a. Marco Rubio blasts "Left-wing strong man" Obama.
b. Michele Bachmann is "the first big surge".
c. Larry Sabato's updated 2012 crystal ball.
d. Tim Pawlenty's pastor retires.
e. Jon Huntsman won't sign a pro-life pledge.
f. Nikki Haley's star grows brighter.
g. Rick Santorum schedules 10-city Iowa tour.
h. John Thune's hint for getting a WH invite.
i. Newt Gingrich makes an Office joke.
j. Check out this pic of Huck and Clinton from 2005.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Evening eats
Rick Perry's calculus
Jon Ward has a great look at two keys helping guide Rick Perry's decision about jumping into the race.
1. Can he generate as much enthusiasm as Michele Bachmann?
2. Can he generate enough money to be competitive with Mitt Romney?
To that end, a Perry operative was at a Bachmann overflow event in South Carolina last night, snapping pics.
Indies abandoning Obama in Virginia
A new Quinnipiac poll shows signs of trouble for Barack Obama in Virginia.
Even though he edges a generic Republican in a 2012 match, independents are breaking from him in a big way.
a. His approval rating among indies is -13%.
b. 53% of indies don't think he deserves reelection, while just 39% do.
c. Indies prefer a generic Republican over him by 6%.
Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, who's been open to the idea of a vice-presidential campaign, sports a 55%/26% approval rating.
Rick Perry charms in California
CNN's Kevin Bohn on Rick Perry's California swing.
CNN has learned Perry on Wednesday met with Alex Spanos, a major San Diego businessman and part co-owner of the San Diego Chargers football team who has been a supporter of Perry's in the past as well as some others who could be financial backers if he mounts a campaign.
"He charmed the birds right out of the trees," a Republican consultant familiar with the meeting told CNN.
You know what's a sign of Obama's falling fortunes? A few months ago, the media was buzzing about Donald Trump as a driver of grassroots passion.
Now it's buzzing about Rick Perry, a three-term governor. Nice upgrade, indeed, for Republicans.
DeMint's theory of endorsements
In talking about whether Marco Rubio will endorse a '12 candidate, Jim DeMint admits that there are political reasons for saying you're undecided even if you're not.
"He's got every reason to delay, just as I'm doing, because the closer it gets to the primary, the more valuable that endorsement will be and the more we'll know about the candidates."
Of course, that's obvious to anyone, but the fact he acknowledges it is refreshingly candid.
Meanwhile, Rubio is "pretty sure" he'll stay neutral in the primary.
For his part, DeMint's endorsement is highly coveted, and he's recently trotted out a pledge that he says is mandatory for anyone wanting his backing.
Bill Clinton: Romney is better this time
Mitt Romney's more casual wardrobe, focus on the economy, and refusal to apologize for RomneyCare seems to have impressed Bill Clinton, who talked about the 2012 field today in an interview airing on ABC today.
"Governor Romney's doing a better job as a candidate this time than he did four years ago.
He comes across as more relaxed and more convicted about what he did do. Less willing to just be forced into apologizing for it [health care]."
He also called Jon Huntsman "impressive."
"I think he's quite an impressive man. He's refreshingly, kind of, unhide-bound, comes across as non-ideological -- conservative, but non-ideological. Practical."
And acknowledged Michele Bachmann's appeal.
"I'm not surprised by how well Michele Bachmann's done. I've been watching her speak. She comes across as a real person. All those foster children she's taken in, the children who she's raised, the work she's done."
Clinton's always been a keen observer of GOP political talent. During 2008's campaign, he often praised Mike Huckabee's connection to voters.
In fact, on that score, he was more attuned than most the GOP establishment, which seemed to hope that ignoring Huck would make him go away.
Clinton's comments today come 4:10 in, via ABC.
Obama holds solid lead in New Mexico
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, former NM Gov. Gary Johnson is the only one who makes it close against Barack Obama in New Mexico.
a. Barack Obama 46% Gary Johnson 43%
b. Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42%
c. Barack Obama 51% Tim Pawlenty 36%
d. Barack Obama 52% Michele Bachmann 37%
e. Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 36%
Favorable Ratings:
a. Gary Johnson 43%/40% for +3%.
b. Herman Cain 24%/27% for -3%.
c. Michele Bachmann 30%/42% for -12%.
d. Mitt Romney 33%/46% for -13%.
e. Tim Pawlenty 20%/35% for -15%.
f. Sarah Palin 31%/61% for -30%.
Barack Obama's approval rating is 50%/44% for +6%.
Obama won the state by 15% in 2008, and Romney cuts that in half, which speaks to his relative strength.
Every other '12 challenger, save for Johnson, loses by as much or more than McCain.
SarahPAC offers donors new film
Even though she had no control or technical involvement with the pro-her film, The Undefeated, Sarah Palin is quite fond of promoting it.
On Tuesday, she was in Iowa to attend its premiere and now her political action committee is offering an "early release" DVD of it to donors for contributions of $100 or more.
Huntsman's son attends Romney rally
The Salt Lake Tribune reports (and has a pic!) of Jon Huntsman's son, Will, amidst a throng of well-wishers for Mitt Romney last week.
Jon Huntsman’s campaign suggested people should not to read into the appearance.
“Will wanted to see another campaign event,” Huntsman spokesman Tim Miller said when shown the photo. “He was having fun, and it was not his intention to be disrespectful in any way.
He even got his picture snapped with Mitt.
Sarah Palin's book-signing rule
It was a handy arrangement for Bristol Palin yesterday as she signed copies of her new memoir at the Mall of America with Sarah Palin by her side.
According to the book-signing event's rules, Palin fans had to buy Bristol's book in order to get Sarah to sign one of her two books, "America by Heart" or "Going Rogue."
Btw, mall officials say about 1,500 attended the signing -- a good number, but well below Hillary Clinton's 4,000 for her signing in 2003.
Perry strategist claims "surprising" support in New Hampshire
[Rick] Perry strategist David Carney tells us that the amount of interest Perry has generated in New Hampshire has been unexpected.
“We are preparing to sit down over the next several weeks and begin to assess the time frame” for a decision, Carney said.
“The amount of organic calls of support from New Hampshire has been surprising since Governor Perry has yet to visit,” said Carney.
“But we’re still in the data collection stage. In the coming weeks, we will present this information to the governor and he’ll made his decision.”
Sounds like someone who's ready to jump in.
Weak fundraising for GOP candidates
The Fix notes that at this comparable point in the 2008 cycle, the three Republican front-runners -- Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain -- raised nearly $53 million.
Tomorrow, we'll likely hear that Romney raised less this quarter than he did in the '08 cycle's first active quarter, with the whole field way down, as well.
Perry to meet with CA lawmakers
Earlier, I blogged about Rick Perry's meeting today with The New Majority in California.
He's also got another huddle today, according to The San Francisco Chronicle.
[Perry's] got a date with a crowd of Sacramento Republicans -- and Assemblyman Dan Logue, says he's been innundated, "people from all over" are calling and wanting in on the meeting.
Logue, R-Linda, should know: he kicked off the "Draft Rick Perry 2012" movement in California and signed up about two dozen state legislators urging Perry to make a go of it.
Iowa governor: Bachmann doesn't have executive experience
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has qualified praise for Michele Bachmann.
“She’s an exciting candidate, she brings a lot of enthusiasm and I think she helps to rally the Republican base and I certainly have a lot of respect for her,” said Branstad.
“But she doesn’t have the executive experience that governors have.”
Read the rest of Jonathan Martin's fascinating report on whom top GOP governors are thinking about getting behind.
The general consensus -- it won't be Bachmann.
Both Branstad and McDonnell readily agreed that the GOP’s governors corps could consolidate around one of their current or former colleagues if, later this year, the race becomes a choice between Bachmann and whichever of the governors appears as the strongest candidate.
“If there seems to be one of the governors distinguishing himself or herself you may see a coalescing around that candidate,” said McDonnell in an interview.
“That could well happen,” Branstad agreed, before floating a suggestion that the Minnesotan be put on the ticket as the number two.
“You also could have a situation where you may end up with Bachmann becoming the vice-presidential candidate,” said the Iowan.
Romney, Obama battle in Pennsylvania today
A poignant setting for Mitt Romney's visit to Pennsylvania today:
He'll visit the same plant, Allentown Metal Works, that Obama visited in December of 2009 to tout his $787 billion stimulus.
Obama talked up the plant in a subsequent Saturday radio address, too, but the 100-year-old plant eventually closed down this January after the stimulus dollars it had been promised didn't come through.
Barack Obama will attend two DNC fundraisers in southeastern Pennsylvania later in the day.
UPDATE: Romney's got a new web ad, highlighting the Allentown failure.
Perry meets privately with California Republicans
The Orange County Register reports that Rick Perry will hold a private chat with The New Majority's San Diego chapter today.
The group boasts some major donors, and has already met with Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman.
It plans to meet with all '12 presidential candidates, and is another sign that Perry could be prepping a bid.
Santorum: Pawlenty isn't more hawkish
On Greta Van Susteren's show last night, Rick Santorum said that Tim Pawlenty's effort to become the field's leading hawk on foreign policy would run up against a Santorum Wall.
SANTORUM: He's going to have a hard time getting to the right of me on being aggressive and making sure that America is assertive around the world. I'm a strong believer and have a great track record of making sure that we are protecting our national security.
I've supported actions and I've supported -- before Governor Pawlenty gave a speech -- actions in Iran.
When I was in the United States Senate, I led with the Iran Freedom Support Act, which was sanctions, and helping the pro-democracy movement. So he's going to have a hard time differentiating from me.
VAN SUSTEREN: What about some of the other candidates? What about Speaker Gingrich?
SANTORUM: He has a point -- that some of the others, Governor Romney, Speaker Gingrich and others, have made comments about concern about some of the actions. I think the concern is mostly around the president's treatment of our military and the president's indecisiveness in dealing with, particularly, Libya and Syria.
As usual, you can leave the digs to Santorum, who's been the biggest attack dog in the field. Notice his dismissive "before Governor Pawlenty gave a speech" line.
The interview came right after Van Susteren's interview with Tim Pawlenty, and was thus, another good example of the Fox primary.
Pawlenty hits "isolationist" rivals
On Fox News last night, Tim Pawlenty continued positioning himself as the 2012 field's leading foreign policy hawk.
PAWLENTY: There's a big split in the Republican Party right now about whether we are going to move towards retrenchment, withdrawal, and isolationism. That's the voices you hear on the other side of that debate, or my perspective and some others, which is America has an exceptional leadership role in the world as it relates to our own security, as it relates to the security interests of our allies. And in the wake of events like the Arab spring, this is no time to shrink. We should step for. I gladly engage that debate within the Republican Party and beyond.
VAN SUSTEREN: Who are you talking, though? Is Senator Santorum someone you think that is doing this shrinking from challenges of American leadership and being an isolationist? Is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Congresswoman Bachmann, are they doing that? Are they isolationists?
PAWLENTY: I can't speak to Senator Santorum's views. But if you listen to the debate recently -- the debate on another news channel as well as some of the other news reports, clearly there are several candidates for president and several, other leading voices in the party beyond that in Washington, arguing for going further than the president in terms of an accelerated withdrawal, arguing that we have no business, and he has no authority in Libya, arguing that we should do nothing in Syria, arguing that we should not have any role currently in Iraq and beyond.
I have a very different view of that, and I'll be happy to debate that issue with anybody who has a different view.
Even though Pawlenty has harsh words for his rivals, he fails to mention them by name, and that omission will likely resurrect some concern about his toughness -- exemplified by his decision to not attack Mitt Romney on health care in the second presidential debate.
Pawlenty's rival, Jon Huntsman, has been the most dovish of the leading '12 candidates, arguing that President Obama's troop withdrawal in Afghanistan isn't quick enough, and, recently, Michele Bachmann has also been highly critical of U.S. foreign intervention.
Perry climbs to second
A new Fox poll of likely GOP primary voters shows Rick Perry shooting up to second in the GOP nomination fight.
1. Mitt Romney 18%
2. Rick Perry 13%
3. Michele Bachmann 11%
4. Rudy Giuliani 10%
5. Sarah Palin 8%
6. Ron Paul 7%
7. Herman Cain 5%
8. Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, and Jon Huntsman 3%
11. Rick Santorum 2%
12. Gary Johnson 1%
To get a sense of how quickly Perry's risen, Fox didn't even list him in its poll at the beginning of June.
But with his entrance, Sarah Palin has fallen 4% and Mitt Romney 5%.
Without Sarah Palin in the race, nothing changes, except the leaders get a few extra percentage points. Same thing if Rudy Giuliani doesn't run.
As Nate Silver points out, this is now two polls, released yesterday, with Perry notching second place and 13%. The other is a McClatchy/Marist joint.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Evening eats
a. Sarah Palin's go-to-guy that she doesn't go to (yet) in Iowa.
b. John McCain praises Tim Pawlenty's foreign policy.
c. Jon Huntmsan snags a political director for his SC campaign.
d. Matt Lewis talks about his new Palin book.
e. Rick Perry is already polling impressively with the tea party.
f. Palin to Iowa viewers about The Undefeated: "The movie is not about me."
Breitbart thinks Palin will run
Andrew Breitbart, who met Sarah Palin for the first time last night in Iowa, told CBS today that he thinks she'll jump into the race.
While he explicitly said he was not endorsing Palin, he did describe himself as a "defender" of the polarizing politician.
"She represents something defiant and fearless and righteous and decent."
DeMint gets Romney
The Hill's Mike O'Brien reports that Mitt Romney has decided to sign Jim DeMint's "Cut, cap, and balance" pledge, which the influential senator is using as a kind of litmus test.
Romney's name means that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is the only announced presidential candidate to have not signed it aside from former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R), who's sworn off all pledges.
So if everyone signs a pledge, that essentially means that it loses all its electoral usefulness, right?
Palin: Why do they hate me so much?
Sarah Palin talked to The Hollywood Reporter yesterday after the premiere of the pro-her film, The Undefeated, which features a montage of celebrities making vile jokes about her.
"This is the first that I've seen much of that. It kind of takes you back. It makes you want to reach out to some of these folks and say, 'What's your problem? And what was the problem? And what is the problem?'
.... what would make someone be so full of hate?"
[Hat tip: Drudge]
Breitbart impressed after meeting with Palin
Conservative mogul, Andrew Breitbart, tweeted this afternoon:
1st time I spent time w Palins last night. Divide between real @SarahPalinUSA & media's distorted persona is more grotesque than I thought.
Both Breitbart and Palin were in Iowa for the premiere of the pro-Palin film, The Undefeated.
Breitbart, a hugely influential conservative voice, plugged an intriguing ticket in April.
"The idea of an Allen West/Herman Cain all-black conservative ticket would titillate me to the point of secretions coming out of every orifice.
It would so upset the politically correct, culturally Marxist paradigm in academia and they’d have to start attacking… And I think it would cause the American people to see how unserious the left is when it comes to issues of claiming to represent the best interests of minorities. They use minorities in order to divide and conquer in this country, and I would not just want an all-black ticket.
I would like an all-minority, all-female; and let’s get rid of all the white eunuchs like John McCain that would craft an entire political career in the latter part of the 20th century and the first part of the 21st century trying to appease the media left."
Muddled in Texas
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows most major '12 GOP prospects beating Barack Obama in Texas -- except for Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, and home-state governor Rick Perry.
But there's a caveat to all these numbers.
a. Mitt Romney 50% Barack Obama 42%
b. Ron Paul 45% Barack Obama 40%
c. Michele Bachmann 47% Barack Obama 44%
d. Tim Pawlenty 44% Barack Obama 43%
e. Barack Obama 43% Herman Cain 43%
f. Barack Obama 46% Sarah Palin 44%
g. Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 45%
Favorable Ratings:
a. Michele Bachmann 39%/36% for +3%.
b. Mitt Romney 37%/43% for -6%.
c. Herman Cain 27%/33% for -6%.
d. Tim Pawlenty 22%/37% for -15%.
e. Ron Paul 30%/46% for -16%.
f. Sarah Palin 37%/55% for -18%.
Rick Perry's approval rating is 43%/52% for -9%, while Barack Obama's is 42%/55% for -13%.
Now, the caveat isn't that PPP is a Democratic pollster. Regardless of ideology, they have a terrific record.
The big caveat is that the Republican candidates aren't consolidating the GOP vote the way Obama is the Democratic vote. Of course, that phenomenon could continue, but it's likely to disappear in the heat of a general election.
For example, Tim Pawlenty only wins 77% of John McCain's '08 voters, while Barack Obama retains 90% of his Dem support. Is it really realistic to assume that T-Paw would lose 23% of McCain voters?
And it's like that for most '12ers. T-Paw, Palin, Ron Paul, and Rick Perry all fail to crack 80% of McCain voters.
Only Romney (85%) and Bachmann (81%) cross the 80% mark, and not coincidentally, they're the strongest against Obama, overall.
Meanwhile, in every matchup, Obama keeps upwards of 90% of his 2008 vote, which means he's pretty much reached his ceiling in the state and would have to start picking off McCain supporters to move up.
So consume this poll with caution.
Probably the only takeaway is that Romney polls better than any other Republican in the state, which is interesting considering that he doesn't look like your stereotypical Texas Republican.
Huntsman launches rapid response site
Jon Huntsman's presidential campaign unveiled a website today, designed to combat criticism of the presidential candidate.
So far, The Reality Room features a number of "reality check" blog posts, a searchable database, and social media tools.
The Gingrich Fantasy?
The Weekly Standard's Andrew Ferguson details some of the conventional wisdom before reading twenty-one of Newt Gingrich's books.
Gingrich’s status as an intellectual is accepted as an article of faith — something that everybody just assumes to be true, like man-made climate change or Barack Obama’s stratospheric I.Q. Senator Tom Coburn, the Oklahoma Republican, says Gingrich is “undoubtedly the smartest man I’ve ever met.”
Cokie Roberts calls him “a big thinker.” Without irony the Democratic consultant Paul Begala praises his “intellectual heft” and Howard Dean his “intellectual leadership.” Ted Nugent says Gingrich is probably the “smartest guy out there.”
The caveat, jumping from all those books' pages?
Gingrich’s vagueness was always a problem, but the books show something more: a near-total lack of interest in the political implementation of his grand ideas — a lack of interest, finally, in politics at its most mundane and consequential level.
Romney meeting with senators in DC
Mitt Romney's in Washington today for several end-of-quarter fundraising events and meetings on Capitol Hill. It's already been reported that Utah Sen. Mike Lee is one of the legislators getting face time with Romney, and Kasie Hunt tells us that Lee's fellow Utahan, Orrin Hatch, just told reporters he's in on the fun, too.
A Romney source says five other senators are meeting with the former governor: Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran and Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker.
Bachmann rejects notion of Palin feud
Michele Bachmann, responding to a question in South Carolina about a rumored feud between her and Sarah Palin.
"They [the media] want to see two girls come together and have a mud wrestling fight, and I am not going to give that to them."
Axelrod: Romney is the favorite
CBS News on David Axelrod's chat last night at the Aspen Institute's Ideas Festival in Colorado.
Referring to Romney as the "favorite," Axelrod, who is now working on President Obama's re-election campaign, said he could see a scenario in which Bachmann wins the Iowa primary, Romney wins the New Hampshire primary and the two run-off for the nomination.
Unlike 2008, he sees two new primaries within the Republican Party-- the Tea Party's and, what he calls, the "Martini Party's."
.... Axelrod said candidates like Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain are vying for Tea Party support, while Romney holds court within the Martini Party -- though joked he couldn't confirm that the Mormon has ever drank a martini.
[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]
New Jersey sours on Christie
A new Bloomberg poll shows that 39% of New Jersey residents would "definitely" or "probably" vote to reelect Chris Christie, while 51% say they definitely or probably wouldn't.
a. 74% of Republicans favor him for reelection, 11% of Democrats, and 41% of independents.
b. 45% say their opinion of him has gotten worse since he assumed office. 25% say their opinion of him has gotten better.
c. His problem? New Jersey's a blue state that doesn't take kindly to his budgets or fight with public unions.
Fifty-eight percent of New Jersey residents disagreed with Christie’s decision not to extend a surcharge on the state’s highest-earning taxpayers, a measure that was revived for a vote this week by the Democratic-led Legislature.
.... “Teachers I know got laid off because of him,” Fred Lavin, 61, a poll respondent from Toms River who is troubleshooter for an electronics company, said in a June 24 telephone interview. “He’s not in favor of the average working person.”
Video: Palin greeting supporters in Iowa
Here's Sarah Palin in Iowa yesterday, before the premiere of the pro-her film, The Undefeated.
[Hat tip: Gateway Pundit]
Bristol Palin: Bachmann dresses like my mom!
Bristol Palin chats with PopEater about Michele Bachmann.
"I think she dresses a lot like my mom," Bristol tells me. "But a lot, a lot of women have done that the last few years. I do think it's odd, you know, seeing people with red blazers with their hair up with glasses."
Bristol added a giggle before continuing her thought about Bachmann, a Congresswoman from Minnessota.
"I don't know if she's wearing glasses but you want to be hummmm, do you think that people don't notice you're dressing like my mom?"
There's been quite a bit of speculation (e.g. here, here and here) that Palin and Bachmann have a little rivalry going on, with speculation that the former Alaska gov might be a little annoyed by Bachmann's sudden rise as tea party queen, and Bachmann's own campaign strategist knocking Palin for resigning from her job.
Bristol's comments might add to that perception.
Pawlenty's straw poll bet
Jill Lawrence reports that Tim Pawlenty is betting a lot on the August 13 Ames, Iowa straw poll.
Pawlenty has budgeted $1.75 million for the straw poll, according to a Republican consultant familiar with the Pawlenty campaign.
That’s a major commitment, comparable to what George W. Bush and Steve Forbes spent in 1999 to place first and second ($1.1 million and $1.9 million, respectively, in today’s dollars).
The money could help, if it was there to spend. “They clearly don’t have it. So in the end I’m not sure how they’re going to implement their straw-poll strategy,” the consultant said.
“I know so many of the vendors who aren’t getting paid. They are holding back so many bills.” And that’s on top of a Washington Post report last week that several aides are working without pay.
Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant called the information about the straw poll “inaccurate,” but declined to specify if he means the campaign’s straw-poll budget or whether there’s money to back it up.
Yesterday, Pawlenty downgraded expectations, telling an Iowa radio station that he didn't need to win the straw poll but merely "do well and show some progress."
Poll: Romney fares best against Obama
A new McClatchy/Marist poll shows Barack Obama felling all major '12 GOP prospects, although 43% of voters say they'd definitely vote against the POTUS.
a. Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 42%
b. Barack Obama 48% Rudy Giuliani 41%
c. Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 39%
d. Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 37%
e. Barack Obama 47% Tim Pawlenty 33%
f. Barack Obama 56% Sarah Palin 30%
Meanwhile, a 2012 GOP primary remains close.
1. Mitt Romney 19%
2. Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani 13%
4. Sarah Palin 11%
5. Michele Bachmann 8%
6. Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Herman Cain 5%
Check out Rick Perry. He's right up there with candidates who've been on the national stage much longer -- Romney, Rudy, and Palin.
Gingrich "recovering" from consultant exodus
On Greta Van Susteren's show last night, Newt Gingrich once again threw his former campaign staff under the bus.
"It's going much better. We've actually been gradually recovering from the consultants who left us in debt.
Since they've been gone, we've been raising more money than we've been spending."
Ever since the mass exodus of top campaign staff from Gingrich's campaign in early June, the former Speaker of the House has accused the departed of financial malfeasance and archaic campaign models.
Palin: Bristol wrong about presidential decision
Last night, Sarah Palin gently chided her daughter, Bristol, for telling Fox News that her mom had made a decision on a presidential run.
"I texted Bristol.
I said 'Honey, what did you say this morning on some news program?'
And she said, 'Oh, Mom, you gotta watch the interview. You know how they take everything out of context.'
I said, 'You remember, Bristol, what we talk about on the fishing boat stays on the fishing boat.'
I don't know what she said -- she said that I have to watch it myself. So I don't know what she said, but I'm still thinking about.
.... I am still thinking about the decision, and a lot goes into such a life-changing, relatively earth-shattering type of decision and still thinking about it."
Here are Bristol's comments about a presidential run yesterday that she claimed were taken "out of context".
"You know, she definitely knows. We talked about it before, but some things just need to say in the family."
Bachmann gaining in New Hampshire
A new Suffolk University poll shows Michele Bachmann making big strides in New Hampshire, climbing to second in the 2012 primary.
1. Mitt Romney 36%
2. Michele Bachmann 11%
3. Ron Paul 8%
4. Rudy Giuliani 5%
5. Jon Huntsman and Sarah Palin 4%
7. Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum 1%
The poll confirms the notion that Bachmann is fast becoming the tea party alternative to Mitt Romney.
It also confirms the dark clouds over Tim Pawlenty's campaign, who's looking more like Phil Gramm everyday. He's made all the right steps, but is still moving backward.
Sarah Palin's showing is bad, considering Bachmann nearly triples her. But I'm betting the day Palin announced, she'd immediately make up the difference.
Mitt Romney continues to hold a large lead that will inevitably be further cut into. That's unfortunate for him, since it will generate buzz that he's fading, even though tightening is inevitable and not necessarily a reflection of a candidate.
Palin: would give "110 percent" to Iowa
RCP's Scott Conroy:
Sarah Palin on Tuesday said that she would fully commit to the traditional process leading up to the Iowa caucuses, if she does through her hat in the ring.
"110 percent," Palin told RealClearPolitics before entering the premiere of a documentary that extols her accomplishments in office.
"Doing as much as I can to garner that support. It's necessary."
There've been questions about whether Palin would be willing to do the small-scale, retail politics that Iowans demand, but that always ignored the fact that she really likes doing retail.
She was in Iowa yesterday to attend the opening of the pro-her film, The Undefeated.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Evening eats
a. Sarah Palin and Barack Obama were in Iowa today.
b. Ron Paul has a private plane this time.
c. Herman Cain says he actually is competing in New Hampshire.
d. Newt Gingrich doesn't think his entire staff leaving is particularly newsworthy.
e. Ron Paul wants to write Chapter 11 in U.S. history books.
f. Sarah and Bristol Palin will hit up the mall together.
g. Newt picks up a few Huck backers.
h. Mitt Romney hammers China.
i. Sarah Palin stops by an Iowa Panera.
Bachmann's "titanium spine" in New Hampshire
Philip Rucker reports on Michele Bachmann's trip to New Hampshire today, where she spoke to 200 supporters on a supporter's front lawn.
Bachmann unleashed her now-familiar attacks on President Obama — over health care, the federal bureaucracy and, yes, teleprompters — but also sought to offer herself as a substantive and credentialed woman who can withstand the scrutiny she has begun to face as a leading Republican contender.
“By the way, this is a titanium spine,” the Minnesota congresswoman said, reaching to touch her back.
“We need a bold president because we’re in an era where we have to do big things, not small things."
Report: Huntsmans huddled on McCain, Romney endorsements
The Daily Beast's McKay Coppins and David Graham have a great look at the role Jon Huntsman, Sr. has played in his son's political career.
It includes this fascinating anecdote about the father and son's famous decision to endorse competing candidates in '08.
Before the 2008 presidential primaries, for example, according to a source close to the family, father and son got together and discussed endorsement strategies.
They determined that Huntsman Jr. would support John McCain—who was more likely to give him a prominent cabinet post if he won—while Huntsman Sr. would endorse Utah favorite Mitt Romney so as to maintain good relations with the state’s numerous Romney-ites.
The apparent disagreement made headlines at the time but, the source says, “it was all calculated.”
Bachmann, Cain lead in positive intensity
Gallup releases a new poll, showing Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain sporting the highest "positive intensity" scores of any major '12 prospects.
Positive intensity is the gap between "strongly favorable" and "strongly unfavorable" views of the respective candidates.
From the table below, you can see that even though Sarah Palin has the highest name recognition, it doesn't necessarily translate to the highest positive intensity, since there's a significant number of GOP voters who view her very unfavorably.
Bringing up the rear are Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman -- two candidates who've struggled badly out of the gate.
Dave Weigel notes that as Republicans have gotten better acquainted with Huntsman, his positive intensity score has dropped.
That mirrors another poll, released last week, that showed his name recognition improving but his net favorability falling. Solution? More motocross ads!
Romney, Huntsman in New Hampshire for 4th of July
Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman will face off with competing New Hampshire events on the Fourth of July.
Romney will march in parades in Laconia and Amherst, and then he’ll stop by the Andover town green. Huntsman will also be in the state to celebrate the holiday, consultant John Weaver said.
.... It’s the first time the pair will hold overlapping events in the first-in-the-nation primary state, where both candidates are staking their presidential hopes.
A poll last month showed Romney leading his next closest challengers, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, by 32%.
Petty wants Bachmann to stop using song
The Raw Story reports that rocker Tom Petty has issued a cease and desist letter, telling Michele Bachmann to, well, cease and desist from using his song, "American Girl."
Bachmann used the song at her presidential kick-off in Iowa yesterday.
[Hat tip: Maggie Haberman]
Bachmann leads in Oregon, Montana
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Michele Bachmann has a small lead over the current GOP presidential field in Oregon and Montana.
This is the first time that Bachmann has ever led in a PPP state survey, and is an example of her growing momentum, illustrated by last week's second place showing in Iowa, as well.
Oregon:
1. Michele Bachmann 29%
2. Mitt Romney 28%
3. Ron Paul 10%
4. Newt Gingrich 9%
5. Herman Cain 7%
6. Tim Pawlenty 6%
7. Jon Huntsman 2%
Montana:
1. Michele Bachmann 25%
2. Mitt Romney 22%
3. Newt Gingrich 11%
4. Ron Paul 10%
5. Tim Pawlenty 9%
6. Herman Cain 8%
7. Huntsman 4%
Pollster Tom Jensen notes, though, that it's a very different race if Sarah Palin jumps in -- one that Mitt Romney would welcome.
Oregon provides a good example of why Romney should probably want Palin to run, in order to split up the vote of the far right.
With Palin included there he gets 28% to 18% for Bachmann, 16% for Palin, 9% for Paul, 8% for Cain, 6% for Gingrich and Pawlenty, and 0% for Huntsman.
Without Palin included Bachmann picks up 11 points with Romney staying right in place.
There's an argument that Palin's entry is the best possible thing that could happen to Romney's prospects over the next few months.
Pawlenty: Libya effort doesn't need congressional authorization
Tim Pawlenty said Tuesday that the War Powers Act "does not apply" to the U.S. intervention in Libya, but that he would consult with Congress anyway if he launched the mission as president.
During a question-and-answer session following a speech on foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Pawlenty said that he would confer with members of Congress "as a courtesy and gesture of respect," but that he does not believe congressional authorization would be required for such a mission.
Pawlenty has established himself as the leading hawk in the '12 field and delivered a speech today urging the Republican field to avoid its growing isolationism.
Ex-Bachmann chief of staff picks Pawlenty
It's long been known that Ron Carey, a former chief of staff to Michele Bachmann, has been critical of the congresswoman.
But today, he penned an absolutely brutal missive against her.
The Bachmann campaign and congressional offices I inherited were wildly out of control.
Stacks upon stacks of unopened contributions filled the campaign office while thousands of communications from citizens waited for an answer. If she is unable, or unwilling, to handle the basic duties of a campaign or congressional office, how could she possibly manage the magnitude of the presidency?
That's especially noteworthy, considering that it seems to fit the idea that she's a little out-of-control and undisciplined.
Carey also gives Tim Pawlenty a significant pat on the back.
I find myself agreeing with Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann on 99 percent of the issues, but the similarities end there.
.... I know Tim Pawlenty very well. He is a family man filled with faith and conservative convictions proven in action. He will make a great president.
Carey was her chief of staff for just 5 months (Feb 2010-July 2010), but has declined to give any reason for his abrupt resignation.
[Hat tip: Rachel Weiner]
Club for Growth praises "pro-growth" Bachmann
The conservative Club for Growth releases its presidential white paper on Michele Bachmann.
The reports grade each candidate on taxes, spending, free trade, regulation, entitlement reform, school choice, tort reform, political free speech, and endorsements.
The Club's conclusion on Bachmann?
With very few exceptions, Congresswoman Bachmann has supported pro-growth policies throughout her career. She especially deserves praise for her consistent defense of school choice. After reviewing her record, we are confident that Congresswoman Bachmann would be a pro-growth President.
This is, by far, the strongest vote of confidence the conservative group has granted a candidate.
Previously, it's called Jon Huntsman's record on spending "inexcusable", Mitt Romney a "technocrat", Rick Santorum weak on spending, Newt Gingrich too fond of tinkering with the free market, and Herman Cain wrong on TARP.
Read Jon Huntsman's report, Mitt Romney's report, Rick Santorum's report; Newt Gingrich's report; Tim Pawlenty's report, and Herman Cain's report.
Bristol: My mom knows if she'll run
On Fox & Friends this morning, Bristol Palin said her mom has made a decision on whether she'll run for president, but was mum on what it was.
"You know, she definitely knows. We talked about it before, but some things just need to say in the family."
She also added that she wanted her mom to run, despite the increased scrutiny.
If Palin has made up her mind about a run, doesn't she owe Fox News an answer? After all, the channel axed Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum when they indicated they were running.
Rick Perry a huge draw in Alabama
Rick Perry is turning into such a big draw for the Alabama Republican Party’s summer dinner that the state GOP may have to move the event to a larger venue, according to a senior party official.
The Texas governor is scheduled to address Alabama Republicans in Birmingham on August 12 – the eve of the Ames straw poll. The state GOP has sold out a 600-seat venue for Perry’s speech in about a week and a half, and now a 300-seat overflow tent is booked up, too. The event may move to a 2,000-seat location if officials feel confident they can fill it.
The only other '12 prospects you could imagine doing the same are Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Chris Christie.
Romney wants to push up Utah's primary
The Salt Lake Tribune reports that Mitt Romney's team is working to move up Utah's primary to early spring -- presumably, to help build early momentum.
If Utah’s primary were to move, it would not be allowed — under the Republican National Committee’s rules — to advance any earlier than the second week of March.
I don't think this is a great move for Romney. His Mormonism is already a political liability in a GOP primary and whatever small gains in delegates an early primary might provide would be offset by an attention-grabbing primary between the two Mormons -- Romney and Jon Huntsman.
And btw, in case you were wondering -- as of March, Romney was crushing Huntsman in a potential primary match in the state, 65%-16%.
[Hat tip: David Drucker]
Pawlenty grilled about Bachmann
On Morning Joe today, the crew asked Tim Pawlenty twice about Michele Bachmann's rise in both polls and buzz.
First, Pawlenty implicitly contrasted his executive record with her legislative record.
"I know Congresswoman Bachmann. I've campaigned for her. I've respected her over the years and have worked for her over the years.
.... Everybody brings something different to the table. One of the things I bring to the table is a record of executive leadership and results, so not just talking about these issues but actually getting them done. On taxes, on spending, on market-based health care reform, public employee pension reform and much more.
I think that's one of the things people are going to be interested -- have you actually done these things; not just talked about them.
And second, he just laughed when Joe Scarborough asked if it drives him "nuts" that Bachmann is leading him in polls.
Scarborough: Bachmann's Reaganesque response
On Morning Joe today, Joe Scarborough said that Michele Bachmann's response to Chris Wallace's "flake" question has been Reaganesque.
"For Chris Wallace to be asking 'Are you a flake' to somebody.... who not only got a law degree, but got an advanced, law degree from William & Marry -- that ain't nothing. And her job as a tax attorney.
It seems to me that Michele Bachmann is tearing an important page out of Ronald Reagan's playbook, which is when you're insulted and people call you "stupid", you don't do what Joe Biden did, like saying 'I graduated the top of my class', you don't get defensive.
You just hope, you just pray that you will be underestimated by the mainstream media. Reagan snuck up on them."
Bachmann rips "troubling" Romney on abortion
Michele Bachmann talks with the Christian Broadcasting News about Mitt Romney's refusal to sign the Susan B. Anthony list's pro-life pledge.
"I think particularly now, Governor Romney has stated that he is pro-life. I take him at his word, but he’s had some issues with that in his past, where he has taken various positions.
.... I think that the voters will have to take a look at this. I know for me, it’s very troubling."
Romney, who along with Herman Cain and former NM Gov. Gary Johnson, declined to sign the pledge, cited "overly broad" implications of the pledge.
“As much as I share the goals of the Susan B. Anthony List, its well-meaning pledge is overly broad and would have unintended consequences.
That is why I could not sign it. It is one thing to end federal funding for an organization like Planned Parenthood; it is entirely another to end all federal funding for thousands of hospitals across America. That is precisely what the pledge would demand and require of a president who signed it."
This represents Bachmann's harshest jab at Romney yet.
Last week, she took a more veiled-shot, telling a pro-life convention that now was "not the time for Republicans to put up a candidate who is weak on the issue [of abortion] and has a history of flip-flopping on the issue."
Key Cain staffers leave
Matt Murphy, who is Herman Cain's New Hampshire state director, has left the campaign.
The Union Leader reported that Murphy cited the Cain campaign’s refusal to mount a serious effort in the critical, first-in-the-nation primary state.
“There is no ill will toward Herman Cain,” Murphy reportedly told the paper. “There was a strategic difference and I left the campaign because of those differences. The differences involved the New Hampshire strategy and how much investment the campaign should put into New Hampshire.”
Jim Zeiler, the campaign's regional director, has also left the campaign, although it's not immediately clear why.
[Hat tip: The Fix]
Monday, June 27, 2011
Giuliani heads to New Hampshire
James Pindell reports that Rudy Giuliani will visit New Hampshire on July 14 to speak at the Seacoast Republican Women's luncheon.
It will be his 6th visit to the state since the '08 primary.
Last month, his adviser, Jake Menges, said that Rudy was eying a mid-July decision on another run.
[Hat tip: Byron Tau]
Palin plans quiet Iowa visit
RCP's Scott Conroy reports that Sarah Palin won't turn tomorrow's trip to the Iowa premiere of The Undefeated into a political meet-and-greet.
.... key players in Iowa Republican politics -- including state GOP Chairman Matt Strawn, Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition President Steve Scheffler and the office of Gov. Terry Branstad -- told RCP that Palin's camp had not reached out to them ahead of Tuesday's visit.
Steven K. Bannon, the filmmaker behind the documentary, said that his own lack of outreach to prominent Iowa Republicans had been by design and "in keeping with the populist undertones of the movie."
The atmosphere sounds pretty cool -- a 110 year-old organ will provide accompaniment in the Pella Opera House, which is running the film.
The Huggable Chris Christie
On Meet the Press yesterday, Chris Christie said he was "huggable and lovable."
Today, Morning Joe's Mika Brzezinski said "yes, I think he is"; then tested the proposition out.
Christie rips Obama's leadership
Chris Christie ripped Barack Obama this morning for being late to the game on budget talks, and for sending Joe Biden in as the White House's representative last week (emphasis added).
"He's [Obama's] failing. Now, it doesn't mean he can't turn it around, and he's getting in the room finally, which is good. Get Joe Biden out of the room. Put him in the room.
No offense to the vice-president, but I didn't send my lieutenant governor in to make the deal on pension and benefits.
They want to hear from the man or woman in charge."
The budget talks between Joe Biden and Republican leaders broke down last week, and today, Barack Obama is scheduled to meet with Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell about the issue.
Christie respects Cuomo's leadership on gay marriage
On Morning Joe today, Chris Christie said he disagreed with NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo on gay marriage, but was nevertheless impressed with his leadership on it.
"He and I don't agree on the gay marriage issue, but that's okay.
What I'm looking for is somebody who's a leader, and he believes in it [gay marriage], good! If you can convince the folks in your state and your legislature to do it.... [interrupted]"
Last week, Cuomo helped lead a bipartisan coalition in New York's state Legislature, legalizing gay marriage.
Christie's praise was part of a much more extended monologue on Cuomo's tenure, thus far.
"He gets in the room. He gets his hands dirty, and he gets it done.
He's not sitting back, waiting to say 'Oh, let's see how everybody comes on this, and let's see if I can find a little room for me to kind of wriggle in here.'
He sets the debate, he defines the debate, and then he compromises in the areas that he needs to compromise on.
So I think Governor Cuomo has done a great job...."
Bachmann is from Iowa
In her Waterloo, Iowa presidential announcement speech today, Michele Bachmann said the word "Waterloo" fifteen times and the word "Iowa" fourteen times.
A particularly funny clip, and of course, there's nothing wrong with playing to the audience. Everyone does it. It was just funnily glaring today.
Bachmann announces presidential bid
Michele Bachmann announced her presidential bid today in her home-town of Waterloo, Iowa.
The substantive portions of her speech were heavy on fiscal matters -- spending and the debt.
Surprisingly, she didn't spend much time dealing with social issues. Possibly, because her bona fides are so well-known that she doesn't need to persuade voters of them, and possibly because -- even in Iowa -- fiscal concerns are the top concerns right now.
The formal, soundbite moment when she jumps into the race.
And her appeal to all elements of the party, capped by a rousing identification with the tea party movement.
"It may have started small, but our voice is growing louder, our voice is growing stronger, and it's made up of Americans from all walks of life like a three-legged stool.
It's made up of peace through strength conservatives, and I am one of those. It is made up of fiscal conservatives, and I am one of those. It is made up of social conservatives, and I am one of those.
And it's made up of the tea party movement, and I am one of those."
It was pretty good speech -- well-written and well-delivered. She has a great sense of rhetorical timing.
A weekend Des Moines Register poll showed her just 1% behind Mitt Romney in Iowa.
Perry would run national campaign
Rick Perry's top political adviser, Dave Carney, tells National Journal that his boss wouldn't just focus on states with natural sympathies for his southern swagger and roots.
“You can’t just say, 'I am going to win South Carolina'; you have to try to be competitive everywhere,” Carney said. “This is not a two-state strategy. We [would] need to raise money to be in there for the long haul.
.... Small government, personal responsibility, and jobs would resonate with New Hampshire very well. I think Gov. Perry would be well-received in New Hampshire."
[Hat tip: Political Wire]
Bachmann carries momentum into announcement
This morning, Michele Bachmann will kick-off her presidential bid in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa.
And Republican strategist, Curt Anderson, sets the stage.
"The bad news for Bachmann is that she has to win Iowa.... Without it her campaign is over. The good news for Bachmann is that she can win Iowa."
From an empirical standpoint, the weekend's Des Moines Register sets the stage in its poll of likely caucus-goers.
1. Mitt Romney 23%
2. Michele Bachmann 22%
3. Herman Cain 10%
4. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 7%
6. Tim Pawlenty 6%
7. Rick Santorum 4%
8. Jon Huntsman 2%
SECOND choice (particularly important in a caucus dynamic like Iowa's).
1. Michele Bachmann 18%
2. Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul 12%
4. Mitt Romney and Herman Cain 10%
6. Newt Gingrich 5%
7. Rick Santorum 4%
8. Jon Huntsman 2%
A couple notes:
a. 62% would rather nominate a fiscal conservative than social conservative. In a way, that's surprising, since Iowa tends to be dominated by social cons. But, there might be some response bias in that question.
b. Check out Tim Pawlenty's strong showing as "second choice". I'm betting that many Romney supporters would jump ship to Pawlenty if Romney weren't in this thing.
c. As has been written all weekend, Michele Bachmann couldn't have more momentum heading into today's announcement.
Bachmann not accepting Chris Wallace's apology
Michele Bachmann still isn't happy that Fox News Sunday host, Chris Wallace, asked if she were a "flake" on Sunday.
"I think it's insulting to insinuate that a candidate for president is less than serious. I'm a very serious individual. I have a very strong background, a strong resume."
When pressed further on the matter, she answered:
"Those are the small issues. I'm focused on the big ones."
Here's Wallace on Sunday, asking her directly if she were a flake.
And here's his subsequent apology.
"I messed up. I'm sorry. I didn't mean any disrespect. I simply was trying to put an issue that was out there, directly to her, because some people do dismiss her as a flake.
Her answer was pretty strong, as she talked about her professional experience, her business experience, her political experience."
UPDATE: The Bachmann camp says Wallace never apologized directly to her.
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