, thanks to his bad approval numbers.

Romney is strongest, which isn't a surprise considering he dominated the state in the 2008 caucuses and benefits from a big Mormon population.

He leads indies, huge -- 58%-27% and siphons off 7% more Democrats than Obama does Republicans.

Pollster Tom Jensen:

There are two problems contributing to Obama's poor numbers.

The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he's doing to 65% who disapprove.

The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don't like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that's pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.

Limbaugh: Trump won

Rush Limbaugh pays tribute to Donald Trump, after Barack Obama released his birth certificate this morning.

"It takes a reality star to force Obama's hand on his birth certificate.

... it shows -- and this is going to irritate a lot of people -- what it shows is Trump's ability to connect with average voters in a way that -- well, nobody else had been able to connect on this, nobody else has been able to force Obama to do this.

How long has it been going on? Two and a half years, even longer than that. All of a sudden, here comes Trump and, lo and behold, they produce the long form birth certificate."

There's a big debate going on in the 'sphere right now about whether this hurt or helped Trump. Rush sides with the Donald.

Santorum's path

I talk with CBN's David Brody and The Washington Post's Aaron Blake about Rick Santorum's 2012 chances.

Vid via Brody File.

Romney's primary problem

In my new column, I write about Mitt Romney's rise in general election polling and concurrent slip in primary polling.

These polls suggest we’re seeing the first hard numbers backing up a point pundits have been making for some time — that Romney might have a tougher time winning the GOP primary than the general election.

The reason for that? As always, Romney’s troubles come down to his healthcare program in Massachusetts, which Fox’s Brit Hume described as the “millstone around his neck” because of its similarities to Obama’s.

According to Rasmussen Reports, 53 percent of likely voters favor some sort of repeal of the president’s healthcare program, with many more Republicans disapproving than Democrats and independents.

That, then, would explain why talk of “RomneyCare,” which is what his critics call Massachusetts’s healthcare program, hurts more at the primary, not general-election, level, and would explain the phenomenon we’ve seen with his numbers the past few months.

Running against an incumbent president might be hard, but for Romney, running against his own party is even harder.

PHOTO: Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin

The Hollywood Reporter has the first pic of Julianne Moore, playing Sarah Palin in the upcoming HBO movie, Game Change.

Click here to see it. It's a pretty good likeness.

[Hat tip: Brahm Resnik]

Over 60% wouldn't vote for Trump or Palin

A significant majority of registered voters say they'd never vote for Donald Trump or Sarah Palin -- according to a new Gallup poll.

And in keeping with the idea that Trump has now eclipsed Palin as the most polarizing figure in the 2012 GOP field, Gallup finds that nearly half of Republicans say they definitely wouldn't vote for him.

The first table shows results among registered voters; the second among Republicans.

Iowa governor doesn't think Daniels will run

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, on whether Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels will toss his hat in the ring.

"I don't know if he's got the fire in the belly, drive and desire to run for president of the United States. I haven't seen it.

At this point, I don't think it's likely that he'll run."

Gingrich wants to know why Obama waited so long

Evan McMorris-Santoro askedNewt Gingrich at the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast about Barack Obama's birth certificate release.

He laughed when asked for his reaction and cautioned, "I haven't even looked at it yet."

But he did offer a quick take on the president's decision to take on the birther movement head on -- or, as Obama put it earlier, to put the issue to rest once and for all.

"All I would say is, why did it take so long?" Gingrich said. "The whole thing is strange."

What Romney wants

Mitt Romney responds to the birth certificate's release.

What President Obama should really be releasing is a jobs plan

Palin credits Trump for certificate release

Sarah Palin bows to Donald Trump, after the Obama White House released his long-form birth certificate this morning.

Media: admit it, Trump forced the issue. Now, don't let the WH distract you w/the birth crt from what Bernanke says today. Stay focused, eh?

Trump "honored" that Obama released birth certificate

Donald Trump in New Hampshire today, talking about Barack Obama's decision to release his birth certificate.

"I am really happy, and honestly, I'm very proud that I was able to bring this to a point.

Nobody else was. The Clintons during their campaign weren't. All of the other people that talked about it for years -- they weren't.

I am really honored by this."

Palin: Birthers are just "curious"

Sarah Palin gave the birther movement more than the benefit of the doubt on Fox News last night.

"I think the media is loving this, because they want to make to make birthers, as they call people who are just curious about the president of the United States and his background and his associations and his consistency with what he says today versus what he said in both the memoirs that he wrote or Bill Ayers or whomever wrote.

The media is loving the fact that some curious Americans are actually asking the questions, and they're trying to make those curious Americans sound kind of crazy.

So the media is loving this issue, and they're perpetuating the issue and trying to make it sound really worse than it is."

Note that she designated birthers with the quite benign and somewhat whimsical word, "curious", three times.

Report: Fox pushing Huckabee to make decision

Howard Kurtz:

[Huckabee's] Fox News bosses would like him either to jump into the White House race soon or announce that he's taking a pass.

.... Fox has planned a meeting with Huckabee in the near future to discuss the matter, said [Fox News' executive vice-president for programming Bill] Shine.

Huckabee said the notion that Fox is pressuring him over the situation is "total nonsense. Your source is full of it," he told me by email. "No pressure at all. Fox has been very understanding and they know and I know that if I take steps to be a candidate (ask for money, support, or set up a committee), then I will step aside. That's been understood from the beginning."

True, but some executives are concerned about Huckabee continuing to host a weekend show while stoking interest in a possible second presidential campaign. "It's getting uncomfortable," said a Fox insider.

Fox cut Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum from its roster once it was apparent they were close to announcing a bid.

Huckabee's status at Fox seems even more questionable, thanks to the fact he has his own popular show on the network -- something Newt or Santorum never got.

The cute two-step that Fox's presidential candidates have been dancing may be coming to an end.

Evening eats

a. Ron Paul gets ready.

b. Newt Gingrich talks about his conversion.

c. Chuck Grassley didn't care for Haley Barbour anyway.

d. Donald Trump will visit a Portsmouth gift shop.

e. The case for Paul Ryan.

f. The Jindal juggernaut.

g. D-Day approaches for Mitch Daniels' truce.

h. Ron Paul shouldn't be yawned at.

i. Haley Barbour's camp was torn.

j. "It's getting better all the time."

Rudy calls Trump "most exciting candidate" in race

Rudy Giuliani, to the Washington Times:

“I think Donald Trump is the most exciting candidate in the race.... I know he says some things that are controversial, but I think he does it from the heart.

I think he is doing as well as he’s doing because he’s saying things the American people need to hear — about leadership and about strength and about being proud of America and not apologizing for America. So I think he’s resonating.”

That being said, he's no birther.

"It’s been proven to my satisfaction that the president was born in the United States. The documented copy [of his birth certificate] is enough for me."

Yes, Trump is the hottest property out there right now, but praising him betrays an awfully short-term perspective.

[Hat tip: Ben Birnbaum]

Thumbs down

Movie guy, Richard Roeper, on a Trump presidency.

Imagine President Trump feuding with global enemies.

“I’ve met Kim Jong Il. Guy’s a midget. Who cares what a midget thinks! I take dumps bigger than that guy.”

Ed Rollins thinks Huckabee will run

Mike Huckabee's 2008 campaign chair, Ed Rollins, tells the National Review that Huck will likely jump in.

Rollins also doesn’t see Huckabee’s lucrative Fox News contract as determining his decision.

“He [Huckabee] has told me obviously that’s a consideration,” Rollins says, “but he’s said I’ve also never done anything in my life for money. So I think at the end of the day, that’s not a factor to him.”

.... “If he thinks he can win the nomination for the presidency, then I think he’ll go,” Rollins says.

Meanwhile, John Ellis says that if Huck does get in, he's the favorite.

.... he seems a prohibitive favorite to win the Iowa caucuses, a likely loser in the New Hampshire primary (to Mitt Romney), thus setting up a showdown between the Christian and the Mormon in South Carolina.

Huckabee wins that in a walk and probably sweeps the remaining Southern primaries and becomes, de facto, the GOP nominee.

Republican presidential candidates who carry the South in the primaries win the GOP nomination.

Nate Silver thinks Huckabee should run

Nate Silver, to Matt Lewis, about Mike Huckabee.

"The guy who still has a pretty clear path to the nomination -- if he wants to run -- is Mike Huckabee. You have a conspicuous lack of southern candidates in this field, relative to normal.

He’s as much of a front-runner as anyone -- if you look at the polls right now -- along with Romney and maybe with Trump, I suppose, if you go by the numbers.

But, you know, I don’t know why Huckabee wouldn’t want to make a run here. I think he polls reasonably well against Barack Obama -- better than anyone except for Mitt Romney. He's basically got as much support as any other candidate."

Could Ryan really unite the right?

AllahPundit pours cold water; not Gatorade, on the politics of Paul Ryan for President.

Would he be a unifying, consensus figure?

He voted for TARP, the tax on AIG bonuses, and the auto bailout. Some would forgive him for that given his leadership on the 2012 budget, but some — like the libertarian wing — wouldn’t. Meanwhile, Democrats are planning to use his budget proposal to drive a wedge within the party by forcing a vote in the Senate and making centrist Republicans choke on the Medicare and tax provisions.

.... Like it or not, he’d be a huge risk with seniors given the left’s nascent “Mediscare” campaign against him. In 18 months, for many low-information voters, he’ll be the grinch who wants to take away grandma’s heart medicine to save a few pennies.

Barbour's decision was tightly-kept

James Richardson, a communications adviser to Haley Barbour, writes that he was as surprised as any about his boss' decision not to run.

While his staff knew a campaign was not foreordained, aides operated under the presumption the governor would, ultimately, pursue a presidential bid.

Boy, were we wrong.

His decision was a closely held one: the governor only informed aides and a cadre of confidants minutes before a prepared statement found its way into the hands of reporters. And it was, no doubt, a difficult one, if his depressed cadence and departure from his otherwise infectious laughter were an accurate indication.

Obama calls Mitch Daniels "serious"

Barack Obama, in an interview with Indiana's WTHR.

“You know, it’s a little early to start prognosticating. I’m going to let the Republicans sort out who they think their standard-bearer should be.

.... I think Governor Daniels is a serious person. I have some significant philosophical differences with him.”

[Hat tip: Aaron Blake]

Huckabee, Trump tied in West Virginia

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee tied in a GOP primary.

1. Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump 24%

3. Sarah Palin 13%

4. Mitt Romney 11%

5. Newt Gingrich 9%

6. Tim Pawlenty 4%

7. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul 3%

Among BIRTHERS:

1. Donald Trump 30%

2. Mike Huckabee 22%

3. Sarah Palin 17%

4. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich 8%

6. Ron Paul 5%

7. Tim Pawlenty 3%

8. Michele Bachmann 1%

Favorable Ratings:

a. Mike Huckabee 73%/10% for +63%.

b. Sarah Palin 67%/18% for +49%.

c. Newt Gingrich 57%/20% for +37%.

d. Mitt Romney 51%/23% for +28%.

e. Donald Trump 47%/33% for +14%.

Notes: I've written to the point of reader boredom about Huck and Palin's supporters' gender divide, but it's always so fascinating and just totally there.

Huck destroys her among women, 26%-9%, while Palin nearly matches him among men, 21%-17%.

Something else to note: Trump seems to have overtaken Palin as the most polarizing candidate in the field.

His favorable rating is the worst of the major contenders, yet he's still tied for the lead in voter preference.

So why does Trump seem to be resonating in a state where over half of GOP voters don't think Obama was born in the U.S.?

That's rhetorical, but here's pollster Tom Jensen, anyway.

With the voters who think Obama was born in the US Trump gets just 15%, putting him in third place behind Huckabee and Romney. But with the folks who think Obama was not Trump gets 30% putting him 8 points ahead of Huckabee and allowing him the overall tie.

DeMint wants seat at table

SC. Sen. Jim DeMint puts himself in a growing category -- '12 prospects who aren't running but aren't going to be silent.

"I'm not running for president, but I will be working with grass-roots activists across the country to ensure the next Republican nominee has the principles and courage necessary to save our country."

Btw, Chris Christie has also been frank about his bid to shape the field.

He recently told the New York Times:

"What I'm trying to do is inspire a conversation among those people who want to be president.... it doesn't mean you can't have opinions on what the national issues should be just because you're not willing to run for president yourself.

I think that's a false choice. I could still be part of a vigorous, national debate and weigh in with my views on those things without having to offer myself for the presidency."

Priebus looking for more candidates

Jon Ward on Republican National Committee chair, Reince Preibus' chat at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast today.

The GOP leader declined to predict who those candidates might be, but he confirmed the widespread dissatisfaction with the current field.

“We don’t know who’s going to be in the race," said Reince Priebus, the RNC chairman, at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. "I think it’s still pretty early. It’s 19 months until November.”

.... The RNC chairman -- who is friends with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the name and face of the GOP’s plan to address the nation’s long-term debt problem -- said he believed that because of the stakes of the 2012 election, some would feel “compelled” to become candidates for president.

“The very idea of America is at stake in this next election."

Stewart takes on Trump

By taking on early polls.

The Daily Show - Indecision 2012 - Premature Ecalculation
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

[Hat tip: Huffington Post]

Barbour: Man without a constituency

Nate Silver makes a good point in my last free, New York Times article of the month.

Religious conservatives had more natural choices (Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum), as did Tea Party conservatives (Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich), Republican establishment voters (Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty), moderates (Mitch Daniels and Jon Huntsman) and marginally attached, low-information voters (Donald Trump and Sarah Palin.)

That's an interesting, new designation for Palin and Trump supporters: "marginally attached, low-information voters."

Romney: Obama is "losing the future"

Mitt Romney, in a 44 second clip that could turn into a general election ad.

Note his nod toward Obama as being "a nice guy" -- a concession to the fact that the POTUS remains popular on a personal level, while becoming increasingly troubled on a political level.

"The president says he's about winning the future. Well, people are losing the present.

You've got people suffering in this country. Unemployment is not a statistic. Unemployment is people who can't find work. Unemployment is college kids who can't complete their education. Unemployment is seniors that don't know whether they can retire.

This unemployment crisis that's been going on is an extraordinary failure. It's part of what I call The Obama Misery Index.

And it's why, in my view, this man is going to get tossed from office.

He's a nice guy, but he just doesn't understand what it takes to get the economy going to make America competitive globally, to rein in the size of the federal government, and to allow the American spirit of entrepreneurship and innovation put Americans back to work."

Huck's defections

The Iowa Republican on Mike Huckabee's splintered Roman empire.

Huckabee’s 2008 Iowa team:

State Chair Bob Vander Plaats: Pledged to stay impartial through at least November; CEO of The Family Leader, which is hosting a “Presidential Lecture Series” for all willing candidates

Coalition’s director Matt Reisetter: Working for the Family Leader; group has pledged to stay impartial through at least November

State Co-Chair Danny Carroll: Committed to Judge Roy Moore’s campaign.

Grassroots organizer Susan Geddes: Committed to Herman Cain’s campaign.

Iowa campaign manager Eric Woolson: Doing communications for Tim Pawlenty’s campaign

Iowa political director Wes Enos: Will work for Michelle Bachmann’s campaign

Field staffer Aubrie Johnson: Supporting Tim Pawlenty

Organizational director Trainor Walsh: Working in Washington, D.C.

Senator Kent Sorenson: Will back Michelle Bachmann

Romney: Birther issue a footnote

On Fox News last night, Mitt Romney said that the election won't be about a birth certificate.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN: This birther issue has gotten so much traction.

Does it distract from you, does it create issues for you, as you go around the country with your message?

Does it in any way distract from you?

ROMNEY: I hear very little about that. What I hear as I go across the country really falls into two things which are related.

Number one, how do we create more jobs again, how do we make America the most attractive place in the world for entrepreneurs, for innovators, for job creators?

And number two, how do we scale back the size of the federal government?

....

VAN SUSTEREN: So I never have to ask you again, let me ask you now. Do you believe that President Obama was born in the United States or not?

ROMNEY: Sure, I believe he was born in the United States. And frankly, I think the way forward to have him retired after one-term in office is that people understand how bad his policies have been.

Romney: Come on in, Donald

Mitt Romney tells Greta Van Susteren that he'd welcome Donald Trump to the debate stage.

"Look, he's a terrific guy, and I wish him the very best and hope he gets in the race.

The water's fine. Come on in."

There are two ways of looking at Trump, if he participates in the numerous GOP presidential debates.

1. The other candidates will look better when contrasted with Trump's talk about stealing oil from Libya.

2. The other candidates will look worse when contrasted with Trump's talk about stealing oil from Libya.

Both are genuine possibilities, which is why it's so unnerving for the rest to have Trump up there.

Newt's new film

Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann make cameos in the trailer.

Evening eats

a. Tim Pawlenty praises Haley Barbour.

b. Nikki Haley wants '12ers to do more than bash Obama.

c. All about Palin's enemies.

d. Sartorial Rx for Mitch.

e. Ron Paul's media blitz signals something big.

f. Some helpful advice if you want to buy presidential ads.

g. Trump has eight, unannounced stops in New Hampshire.

h. Brit Hume thinks Obama would lose big if election were held today.

Ron Paul will make "important announcement" tomorrow

Jordan Fabian:

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) is scheduled to make an "important announcement" about his political organization on Tuesday in Iowa, according to his political action committee.

The two-time presidential candidate is scheduled to make his announcement during a press conference in the state capital of Des Moines at 4:45 p.m. East Coast time, his political committee LibertyPAC said in a release.

The move signals that Paul is likely to make a formal move regarding his likely presidential campaign.

Exit Haley Barbour, enter Ron Paul. Must be an incumbent president someplace.

Barbour won't run for president

Haley Barbour made his decision at the end of April like he always promised to. It just wasn't what most people expected.

He announced this afternoon that he won't be running for president.

"I will not be a candidate for president next year. This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.

Hundreds of people have encouraged me to run and offered both to give and raise money for a presidential campaign. Many volunteers have organized events in support of my pursuing the race. Some have dedicated virtually full time to setting up preliminary organizations in critical, early states and to helping plan what has been several months of intensive activity.

I greatly appreciate each and every one of them and all their outstanding efforts. If I have disappointed any of them in this decision, I sincerely regret it.

A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else.

His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required.

This decision means I will continue my job as Governor Mississippi, my role in the Republican Governors Association and my efforts to elect a new Republican president in 2012, as the stakes for the nation require that effort to be successful."

A few things.

1. A lot of people tended to treat him as a serious candidate just because they knew he was a serious person, strategist, and smart guy.

But his lobbying past would've really hurt, even though he tried turning it into a strength by playing up the possibility of being a "lobbyist-in-chief". Actually, that was probably the smartest way of dressing it up, but it still looked like Hedo Turkoglu.

2. Barbour and Mitch Daniels are enormously close. One month ago, the CW was that Barbour would run and Mitch wouldn't.

But now, the path is open for Daniels to fight for the nomination without having to fight his friend. So, "frenemies" is out!

3. Look at Barbour questioning the fire in his belly. Believable? Yes, no?

Interestingly enough, he had said a few things the past month that indicated he was thinking a lot about the strain of a run, and his wife said the prospect of it horrified her.

Having said that, he probably was also looking at the possibility of a win, which seemed remote. Huckabee, for example, fared better than Barbour against Barack Obama in Mississippi -- a place where name ID would be eliminated in current polling.

Then there's the fact he just wasn't connecting with southern voters.

4. This means John Kasich's endorsement is up-for-grabs.

5. Most interesting question going forward. How does Barbour reposition himself, ideologically?

He'd jumped back and forth a number of times on Mitch Daniels' call for a truce, and people who've been following him tend to think that, while socially-conservative, his real goal is building the party; not promoting a strict ideology.

Also, he's delivered some of the sharpest attacks on RomneyCare. Will he start softening his rhetoric toward the Republican front-runner?