a. Romney is still avoiding the debt debate like the plague.
b. Barack Obama is still avoiding the debt debate like the plague.
Btw, it's no coincidence that the leading presidential candidates (i.e. Obama and Romney) from both parties are staying as far away as they can from the debate.
c. Bachmann catches Romney in New Jersey, North Carolina.
d. Tim Pawlenty is headed to Florida?
e. RCP's Scott Conroy thinks Palin will run.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Evening eats
Ingraham rebukes Palin
Conservative talk show host, Laura Ingraham, called Sarah Palin out today for warning House Republicans about primary challenges if they back John Boehner's plan.
"I guess we're threatening, implicitly, explicitly, Paul Ryan, Col. Allen West, Mike Pence is gonna be out of the House of Representatives.
He'll be the governor of Indiana. Maybe we can run someone else as governor of Indiana, to run for the governorship, 'cause Pence is obviously a sellout. Can I have the whole list of sellouts? I need the list so I can make sure I understand who's going to get the primary challenge."
Then in the woah-est statement, she employed sarcasm to knock Palin's favorite method of communication -- Facebook.
"You can stand on that soapbox and it might make you feel good in the moment. It make might you feel good to put out these Facebook postings," she said.
"But in the end, does it actually advance your cause? And does it advance the cause of fiscal restraint, which I think we all have?"
This is a significant development, since I don't think Ingraham's ever had a bad word for Palin.
In fact, Palin delivered her famous charge that Obama is "hell-bent on weakening America" on Igraham's show, and frequently calls in for a chat.
For Ingraham, it's a real risk. Palin's followers like her; the tea party loves her, and now Ingraham supports Boehner.
Giuliani supports Boehner's plan
Rudy Giuliani comes out in favor of John Boehner's debt ceiling plan, joining Jon Huntsman to become only the second in the potential, presidential field to support it.
"I think the Boehner proposal is the best of the proposals that I’ve seen, not because it does everything that needs to be done — far from it — but because it’s the most practical thing that can get passed in the short period of time that we have.
“It makes real cuts -- of about a trillion dollars. It increases the debt ceiling.... it allows a review of that in eight, nine months, which is absolutely necessary because Republicans at least don’t trust the president to really make the cuts.”
Obama tanking in new polls
Barack Obama is tanking in new surveys from Gallup and the Pew Research Center.
Gallup has the president at a 40% approval rating -- his worst since becoming president. Most importantly, only 34% of independents think he's doing a good job.
Pew, meanwhile, has similarly ominous news for Obama.
As recently as May, he led a generic Republican by 11%. Now that lead has disappeared at 41%/40%, and again, independents are fleeing him.
39% of indies prefer the generic Republican; just 31% prefer Obama.
Peggy Noonan:
Nobody smiles when they talk about Mr. Obama.
There were people who loved George W. Bush when he was at his most unpopular, and they meant it and would say it. But people aren't that way about Mr. Obama. He has supporters and bundlers and contributors, he has voters, he may win. But his support is grim support. And surely this has implications.
Whitman: I'd accept position in Romney administration
Former California gubernatorial candidate, Meg Whitman, talks about her long-time friendship with Mitt Romney in a KCRA interview (watch here).
"I would do anything for Mitt, and he'll have to decide -- if he wins -- he'll have to decide how he wants to set up his Administration.
I'd be happy to do almost anything he wanted me to do."
Forbes speculates that she might be Romney's running mate. That's very unlikely. She's socially-liberal, and Romney's first task would be placating social conservatives who don't fully trust him.
Besides, the personal wealth behind the two would make the ticket far too easy to attack.
Pawlenty keeps spinning
Nick Ayers, campaign manager for Tim Pawlenty, on the Ames, Iowa straw poll.
“Moving one place is not real movement.... moving three to four places is real movement.”
This is a continuing spin from Team Pawlenty, which is using old, caucus polling as a baseline for the straw poll.
The purpose of confounding one for the other is to give the impression of movement when there is none.
For example, Pawlenty is expected to do no worse than 2nd or 3rd in the straw poll and, most recently, polled at 3rd in the caucuses, themselves.
But the campaign has continually used old, caucus poll results where T-Paw is lower so they can generate the impression of movement as he inevitably rises to the position he's been for awhile.
I've written more about this here and here.
Pawlenty pitches hockey jersey
For a $100 donation, you can get a "Pawlenty for President" hockey jersey with your personalized name and favorite number on the back (unless you're Michele Bachmann, in which case T-Paw will send you a Ray Finkle jersey).
[Hat tip: Kendra Marr]
McDonnell still very popular
VA Gov. Bob McDonnell continues to be one of the most popular in the country, checking in at +19% in Public Policy Polling's new survey.
a. 20% of those who supported Obama in 2008 approve of the job he's doing.
b. Women approve of him by +10%; men by a stellar +30%.
c. Independents approve of him by +20%.
d. 21% of blacks approve of the job he's doing.
All these numbers are why he a) continues to be seen as a prime vice-presidential selection and b) is getting courted by presidential contenders who want his endorsement.
Since he's been governor, he's spoken numerous times with Mitt Romney, dined with Tim Pawlenty, and met with Newt Gingrich.
And none other than that centrist, No-Labely paragon of moderation, Michael Bloomberg, held up him as a model governor earlier this year.
"He's steered Virginia through some very tough times, but he's done it by making decisions and pulling people together. They know where they stand with this governor of Virginia, and that's what you need to have in America."
Anti-immigration group: Bachmann is best
NumbersUSA, an organization dedicated to reducing the country's annual immigration rate to pre-1965 levels, scores the 2012 candidates on twelve hot-button issues.
Its conclusion? Michele Bachmann ranks best; Barack Obama worst.
Here are the scorecards for the rather stingy graders.
1. Michele Bachmann B-
2. Tim Pawlenty C+
3. Herman Cain C-
4. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin D
6. Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and Newt Gingrich D-
9. Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Ron Paul F
12. Barack Obama F-
[Hat tip: The Corner]
Huntsman's new nuance
Coral Davenport on Jon Huntsman's speech yesterday to the Environmental Protection's Theodore Roosevelt Banquet.
Before a diverse audience that included leading environmentalists, energy company executives, and representatives of the notorious Heartland Institute, a free-market organization that denies the validity of climate-change science, Huntsman presented himself as a Roosevelt Republican on the environment:
“Conservation is conservative. I’m not ashamed to be a conservationist,” he said. “I also think that science should drive the discussion on climate change.… Our natural and state parks can be a driver of … economic development and of diplomacy.”
Huntsman famously once supported cap-and-trade but reversed himself upon his decision to run for president.
Huntsman: Obama has blown biggest issue
Jon Huntsman sharpens his teeth against Barack Obama in an interview on Fox News.
"He's failed to deliver on the most important issue of our time, and that's the economy and that's the creation of jobs. We are flat-footed, and we are in neutral.
And for even reason, we ought to have more confidence in where this country is going. Nobody is putting capital expenditures into their business because they can't see around the bend. They can't see what health care reform is going to cost them, they can't see what financial services reform is going to cost them. We need to get the regulatory monkey off our back."
He's actually pretty good at delivering attacks.
His calm demeanor -- which hurts him when he's trying to be charismatic and inspiring -- makes him seem less partisan when going after the president.
Vid via Fox News.
Filmmaker bashes Palin's Republican critics
Stephen Bannon -- the director of the pro-Sarah Palin documentary, "The Undefeated" -- hits the conservative intelligentsia for not backing the former governor.
"Gov. Palin has never had anybody come to her defense.
President Bush, when he was attacked, had enormous establishment and institutional Republicans [backing him]. Some of the biggest attacks on Gov. Palin are every night on Fox News.
The Republican intelligentsia of [Charles] Krauthammer, William Kristol, David Brooks, David From [sic], and Karl Rove — it’s a constant drumbeat against Gov. Palin.
For as much as she’s done for the Tea Party victory, show me any establishment Republican who’s come out to defend her."
Bachmann's favorite Democrat is Truman
Michele Bachmann told reporters yesterday that her favorite Republican president was Abraham Lincoln, favorite president period was George Washington, and favorite Democratic president, Harry Truman.
Here's the interesting part, via First Read (ea):
"She said she admired [Truman] for becoming president without a college degree -- and for his support of the creation of Israel. Truman, she added, was her father’s favorite president."
The college degree comment fits right into her base of scrappy, middle-Americans.
Here's a note I've been saving for two years -- ever since reading David McCullough's biography of Truman.
Ready for it? Remember, this has been sitting on my metaphoric desk for two years, and I finally get to use it.
During Truman's race against Dewey, a man without an attributed name said:
"I kept reading about that Dewey fellow, and the more I read the more he reminded me of one of those slick ads trying to get money out of my pocket.
Now Harry Truman, running around and yipping and falling over his feet -- I had the feeling he could understand the fixes I get into."
Can you substitute Bachmann and Palin's names for Truman's, and does that bode well for them?
Is Romney the leader in social media?
Alex Salta says so, using fundraising, Facebook, and Twitter as metrics.
An important note is that Sarah Palin isn't included in the study, since she's not an announced candidate. Her Facebook presence dwarfs Romney's; she's at +3 million fans, while he barely tops a million.
As for Twitter, he's at 61,000 followers; she's roughly ten times higher -- at 614, 000. And it's safe to say that her Facebook notes and tweets have been far more influential than Romney's.
UPDATE: After I tweeted out that Palin was missing from the study, Romney spokesman, Eric Fehrnstrom, tweeted back:
No Ashton Kucher either.
Did he just compare Palin to Ashton Kutcher?
Huntsman, rock star
Here he is in D.C. yesterday, swarmed by Chinese tourists and Chinese-Americans before an interview on Fox.
Looks like he made it big without his band, Wizard, after all (although -- like the Pet Shop Boys -- his market is primarily overseas).
Vid via GretaWire.
DeMint will hang it up in 2016
Jim DeMint scuttles a presidential run and another Senate race.
NATIONAL JOURNAL: Any regrets about not getting into the presidential race?
DeMINT: No; it’s just not an ambition of mine.
NJ: What is your ambition?
DeMINT: My hope is to elect five or 10 more solid conservatives and go home and rock on my front porch.
NJ: This is your last term?
DeMINT: Yeah. It was not a campaign promise; but that is my plan, that the election last year was my last one. It has always been my plan not to serve more than two terms.
Of course, politicians' plans often change -- as John Boehner is banking on this weekend.
[Hat tip: AllahPundit]
Huntsman: Boehner bill is best available
Jon Huntsman explains why he's the only major, 2012 candidate supporting John Boehner's debt ceiling bill, so far.
"I think the Boehner bill is the only act in town. I think it's sound, given every other alternative -- or lack of alternative. It cuts. It allows us to meet our obligations, and most importantly, it begins to address entitlements and something as important as a balanced budget amendment that, as governor, I had to use.... I think it would be terribly important for this country.
And it also envisions looking at a competitive tax code longer-term, and I think that's terribly important for our overall competitiveness in the country. So the Boehner plan gets us short-term to be short of where we need to be, but I think these bigger issues that are going to be terribly important for our overall competitiveness -- it gets them queued up so that we can begin discussing them seriously."
Huntsman: Romney cowering on debt debate
In an interview on Fox News airing last night, Jon Huntsman rebuked Mitt Romney for failing to take a clear position on John Boehner's plan.
HUNTSMAN: The president has shown no leadership. He doesn't have a plan on the table. My opponents in the race haven't even come up with what they support.
VAN SUSTEREN: Like Governor Romney? I know you made a comment about him.
HUNTSMAN: It's true. You've got to stand up. This is a time when leadership matters, and you've got to stand up and voice where you are. We are kind of at the 11th hour. This is crunch time, and this isn't academics. This isn't theory. This is the real world.
Romney has been criticized by both Democrats and Republicans who note that he hasn't embraced or rejected Boehner's compromise.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Evening eats
a. Mitt Romney is awfully quiet on Boehner's plan.
b. Herman Cain has quite a meeting at a mosque.
c. Mary Pawlenty will focus on New Hampshire, while Tim's in Iowa.
d. Erick Erickson strikes Santorum from the list of candidates.
e. Bob McDonnell endorses Boehner's plan.
Palin warns GOP freshmen of challenge
Sarah Palin, in a bruising warning to House Republicans who are wavering and undecided on John Boehner's debt plan.
All my best to you, GOP Freshmen, from up here in the Last Frontier.
Sincerely,
Sarah Palin
P.S. Everyone I talk to still believes in contested primaries.
Palin, of course, opposes Boehner's plan.
Read the rest of her entry, which consists nearly entirely of an entreaty she made to incoming GOP freshmen soon after they were elected.
Bachmann dismisses debt ceiling concerns
Michele Bachmann, at the National Press Club today -- defiant in her opposition to raising the debt ceiling.
"I do not believe for one moment that we will lose the full faith and credit of the United States."
Sarah Palin has been similarly dismissive of warnings that failing to raise the ceiling will cause significant upheaval.
On Tuesday, she said:
"This August 2 deadline is looming, but it's not Armageddon, it's not life-or-death."
And earlier this month...
"I'm still not one to buy into this notion that we must incur more debt, that we must increase the debt ceiling by August 2; otherwise, there will be catastrophe."
Obviously, the more skittish you are about the "default", the more you'll be interested in compromising and making a deal. The less worried, the more intransigent.
Bachmann's celebrity eclipses brother's
Michele Bachmann's brother, Gary Amble, is a weatherman in Kansas City, where weathermen are pretty big, local deals.
But he tells KCTV:
"Pretty much most of my adult life, I would run into people, and they would know who I am. Now I run into people and they say 'Hey, I know your sister.'
That's what's kind of weird."
Mediaite has another part of the video here -- this clip is just a web exclusive.
Perry favors federal marriage amendment
Rick Perry tells The Family Research Council's Tony Perkins that he supports the federal marriage amendment because he doesn't trust activist judges to uphold the 10th.
"To not pass the federal marriage amendment would impinge on Texas and other states not to have marriage forced upon them."
So in other words, you uphold a states' right to self-determination by taking it away. Doesn't make a ton of sense.
He courted controversy last week by saying he was "fine" with New York's new gay marriage law because states had a right to make those decisions.
Perry's chat about the federal marriage amendment today is likely to pacify social conservatives, who were getting nervous about his states rights approach to things like medicinal marijuana and even abortion. Should we wait for clarification?
Johnson in the '50's
Gary Johnson has had a rough go of it -- even from the National Press Club.
Pic via Peter Hamby.
2012 primary: Romney leads nearly everywhere
A new Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney leading all potential 2012 challengers in every region of the country, except for the South, where Rick Perry holds a large lead.
The crux of the poll?
Perry is doing well, but not well enough right now to win. He's tied for last in the West, is 3rd in the Midwest, and 3rd in the East.
More importantly, he's tied in two of those regions with Sarah Palin.
If both Perry and Palin run, there's just not enough room for them to overcome Romney. One has to eventually crowd out the other to take Romney down.
Bachmann performs well, but Palin and Perry are in a better position right now, because neither has declared.
Chris Christie hospitalized
He was taken to the Somerset Medical Center "out of an abundance of caution" after having difficulty breathing.
He's suffered from asthma in the past.
Rick Perry might participate in Iowa debate
If he goes, would an announcement precede it?
Rick Perry has put out feelers on the possibility of participating in the August 11 Fox News Debate in Ames.
Two sources in Perry's camp said the governor hasn't indicated to debate sponsor Fox News that he will participate.... But the conversations between Perry's camp and debate organizers suggest that Perry at least considered jumping in earlier, and that his strategy and timing have been very much in flux.
Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman are probably praying he doesn't show up -- they need the extra time and attention to make their run at Romney.
Perry: Conservatives want me to run
Rick Perry, to the New Hampshire Union-Leader:
"When I ask whether there is room for a full-throated, unapologetic fiscal conservative to get into this race, the answer has come back almost 100 percent, ‘Yes, there is'.”
Mitch Daniels backs Boehner
Mitch Daniels, who might have been the '12 field's most keen critic of the debt and deficit, sends out a statement, backing John Boehner's proposal on the debt ceiling.
“I hope the Indiana Congressional Delegation will support Speaker Boehner’s proposal. The terrifying, nation-threatening debt levels caused by past and present overspending and future overpromising will not be solved by any one action or in any one year.
But the Boehner plan begins in the right place, with real spending restraint and would show Americans and world markets that we do not intend to commit financial suicide. I hope Congress passes it and then begins work immediately on step two of our long march back to national solvency and economic prosperity."
Last year, Daniels famously called for a truce on social issues to help resolve economic ones, and consistently issued more dire warnings about the debt than any other '12 candidate.
Check him out in January.
"I believe the American experiment is in mortal peril because of the debt we have coming….
This is more frightening than even the Soviet nuclear threat, which would have been more horrible.
If we go broke, we’ll still be alive, but the probability was so small.
In this case, the damage, the catastrophe, will be very, very severe, and the probability – I mean, and it’s inexorable."
So his decision to get behind Boehner's proposal says a lot.
A bootless Perry?
New York Magazine wonders whether part of Rick Perry's appeal is permanently damaged after fairly major surgery on his back.
The procedure was planned but apparently dismissed as minor, until reporters noticed that he'd traded in his signature cowboy boots for black orthopedic sneakers.
.... Perry's aides have pointed out that the governor hasn't slowed his schedule at all post-surgery; so what if he wants to rock some sweet all-black kicks?
Besides boots, horses have long been a crucial part of a politician's diet.
Here's Sarah Palin -- at the Reagan Ranch -- via Big Government.
Here's Mitt Romney -- also riding.
Meg Whitman, during her campaign for governor of California.
Rick Perry firing a gun, which is sort of the same thing as riding a horse.
And the one they're all copying.
Kasich "not really engaged" on endorsing
The Columbus Morning Call on Mitt Romney's trip to Ohio yesterday.
When asked, Gov. John Kasich said he's “not really engaged” in the matter of endorsing a candidate. “I like Romney a lot,” Kasich added. “The best thing about Mitt Romney is that he's been a problem-solver.”
If he seems a little disaffected about the whole thing, it might be because his favorite candidate, Haley Barbour, decided not to become one.
Or it could be because only 35% of Ohions endorse the job he's doing as governor, and he's more preoccupied with that.
[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]
Bachmann warns Obama of becoming dictator
Michele Bachmann tells CNN that if Barack Obama uses the 14th Amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling, he'd, effectively, be acting as a dictator.
"Congress has the power to lay and collect taxes. It's Congress that does the spending.
The president is prohibited to do that. If he had the power to do that he would effectively be a dictator.
There would be no reason for Congress to even come into Washington, D.C."
[Hat tip: Mike O'Brien]
Perry invokes states' rights on abortion
ABC's Arlette Saenz reports:
Rick Perry categorized abortion as a states’ rights issue today, saying that if Roe v. Wade was overturned, it should be up to the states to decide the legality of the procedure.
“You either have to believe in the 10th Amendment or you don’t,” Perry told reporters after a bill signing in Houston. “You can’t believe in the 10th Amendment for a few issues and then [for] something that doesn’t suit you say, 'We’d rather not have states decide that.'”
That's another in a series of eye-raising statements from Perry.
He provoked controversy last week when he said New York's new gay marriage law was "fine" with him, thanks to 10th Amendment stuff.
And late, last year, he said he was in favor of states having the right to legalize marijuana.
To be clear, Perry is pro-life and against gay marriage, but his states' right approach is bound cause problems among evangelical leaders, who've, so far, been open and even very encouraging about a run.
[Hat tip: The Fix]
Romney, Obama on Martha's Vineyard same day
The Boston Herald reports that Mitt Romney will be in Martha's Vineyard for a fancy fundraiser on August 27 -- the same day that Barack Obama alights himself there for a vacation.
Romney’s Vineyard fundraiser is in Edgartown — on the opposite side of the island from Obama’s expected Chilmark pad. Obama and his family have stayed in the 28-acre Blue Heron Farm the past two summers when they’ve vacationed on the island.
The fundraiser is $2,500 per person.
Gingrich keeps praising Clinton
While campaigning in Georgia yesterday, Newt Gingrich weighed in on the debt ceiling debate.
"I look back on negotiating with President Clinton, and I'm amazed at the rigidity President Obama has shown.
.... President Clinton, although we disagreed deeply, he understood we wanted to get things done. He accepted certain things I don't think President Obama is willing to accept."
This at least the second time this week that Gingrich has praised Clinton. He told the Boston Herald earlier this week.
"There's no comparison between Obama and [former President Bill] Clinton. Obama's a very rigid, ideologically driven elitist. Clinton was a very practical, Arkansas, everyday politician who had worked very hard to move his party to the center."
Gingrich's praise for Clinton is an oft-repeated phenomenon over the past, few years, and despite their reputation as vindictive foes in the 1990's, they were close -- partially because each seemed to understand the other's strengths and weaknesses.
From an Esquire piece.
Gingrich remembers their peculiar bond to this day. "Clinton and I used to talk like it was a graduate-school session," he says. "We both like books, we both like ideas, we both like exploring language and exploring concepts and trying to find solutions."
And of course, both have had adultery issues that often seem to be borne from the feeling that they lie above the law.
They also share an ability to rationalize their behavior -- Clinton never really owned up to his faults when apologizing (until it became politically-necessary) and Gingrich implied that he committed adultery because he loved America too much.
I'll leave you with a quote from Gingrich last year.
"One of the reasons that Barack Obama beat Senator Clinton for the Democratic nomination is that the Left has never fully forgiven Bill Clinton for having agreed with me."
Newt's preoccupation with Clinton almost seems wistful and nostalgic for a time when he was the undisputed leader of the GOP.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Evening eats
a. Jeb Bush wouldn't be a lock.
b. John Boehner is a headache for the '12ers.
c. Erick Erickson wars with Bill Kristol.
d. Tim Pawlenty will raise cash in Florida.
e. The 50 Most Beautiful people on Capitol Hill.
f. Poor fundamentals for Obama's reelection.
Palin to keynote Iowa tea party rally
As usual, RCP's Scott Conroy breaks big Sarah Palin news.
In the latest indication that her sights are still set on a presidential run, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Waukee, Iowa, on Sept. 3.
.... The outdoor rally on the first Saturday in September will take place at a field in Waukee, located just outside of Des Moines, and will be hosted by the Tea Party of America -- an Iowa-based political action committee that was founded in May.
The midday affair will be the new group's kickoff event and is sure to generate a large crowd and massive media attention.
Palin's path to the nomination gets much, much more difficult with Perry jumping in and Bachmann surging (Btw, you have to say "Bachmann surge" when writing about her these days. It's the biggest windfall for the word "surge" since Iraq or Afghanistan).
Here's the ironic thing. A lot of politicians say they don't base their decisions to run on whether others jump in. But almost everyone does.
Palin, meanwhile, has repeatedly said she'll make her decision based on who runs, but of all politicians, she's probably the one least likely to actually do that.
Michigan: Obama leads GOP challengers
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Barack Obama handily beating all leading '12 contenders, except for Mitt Romney, whom he leads by a smaller margin.
a. Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42%
b. Barack Obama 50% Rick Perry 35%
c. Barack Obama 53% Michele Bachmann 37%
d. Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 33%
e. Barack Obama 54% Sarah Palin 36%
A few take-aways:
1. Romney's more than competitive. He might be down by 5% in this poll, but in a July 19 poll by another firm, he led Obama by 5%.
Then there's this: Romney actually raised more money than Barack Obama did in Michigan last quarter.
Romney is obviously helped in the state by his family ties, but on balance, you'd have to say that Michigan would probably be a true toss-up if Romney were paired against Obama. For the other GOP candidates? Not so much.
2. Expect a bump for GOP candidates. I say this every time, but every '12er will perform better than this poll in the final analysis.
Why? Because so little consolidation has occurred on the GOP side.
For example, Rick Perry trails Obama by 15% but partly because he only wins 72% of McCain's vote. Palin only wins 74% of McCain's, Bachmann only 74% etc.,
As election time gets closer, most of McCain's 2008 supporters should come home to whomever the GOP candidate is. Ultimately, each one of those '12ers would probably get 85% or more of McCain's voters. So this thing is actually far closer than PPP's poll indicates.
3. Auto Bailout stuff. Obviously a potentially big issue in the state.
One issue where voters are clearly on Obama's side over Romney's- and one that has the potential to scuttle Romney's chances of winning the state further down the line- is the auto bailout.
51% of voters think that it's been a success to only 30% who disagree. And asked more specifically whether they think the bailout's been a good thing for Michigan 66% of voters say it has been with only 18% dissenting. Romney's opposition to the popular bailout will give Obama a good card to play if that ends up being the match up in the general election.
NH Republicans will meet with Perry
The New Hampshire Journal reports that key Granite State Republicans -- Sean Mahoney and Paul Young -- are forming a group of state vets to meet with Rick Perry in Austin next week.
Those attending the meeting appear to be split into three groups, those who want to push Perry to run; those who want to see what Perry is made of; and those who want to make sure Perry understands the First-in-the-Nation New Hampshire traditions.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Martin reports that Perry chatted today about a campaign with Republican bigs from Tennessee and Georgia.
While Perry loyalists note that they're drawing support from all over the country, there is an intense appetite in the South for a Perry bid.
....This has been SEC week in Austin for Perry, who met Monday with a delegation of Republicans from Arkansas.
Bolton backs Boehner's plan
John Bolton, who is still loosely toying with the idea of maybe running for president, is only the second '12er to endorse John Boehner's plan.
All conservatives, especially those concerned with American national security, should support the Boehner Plan.
That plan, as Speaker Boehner himself understands, is far from perfect. But there is no reasonable prospect, given the current political balance of power in Washington, to get anything better on the debt ceiling issue.
We cannot know exactly how financial markets will react to the various scenarios that might play out over the next several days, but the potential cost of finding out what the defeat of the Boehner Plan would be is not worth the risk.
Keep reading... he goes on to quote Clausewitz!
Here's a good rule of thumb that you can't learn in school these days, possibly because of No Child Left Behind.
If you're mildly snobby, quote Machiavelli. If you're moderately snobby, quote Sun Tzu, and if you're super snobby, quote Clausewitz.
Btw, Jon Huntsman is the other '12er to back Boehner's plan.
Is Perry more comfortable with faith than Bush?
It's a high bar, but Family Research Council's Tony Perkins says that Rick Perry might jump it.
[He] says Perry’s public faith professions will make a “big difference” to evangelical and social-conservative voters.
“I think that was very important for George W. Bush that he talked about his faith. Rick Perry actually seems to be even more comfortable,” Perkins observes.
Read the rest of Katrina Trinko's piece -- it's got loads of reaction to a Perry bid from the most important evangelical figures in the political realm.
Making sweet, sweet lemonade
Mark Meckler, co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, spins Republican dissatisfaction with the current 2012 field to RCP.
"We saw what enthusiasm gives us," Meckler said.
"It gives us what we have in the White House right now. Barack Obama was elected on a base of enthusiasm and excitement."
Huntsman takes heart
Jon Huntsman tells CBS that bad polling doesn't bother him...
"If the election were next month, I guess there'd be cause for concern, but the fact of the matter is: we've got a long way to go....We've announced, we've organized, we've got a terrific presence in early states, so that's exactly where we wanted to be.
Nobody's going to pay any attention to this race until September or October, and by then, we'll have the organization on the ground, we'll have a message honed."
[Hat tip: Mike O'Brien]
Why is Romney squishy on Boehner?
AllahPundit questions Mitt Romney's failure to take a clear stand on John Boehner's plan.
Why would a guy who’s willing to snub tea partiers by doubling down on RomneyCare and endorsing ethanol subsidies suddenly get cold feet about backing Boehner’s plan? He’s got cover from Allen West and Paul Ryan on that.
Alternatively, if he feels he needs to build a little cred with fiscal conservatives, why not unload on Boehner and hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance? He’s got cover from DeMint and Rand Paul on that and his establishment fans won’t abandon him over one well-timed pander to the base.
Santorum rips Perry over gay marriage (again)
Rick Santorum slammed the race's other Rick in Iowa yesterday for saying states had the right to determine whether they want to recognize gay marriage or not.
“I am not, as some in this race have said 'OK' with New York doing what they’re doing. What New York did was wrong. I will oppose it, and I will go to New York, if necessary, to help overturn it.”
He continued:
“I’m for great latitude for the states to do a lot, but not anything, and this idea that the 10th amendment means there is no boundary to what the states can do is a mis-understanding of the 10th amendment, and I will stand on that ground.”
Last week, Perry provoked controversy when talking to GOP donors in Colorado.
"Our friends in New York six weeks ago passed a statute that said marriage can be between two people of the same sex. And you know what? That's New York, and that's their business, and that's fine with me.
.... That is their call, if you believe in the 10th Amendment."
That provoked a quick response from Santorum, who's violated Reagan's 11th Commandment more often than Jim DeMint and David Brooks at a forum hosted by Erick Erickson's red-state diary.
So Gov Perry, if a state wanted to allow polygamy or if they chose to deny heterosexuals the right to marry, would that be OK too?
George Lopez: I'll move to Canada if Palin wins
Actor George Lopez promises:
"If Sarah Palin becomes president at any point, I would say 'allegedly', I will move to Canada.
I will go further north. I’ve been south but I will go further north. I will leave the United States of America. I like my politicians to actually have a political background."
Actually, this probably scores Palin a few extra votes.
Romney's Veep short-list
He tells Virginians it's Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio -- the same as probably every other '12 contender.
Offering his thoughts so early is a way to boost the inevitably argument. Can you imagine Rick Santorum rattling off a Veep list? (Who'd be on it? Grover Norquist, Bob Vander Plaats?).
Btw, Pat Buchanan said this morning that Christie could be hugely successful as Veep, because he could pick off New Jersey for Republicans.
Two problems with that.
1. Polls show Christie would have trouble picking off his own state for himself.
2. Hasn't the notion that a Veep can change his state's color been proven wrong time-after-time?
[Hat tip: First Read]
Huntsman: Romney runs from his record
The Washington Post on Jon Huntsman's retooled stump speech -- debuting in New Hampshire yesterday.
Much of Huntsman’s criticism of the former Massachusetts governor [Mitt Romney], who has a home here, has been thinly veiled.
“I’m running on my record. A lot of people run from their record,” Huntsman said, swiping at Romney.
“So when you look at our record, we’ve got the number one job-creating state back when I was governor, as compared and contrasted with others in the race.”
That new stump speech also includes sharper attacks on Barack Obama.
“So the president’s a good man, he’s got a good family, he’s earnest, but he’s fundamentally failed us on the most important issue of our time, which is job creation and the economy.”
Huntsman's new, edgier tone is a response to lagging polls that his campaign apparently attributed to Huntsman's calls for a civil campaign. I tend to think H's electoral problem is more about his ideology than rhetoric -- conservatives generally pan him for stuff like cap-and-trade and not tone.
Romney hits Obama on trade
Mitt Romney's new web video supplements a growing series. By my count, in three of his last four web videos, neither his face or voice has appeared -- only Barack Obama's.
It's a sign of Romney's focus on Obama and obvious intent to make the 2012 election a referendum on the president's economy.
Krauthammer: Bachmann is "unbelievably irresponsible" on debt ceiling
Charles Krauthammer, after being asked about Michele Bachmann's opposition to any plan that raises the debt ceiling.
"I'm not going to be the psychiatrist, other than to say that it is unbelievably irresponsible.
And even only from the point of view of this -- if you're a conservative, you know that we're overspending, we're going into debt, government is expanding at an alarming rate, it's destroying everything around us. How do you stop it?
The only way to stop it in our constitutional system is if you control the White House and the Congress. You cannot govern from one house of the Congress. You can't even govern from one branch -- all the Republicans, conservatives control now is half a branch.
Under our system, you've got to have it all, and that can only happen if you persuade the country next year in the election that we need smaller, more constitutional government."
Gallup: Perry emerges as Romney's main rival
A new Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney clinging to a small lead over Rick Perry in a hypothetical 2012 primary.
1. Mitt Romney 17%
2. Rick Perry 15%
3. Sarah Palin 12%
4. Michele Bachmann and Rudy Giuliani 11%
6. Ron Paul 8%
7. Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich 3%
9. Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum 2%
Key Take-Aways:
a. Perry's support is robust. If Palin and Giuliani don't run, Perry still emerges as Romney's closest competitor, although Romney widens the gap in that scenario -- probably because he pulls in more of Rudy's vote than Perry does Palin's.
b. Romney's, too. He leads regardless of who's in the race, and has maintained the advantage since May.
c. Palin's ideological divide. This is weird. She actually scores better with self-described "liberal" and "moderate" Republicans (14%) than with "conservative" Republicans (11%).
In fact, she doubles Bachmann among liberals and moderates, and Bachmann beats her among conservatives.
d. Pawlenty disappears. 2% and tied with Santorum and Huntsman -- candidates who never even appeared. It's time to stop calling T-Paw a first tier candidate.
e. The big finish. Here's the table, charting results from various permutations of the race.
Palin compares debt ceiling to TARP
Sarah Palin told Greta Van Susteren last night that Barack Obama was "fear-mongering" on the debt ceiling and claimed that the urgency surrounding it was as cooked up as that around TARP.
"Scaring the American people is exactly what President Obama is doing. In that bizarre speech that he gave last night, it reminded me of when he insisted that TARP had to be passed -- it was life-or-death, at that time, also.
We had to increase spending in the federal government or people would be starving on the streets, and look at what TARP resulted in."
Palin would have to count herself, then, as one who was deceived by TARP, because she supported it during the 2008 campaign before reversing her position after the presidential election.
Palin: Boehner's plan isn't good enough
On Tuesday night, Sarah Palin told Fox News that she respects John Boehner's plan on the debt ceiling, but still preferred the Cap, Cut, and Balance plan.
"I do respect Speaker Boehner's efforts in trying to negotiate with jello -- as he characterizes trying to negotiate with President Obama, but the internal problem that he has is reinventing the wheel here in the 11th hour, when we already have Cut, Cap, and Balance that passed the House, and we don't need to retreat now and wave a white flag."
She also reiterated that she doesn't want the debt ceiling raised in the first place, but that if it's inevitable, Republicans "better get something out of it".
Cut, Cap, and Balance has little chance of passing the Senate, which is why Boehner is currently pushing a new plan that has Republicans divided.
Palin: Obama a drama queen on debt ceiling
On Fox News last night, Sarah Palin knocked Barack Obama for allegedly creating artificial drama over the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling.
"This August 2 deadline is looming, but it's not Armageddon, it's not life-or-death, so Boehner and the Republicans have got to make sure that they've got a good plan in front of those who will be voting on this plan.
Otherwise, more of this Obama Drama is going to continue."
This isn't the first time Palin has dismissed dire warnings about the ceiling. Earlier this month, she said:
"I'm still not one to buy into this notion that we must incur more debt, that we must increase the debt ceiling by August 2; otherwise, there will be catastrophe.
I still don't believe that that's necessarily the case."
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Pawlenty undecided on Boehner's plan
Tim Pawlenty said this afternoon he would need to know more about the spending cuts in a proposal from House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, to raise the nation's debt ceiling.
After speaking to about 50 people at a coffee house in Ottumwa, Pawlenty told reporters he would like to know whether Boehner's spending cuts are in real dollars and if they're permanent.
Michele Bachmann took a more unambiguous stand today, calling Boehner's plan "wrong".
"They're beginning from the premise that we will increase the debt ceiling, [and] that's the wrong premise."
Director won't choose between Palin, Bachmann
"The Undefeated" director, Steve Bannon, on whom he'd choose for president -- Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann.
"They're two totally different people.... Bachmann is a firebrand, she's a Thomas Paine.
Gov. Palin is completely different, an executive and a very hands-on leader.
In case you were wondering, Bannon has also made a film about Bachmann.
Pataki to New Hampshire
Fresh off a trip to Iowa last week, former NY Gov. George Pataki is heading to New Hampshire to host a talk at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College.
Earlier this year, he ruled out a presidential run; then reversed himself once Mitch Daniels decided not to run, since he questioned whether any other candidate was serious enough about addressing the deficit.
Asked whether Pataki is still thinking about running, Dave Catalfamo, spokesman for No American Debt, said in an email, “Yes, he is still considering a potential run.”
Last month, he told Fox News what type of campaign he'd run.
"I like those retail politics, where you sit down with four or five people and engage in a dialogue, instead of the 30 second soundbite, TV commercials."
I have no idea why Pataki is doing any of this.
[Hat tip: Sam Jacobs]
Barbour urges DeMint to back Boehner
Haley Barbour (R) criticized the Tea Party wing of the GOP on Tuesday for failing to get behind Republican leadership on a deficit plan.
"Our people have to understand that we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good," Barbour said.
Barbour said House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) had shown "courage" in the deficit debate by agreeing to compromise in order to raise the debt ceiling.
"In politics, purity is a dead dog loser," he said. "We cannot go out with the idea that we're going to be pure, or we're going to do nothing."
Since opting out of a run for president, Barbour's repeatedly fought to steer Republicans and tea party supporters toward unity.
Last month, he told Republicans activists:
"We're going to nominate far and away the best candidate. He's going to be ten times better than Obama, but don't get hung up on purity.
In politics, purity is a loser.
As I say, our candidate won't be perfect, but in this business, it is unity that wins elections."
Barbour hasn't said whom he'll back in the '12 race yet, but Rick Perry seems a strong possibility -- his nephew, Henry, is backing him, and Haley and Perry have worked with the RGA together.
Huntsman's new speech
It's part of the rework:
Jon Huntsman is set to unveil a fresher, tougher stump speech Tuesday, his aides said, an effort aimed at energizing his flagging bid for the GOP presidential nomination.
.... The speech, one of four planned this week, comes as Huntsman has a new campaign manager in place, effectively pressing the reset button on his months-long campaign, which remains in the single-digits in national polls.
Giuliani hosts "Mob Week" on AMC
Rudy Giuliani is coming to a bloody television near you, August 2-6, when he hosts a mob movie marathon, featuring Scarface, The Goodfellas, two of the Godfathers, and the underrated Donnie Brasco.
Gingrich still confused about Tiffany's controversy
Newt Gingrich, talking to a Boston TV station yesterday about the continuing hub-bub over his Tiffany's credit line -- now closed.
"I don't understand that. It's all paid for. It's my personal money. It's after-tax income. I love my wife. I'm happy that we're able to do nice things."
Yesterday, it was revealed that Gingrich's net worth is $6.7 million, and that his Tiffany's credit line was officially closed last year.
The Gingrich campaign faced controversy in May when it was found that Newt had a revolving charge account at Tiffany's of $250K-$500. A second line of $500K-$1 million was recently acknowledged.
Newt Gingrich: "People are disgusted": MyFoxBOSTON.com
CBS hosted one of the more sprightly spars this year when Bob Schieffer quizzed Gingrich over the debts on May 22.
Perry supported states on medicinal weed
Rick Perry, talking about states' rights in a November 2010 interview on The Daily Show.
"[If] you want to go somewhere where you can smoke medicinal weed, then you ought to be able to do that."
Perry's position on gay marriage isn't new
Last week, Rick Perry sided with states' rights on gay marriage, telling an audience that New York's decision to recognize gay marriage was "fine" with him.
But that wasn't anything new for him. Instead, it was an affirmation of previous statements on the issue.
Here's a little gem from Perry's visit to the Daily Show set last November in the GOP12 archive.
"California voted for gay marriage.
In Texas, we got a constitutional amendment against it, and what I consider -- that is the beauty of this union is that if you want to go live in places where they have a big tax structure, real expansive regulatory climate, where trial lawyers are free to sue just about anytime and anywhere, and you want to go somewhere where you can smoke medicinal weed, then you ought to be able to do that."
Later, he called gay marriage the state's "call."
STEWART: Would you like to see -- at some level -- Texas as its own country? Little bit? Little bit? United Republic of Texas.
PERRY: No, we like it. Look, we been there before, and it was a brutal 10 years.
STEWART: Can I tell you something? Texas is a beautiful state, and I've been down there many times -- Austin, Lubbock, San Antonio -- it is really a great state.
PERRY: But we just as soon stay with you guys.
STEWART: That's very kind of you. Are you sure, 'cause we might start gay marrying all over the place. You'd better be careful.
PERRY: But you know what, that's your call. That's your call.
Meanwhile, there's continuing fall-out over Perry's New York comments.
Gary Bauer, the influential evangelical and president of American Values, blasts him in an interview with Real Clear Politics.
"His comments were inartful and disappointing. The 10th Amendment and states' rights is very important to conservatives, but it's not our highest value.
.... There are some things so fundamentally wrong that we have not left those things up to the states."
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