Evening eats

a. Sarah Palin is on/off/on/off/ and on again for an Iowa tea party event.

b. "Calculated chaos is vintage Palin."

c. Ticket? Rick Perry will appear with Bob McDonnell at a fundraiser for VA GOP.

d. Politico-NBC debate is still on.

e. Joe Scarborough calls Perry a "dime store conservative."

"Power outsiders" on Palin

When The Patch and Huffington Post asked GOP "power outsiders" if Sarah Palin should run...

The more common response was a mix of respect and sympathy for Palin combined with grave concerns about electability.

That seems to get it about right at the grassroots level, and mirrors all those polls showing that Palin is popular with Republicans on a personal, but not electoral level.

Btw, "power outsiders"are defined as "influential Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina".

Perry confirms for Values Voter Summit

The Family Research Council's Tony Perkins announces that Rick Perry will speak at this October's Values Voter Summit.

Other speakers to appear at the confab: Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.

Other 2012 candidates who've been invited but not confirmed: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich.

Full list here.

The annual event features a presidential straw poll. Guess who won last year? Mike Pence with Mike Huckabee close behind. Neither is running this year, which means it'll be an up-for-grabs poll.

Romney's very effective ad

Pollster Frank Luntz's focus group goes crazy for Mitt Romney's recent web ad, hitting Barack Obama upon the president's arrival in Minnesota.

Watch Democratic approval for the ad -- it's nearly as high as Republican approval.

Luntz concludes.

"That is one of the best dialed ads of the entire, 2011 political cycle, so far. Even Obama voters looked at that and said 'You know what? I agree with it. It's reasonable, it's fair.'

And there's a message for everyone who's creating these ads. Stop with these ridiculous, negative, humorous, ironic ads and speak straight to the American people."

Romney ran a series of these vids during Obama's tour.

Here's vid of the dialed response.



And the original ad.

FreedomWorks will protest Romney speech

CNN's Shannon Travis on a group carrying out its vow:

National tea party sponsor FreedomWorks announced Wednesday it will protest Mitt Romney's debut at a major tea party event in New Hampshire this Sunday.

The group accused the Republican presidential candidate of suddenly "pandering" to conservative activists "because he's getting challenged from [Minnesota Rep. Michele] Bachmann and [Texas Gov. Rick] Perry and even [Texas Rep.] Ron Paul."

.... "We've said all along that Mitt Romney's positions on key economic issues – particularly on health care and cap and trade – are anathema to the core issues that animate the tea party movement," Kibbe told CNN.

Here's a June interview with Kibbe in which he rejected the idea of supporting a third party, while saying that the GOP risks provoking one if it nominates someone who isn't acceptable.

Romney has been clearly unacceptable to the group, but -- from this interview -- it seems unlikely that they'd oppose him as vigorously in a general as they are now.

Scarborough: Perry can't win general election

Joe Scarborough, this morning.

"He [Perry] can't carry Ohio. He can't carry Pennsylvania.

Of course, he can't get elected in a general election. He can't. He can get elected in the Republican primary, but he can't get elected in the general election."

I don't see why he can't win Ohio. Barack Obama lost by 10% to Hillary in 2008 and had notorious trouble with Reagan Democrats in the primary before they reluctantly voted for him in the general. Perry could easily score with that group.

Perry raises $600K in Texas

The Star-Telegram on Rick Perry's $2,500/person fundraiser in Fort Worth.

In about an hour Tuesday, Gov. Rick Perry swept through town, energizing local Republicans and adding about $600,000 to his presidential campaign war chest.

.... Perry is turning to Texans this week after wrapping up out-of-state fundraisers last week. He was in Fort Worth and Dallas on Tuesday, and he plans to attend fundraisers this week in Houston, Midland and San Antonio

[Hat tip: Juana Summers]

Huntsman's tax plan

The Hill's Mike O'Brien reports on the "sweeping tax reforms."

The centerpiece of the plan is a proposal to reform tax rates.

The Huntsman plan would eliminate all loopholes, deductions and tax exemptions in exchange for establishing three individual income brackets, taxed at eight, 14 and 23 percent. The Huntsman plan would also eliminate capital gains and dividend taxes, do away with the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and reduce the corporate tax rate to 25 percent.

James Pethokoukis is impressed, calling it "easily -- the most pro-growth proposal ever offered by a US presidential candidate."

Huntsman will present all this during a speech in New Hampshire this afternoon, highlighting his job creation package of regulatory reform, energy independence, free trade, and the aforementioned tax reform.

Alexander Burns notes the wonkiness of the plan and compares it to Tim Pawlenty's effort to be more specific than his foes.

It remains to be seen whether Huntsman can get more political traction from his proposals than Pawlenty got from his. Conservative elites have been looking around for a policy-intensive candidate, and hoped Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan would play that role. If Huntsman is still an option for that crowd, despite his sharp criticism of the GOP, the speech could give some on the right a reason to be for him.

Meanwhile, Huntsman is releasing a new, fiscally-focused web video today to coincide with his speech.

Gary Johnson rips opponents in web ad

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson's new web ad offers headshots of the leading '12 candidates with the lyric:

"Meet the new boss. The same as the old boss."

Those old bosses? Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Dick Nixon.

Missing from the hit list? Reagan, Ford, and (inexplicably) Carter.

Cheney: Perry's Texas roots help

Dick Cheney was loathe to wade into the 2012 race on Fox & Friends today, but he did acknowledge part of Rick Perry's appeal.

HOST STEVE DOOCY: You lived in Texas, we were talking a little while ago, for four years. You know Mr. Perry a bit, and there's something about him.

Is it the fact that he is very Texan that has attracted a lot of people?

CHENEY: I think so.

I was always struck by the extent to which the rest of the country is attracted to Texas and to Texas politicians. Things are big there, and it is different.

I was a citizen of Texas for five years when I was running Halliburton.... but there is just a different feel to it. It's the West. There's a strong sense of independence, and a little bit of arrogance, maybe.

Two things.

1. Cheney endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison in her 2012 primary battle with Perry.

2. Don't you love how Cheney gratuitously slips in "when I was running Halliburton." Perfect example of how unaffected he was/is by political winds.

Romney plays wait-and-see on Perry

Jonathan Martin reports on a growing tension between Mitt Romney-backers who want him to start hitting Rick Perry and those urging caution.

The first camp worries that Perry could develop unshakable momentum unless Romney attacks now. As a GOP strategist tells Martin.

"Once tea party activists line up behind someone, they can be awfully hard to peel off.”

The second camp says panic isn't prudent quite yet.

As long as the final field remains uncertain, the caucus and primary calendar unset and Perry’s ability to hold up over a series of debates and heightened media scrutiny unknown, they say they’re reluctant to make any hard and fast strategic decisions.

The problem is that the longer Romney waits to attack Perry, the more desperate and politically-motivated those attacks seem.

That's exactly what happened in Kay Bailey Hutchison's 2010 primary against Perry. She started off with a big lead and avoided attacks. Then Perry started climbing and climbing, and she still avoided confrontation.

In the month's last election, voters seemed happy with their choice of Perry, and Hutchison clearly grew desperate, throwing everything she had at him. But voters had decided that they were going for Perry.

Romney needs to be particularly careful with his "career politician" argument against Perry. Hutchison used the corruption attack liberally, and it did nothing. Her vote for the bailout meant far more to voters than Perry's political relationships.

It's also risky for Romney because, if anyone strikes voters as a classic politician, it's Romney and his shifting positions and arguable panders. Perry, on the other hand, has a spontaneous quality and everyman charisma that people don't often associate with politicians.

In fact, if Romney continues to highlight the "career politician" argument against Perry, it could easily backfire and draw increased, negative attention to Romney.

Romney fares best against Obama

Also from that new Quinnipiac poll -- Mitt Romney continues to run strongest against Barack Obama among registered voters.

a. Mitt Romney 45% Barack Obama 45%

b. Barack Obama 45% Rick Perry 42%

c. Barack Obama 48% Michele Bachmann 39%

d. Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 37%

Notes:

a. Republican gains.

Every Republican has gained on Obama since last month. Romney was down 6%, but is now tied; Palin was down 19% but now loses by 14%, and Bachmann has shaved 3% off Obama's lead.

But Perry gets the gold, narrowing a 13% deficit to just 3%.

b. Romney wins indies.

Both Obama and Romney consolidate equal amounts of party support, but Romney has a 6% lead among independents.

The POTUS leads the other '12 candidates among indies, although he's got just a 2% edge on Perry.

c. Gender gap?

It's practically non-existent in this poll. Obama leads Romney among women by just 3%, while men like Romney by 4%.

The ethnicity gap -- always huge -- seems even huger this time around. Romney only gets 2% of the black vote, but he leads Obama by 20% among whites.

d. Education gap.

Belying conventional wisdom, Romney beats Obama (+3%) among those without a college degree, while Obama beats him among college graduates (+7%).

I'd expect those numbers to move a bit. If Obama chooses to engage in class warfare (which seems certain if Romney is the nominee), then college graduates might shift toward Romney, while those without a degree move more towards Obama.

e. Born-again evangelicals.

Here's the weirdest stat of all. Mitt Romney outperforms Sarah Palin against Obama among evangelicals.

16% of "born again evangelicals" (which excludes Mormons, I'd assume) would back Obama in an Obama vs. Romney match.

Meanwhile, 21% would back the POTUS in a matchup with Palin.

f. Obama's perilous ground.

He only hits the all-important 50% mark once, and it's against Palin.

But against Perry and Romney, he only manages 45%, which is troubling for an incumbent. And keep in mind that this poll measures registered voters; not likely voters. Likely voters are generally more inclined to go for the Republican candidate.

Pollster Peter Brown on the POTUS:

"He needs to improve his standing among men, whites and independents to ensure his re- election."

Quinnipiac shows modest Perry lead

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rick Perry still leading Mitt Romney, though by less than the double-digits he's racked up since entering the race.

1. Rick Perry 24%

2. Mitt Romney 18%

3. Sarah Palin 11%

4. Michele Bachmann 10%

5. Ron Paul 9%

6. Herman Cain 5%

7. Newt Gingrich 3%

8. Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Thad McCotter 1%

Notes:

a. Still Perry.

He's led in every national poll that I know of since announcing his run for president. The question is whether this smaller lead represents a cooling or is just an outlier.

b. Bachmann Drowned.

She had a two month period in the spotlight. That began with her performance in the second GOP debate and ended the day after her straw poll victory in Iowa. (That gets you thinking: what's your Michele Bachmann Moment in life? A brief period of unmitigated bliss and success, a Personal Pax Romana. For me, it was those first, few months after toilet training).

Now, Bachmann has slipped to fourth and only manages a tie with her natural and undeclared rival, Sarah Palin.

She's made a game effort, but the game seems to be slipping away.

c. Evangelicals like Perry.

He's not just wooing evangelical leaders; he's winning their followers, sporting a fat 15% lead over Romney. Considering his comfort with the group and Romney's Mormonism, that's a gap that will probably only grow.

Btw, Jon Huntsman gets a dash among evangelicals.

d. Romney and Palin's education gap.

This has been one of the more predictable, consistent phenomenons of the cycle: College graduates don't like Palin; but those without degrees do.

Only 4% of those with degrees choose Palin. Romney and Perry both do 21% better. Even Herman Cain does better among college graduates.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney does much better with college graduates than he does with those who don't have their degree (25% vs. 16%).

e. If Palin doesn't run...

Perry picks up 26% of her supporters, but Romney isn't too far behind at 20%. That's good news for Romney, since the CW would assume that Perry would clean up Palin's fans.

f. Stakes.

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.

"Being the new kid on the block has benefitted Perry. But with prominence comes scrutiny and both his Republican competitors and the Democrats are doing their best to convince voters he's not Mr. Wonderful.

The next few months will be a race between Perry and his Republican and Democratic opponents to define him for the vast majority of the American people."

Palin to New Hampshire after Iowa speech

The Iowa Republican reports that Sarah Palin will follow her September 3 speech at an Iowa tea party event with a visit to New Hampshire for another tea party event on Labor Day.

This has "candidate" written all over it.

AllahPundit notes that the event could just be one of many stops on The Tea Party Express Tour for her, and offers this intriguing possibility.

[The Tea Party Express Tour is] hitting a bunch of early primary states in addition to NH, arriving in South Carolina on September 9 and then Florida on the 10th, so if she announces on Saturday she could spend the next week making a mark in all four early primary states.

.... Note that the very last event on the TPE tour is the debate they’re co-sponsoring with CNN in Jacksonville on the 12th. She could announce that morning and then make her debut as a candidate that night. CNN will surely accommodate her by adding her at the last second. It’d be a ratings blow-out.

Santorum: Perry created lots of "dead-end jobs"

On Fox News last night, Rick Santorum turned a discussion about the evolution of the American economy into an attack on Rick Perry.

"In that evolution, we have lost a lot of good-paying jobs that supported families that allowed for upward mobility.

I think that's one of the things that people are saying.

You know, look at Governor Perry, and he talks about his unemployment rate, but a lot of those jobs were dead-end jobs that that were not resulting in a growing economy in the middle.

And that's where manufacturing comes in, and we need to make things in America."

For Santorum, it's yet another attack. What's odd is that the chat wasn't anywhere near Perry until he inserted the quick jab.

Santorum has developed a reputation as the fiercest critic of his fellow '12 rivals.

Evening eats

a. Generic Republican 48%; Obama 40%.

b. Mitt Romney rips Obama's foreign policy.

c. HillaryCare bedevils Rick Perry again.

d. John Cornyn: White House wants Jon Huntsman to run as an (i).

e. Romney will open his Florida headquarters this week.

f. Ron Paul doesn't think we've learned much since 9/11.

g. Mark Levin says Chris Christie's ego is "completely out-of-control."

h. Rudy will probably announce at the end of September.

Romney, in the 104 degree San Antonio heat today.

Romney waits for end of Hurricane Perry

An unnamed Mitt Romney adviser tells Jon Ward:

"We went through Hurricane Palin and Hurricane Huckabee and Hurricane Trump," the Romney adviser said, referring to the bright light celebrity names that stoked interest earlier this year: former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and businessman Donald Trump.

Referring to Perry, the adviser said: "This is just one more hurricane, but I think we're at the end of hurricane season."

The rest of Ward's piece belies that breezy indifference, with yet more talk of how Romney is planning to stop Perry -- "death by a thousand cuts", a Romney adviser notes.

Perry wins over key evangelical leader

Rick Scarborough, a leading evangelical who once issued a strong rebuke to Rick Perry, has now been wooed and won after a weekend retreat with the governor and other evangelicals, reports Time.

“I was holding judgment,” says Scarborough, who in 1998 founded the group Vision America to mobilize pastors and their congregations to vote on social issues, “but the more I’ve studied and listened, the more I have liked what I have heard.”

The turnaround is surprising.

In 2007, he ripped Perry for mandating that all 6th grade girls get an HPV vaccine, claiming it would lead to more pre-marital sex.

“The governor's action seems to signify that God's moral law regarding sex outside of marriage can be transgressed without consequence.”

But Scarborough now says he can appreciate how Perry made the decision.

“I’ve found that even when I’ve had strong disagreements with Rick Perry, once I saw his perspective I could see how he arrived at a conclusion."

Perry's proven himself awfully adept at soothing disaffected religious backers -- both at the state and now national level.

Most recently, he took heat for saying he was fine with New York recognizing gay marriage, but after a quick chat with key evangelical, Tony Perkins, he clarified his position to the satisfaction of both Perkins and many in the movement.

I think the key to Perry isn't necessarily in what he says, but how he says it. As Scarborough told Time:

“It was obvious to me as a preacher that it was real, it was undoctored, it was unprepared, it was off the cuff."

Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman obviously have different faiths from Perry, which hurts in connecting with evangelicals, but doctrine aside, they don't have the personal comfort while chatting about faith that Perry has.

Here's a quick side-by-side (granted, they're different forums).





In fact, Perkins told Katrina Trinko earlier this year that Perry "actually seems to be even more comfortable" talking about his faith than George W. Bush, and W was extremely popular among evangelicals.

Perry romping in South Carolina

A new PPP survey shows Rick Perry jumping out to a huge lead in South Carolina -- that state which has often served as a tiebreaker in primary elections.

1. Rick Perry 36%

2. Mitt Romney 13%

3. Sarah Palin 10%

4. Herman Cain 9%

5. Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich 5%

7. Ron Paul 5%

8. Rick Santorum 4%

9. Jon Huntsman 2%

Favorable ratings:

a. Rick Perry 65%/15% for +50%.

b. Herman Cain 46%/11% for +35%.

c. Sarah Palin 59%/33% for +26%.

d. Mitt Romney 52%/32% for +20%.

e. Newt Gingrich 42%/40% for +2%.

f. Ron Paul 35%/35% for even.

g. Jon Huntsman 11%/26% for -15%.

Notes:

1. Head-to-heads.

If Rick Perry were matched straight up against Mitt Romney, the Texas gov would win by 31%. That's impressive. More impressive? Even with a bunch of tea party candidates (e.g. Cain, Palin, Bachmann, Paul) in the mix, Perry holds a 23% lead over Romney.

Meanwhile, Romney would edge Bachmann by 5% in a head-to-head, which means this isn't just an anyone-but-Romney phenomenon. Perry performs 36% better against Romney in a head-to-head than Bachmann.

For his part, Perry also crushes Bachmann by 43%, which shows, yet again, that Bachmann's best day (straw poll in Iowa) was probably her worst (Perry officially gets in).

2. Romney's Fade.

The fade -- now, it's not just a Dominique Wilkins haircut. One month ago, Romney led the state by 9% over Palin. Now, he's not even competitive. It goes to show how soft Romney's support was, as everyone guessed.

The question is whether his New Hampshire support is any harder, and the answer is probably "yes", since it's much more suited to him.

But having said that, how much of Romney's national support is soft? Obviously, a good deal, since Perry's already leap-frogged him, nationally. But are we down to the core Romney supporters now, or can he go even lower?

3. Conservatives go for Perry.

He's up 30% over Bachmann among the "very conservative". He leads Romney by an even bigger, 35%.

And very conservative voters are often the most likely to turn out.

Meanwhile, he's also cruising among those who are "somewhat conservative", with an 18% lead over Romney.

Mitt does win moderates, but by just 6%, and only 16% of the GOP electorate in South Carolina is like native daughter Kathleen Parker.

4. Palin's Fade. Not only has she dropped from 16% to 10%, but there's also a more troubling phenomenon at work.

Perry is killing her in favorability numbers. That's always been Palin's strong suit. Republican voters have always liked her, even though many haven't wanted to vote for her. But check it out: her unfavorables are twice as big as Perry's, and Perry's favorables run higher than hers, even though she has better name ID.

If Palin runs, she'll absolutely need South Carolina, and right now Perry has a Texas-sized lead.

5. Huntsman's flag.

Yesterday, the state's Attorney General endorsed Huntsman, and Huntsman's chief strategist has promised he'll "plant a flag" in South Carolina. The state was also the scene of Huntsman's first address upon returning from China.

He's currently in last place, but has no reason to worry, since Huntsman told CBS last month that his campaign had a "terrific presence in early states" and was "exactly where we wanted to be." Sounds very Tim Pawlenty-esque, pre-drop out.

Romney to headline major tea party rally (finally)

CNN's Shannon Travis:

For the first time, Mitt Romney will headline a major national tea party rally.

On Labor Day the Republican presidential candidate will join the Tea Party Express' "Reclaiming America" bus tour in Manchester, New Hampshire, organizers tell CNN.

.... Romney's appearance at the event is significant: he has not headlined any events in the Tea Party Express' previous four bus tours. Meanwhile, leaders of other tea party groups say they cannot recall any major tea party events that Romney has spoken to or attended since the movement began in 2009.

Yesterday, The Daily Caller had a good read on the distance Romney has kept between himself and tea party groups.

The big question is whether today's news represents a longer-term shift in his relationship with the party, and whether it's been goaded there by Rick Perry's surge.

Christie's "command and concern"

Dorothy Rabinowitz writes that, during hurricane prep, Chris Christie showed why Republicans are still pining for him.

Still, there he was Saturday, an irresistible blend of command and concern, assurance and intense involvement -- all anyone could ask in such a time.

They were the ingredients of leadership that have been so obviously and persistently lacking in Mr. Obama's responses to emergency -- whether an oil spill or the crushing fact of long-term mass unemployment.

Pawlenty adviser regrets straw poll gamble

Vin Weber, the former co-chairman of Tim Pawlenty's campaign, gives a few strategic explanations for his guy's quick ouster.

WEBER: If there was any mistake, we should have not put as much emphasis on the Iowa straw poll and had a plan that would have carried us through to January, but that became financially impossible.

MINNESOTA POST: So you think it was a mistake to put all the eggs in that basket, the straw poll?

WEBER: First of all, I agreed to the strategy, so, I’m not saying I knew better. I do think that that was probably a mistake, but it was a mistake that I completely agreed with, so it’s as much my mistake as anybody else’s.

But, with 20-20 hindsight, you can say a strategy that would have allowed us to keep plowing on to January might have been wiser.

I don't think Tim Pawlenty ran a bad campaign or had a bad message.

He was just a bad candidate.

Ever since he dropped out, we've heard numerous excuses. He abandoned his pragmatism, Sam's Club conservatism didn't sell, he bet too much on Iowa, he had Nick Ayers at the helm etc.,

But really, all of that is just what we bloggers talk about because it can't be as simple as he was just a bad, dull candidate. But it was as simple as that. At no point in the campaign -- from its beginning in 2009 until now -- did he catch on.

How many times did we read about voters who went to see him and left saying something like this.

"He seems like an honest, good guy, but I'm not ready to commit yet."

If there was one thing uniting New Hampshire residents and Iowans, it was their reaction to Pawlenty.

Again, he wasn't a bad man. His people didn't run a bad campaign. He was just a bad candidate.

[Hat tip: Alexander Burns]

Romney hits "career politicians"

His planned remarks in Texas (of all places) today are fairly transparent.

"I am a conservative businessman. I have spent most of my life outside of politics, dealing with real problems in the real economy.... Career politicians got us into this mess and they simply don't know how to get us out!"

Romney has remained largely silent on Rick Perry since the Texas governor got in the race, but this is a line of attack he used at least once before.

While in New Hampshire earlier this month, he responded to a potential matchup with Perry, thusly.

"I think understanding how the economy works by having worked in the real economy is finally essential in the White House and I hope people recognize that."

Indeed, Marc Thiessen wrote yesterday that Perry's long career in government will be subject to Romney's attack.

Palin volunteer huddled with Todd in Iowa

Scott Conroy reports on the +20 minute meeting at the Iowa state fair earlier this month.

Ladd Ventling, who serves as a county coordinator for the Iowa branch of Organize4Palin, told RCP that he spoke privately with Todd Palin for over 20 minutes about the volunteer group’s efforts during the visit by Alaska’s former First Couple to the Iowa State Fair earlier this month.

Ventling said that while Todd Palin did not say his wife planned to announce her candidacy, the Webster City, Iowa, native came away from the conversation convinced that she does indeed intend to get in.

Todd has big sway in Palin's planning, so the meeting is notable.

Kristol: Sources close to Romney indicate Iowa push

Bill Kristol, on Fox News last night.

"I would be thinking about competing in Iowa. I do not think Romney can just sit back, let Perry muscle aside the other conservatives in Iowa.

I think what Romney will decide, I think this will happen, actually -- I've talked to some people pretty close to the campaign -- I think he will now compete in Iowa with Perry, if no one else gets into the race."

If so, a million stories comparing Romney 2012 to Hillary 2008 will be written, in addition to the million already written.

DeMint: Power hasn't gone to my head

Jim DeMint, to the Columbia Rotary Club yesterday.

"I think I'm the only senator who does not see a president when I look in the mirror."

[Hat tip: Alicia Cohn]

Screencap of the day

"I've been very impressed in recent days with Governor Huntsman."

Read the crawler on the screen.

Martinez: Veep speculation is "very humbling"

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, on chatter that she might be tapped as the GOP nominee's running-mate in 2012.

“It’s very humbling,” Ms. Martinez said of the attention, before quickly committing herself to her current job. She knows that New Mexicans grumbled when Mr. Richardson, her nemesis, spent long stints during his governorship running for president.

Btw, Bill Kristol wrote last night that if Rick Perry is the nominee, he might want to consider Martinez for Veep.

Her perfect re-up of a concealed weapon permit became a minor youtube hit yesterday, and the New York Times notes that, thus far, she's struck a strong, populist, and popular tenor within her administration.

Report: Mistake helps Bachmann reel in Jewish donors

The New York Post says some Jewish donors are telling Mitt Romney fundraisers that they're backing Michele Bachmann because she's Jewish.

Or at least they think she is, except that she's not.

"It's a real problem," one Romney fund-raiser said. "We're working very hard in the Jewish community because of Obama's Israel problem. This was surprising."

.... Now, with this latest hiccup among Jewish donors, some in Romney's camp have been wondering whether Bachmann and her allies are pushing the "Jewish" rumor to help their own fund-raising, sources said.

She has enjoyed strong popularity among Jewish voters and often talks about her stay on a kibbutz during the summer of 1974, when she was a teenager.

Bachmann's spokesman told The Post that he was unaware of the rumors in the Jewish community.

UPDATE: A reader reminds me of this vid from earlier this year.



[Hat tip: Buzz Tracker]

Will Romney knock Perry on entitlement reform?

AllahPundit reacts to a report that Mitt Romney might attack Rick Perry for being too ambitious on reforming Social Security and Medicare.

If Perry beats Romney for the nomination, though, then the DNC has a golden attack line handed to them: “Rick Perry is so radical on Medicare that he even scares other Republicans,” punctuated by a shot of Romney attacking Perry on those grounds at one of the debates. It would be devastating.

Kinky Friedman sets stakes

Kinky Friedman, a self-proclaimed "Jewish cowboy", once ran against Rick Perry in Texas but is now supporting him for president.

Last night, he told Fox News:

"It comes down to this: do you prefer a president who doesn't believe in evolution, or do you prefer a president that doesn't believe in Israel?

That counts for something."

Earlier this month, Perry said evolution was a "theory" with "some gaps in it". Friedman's knock on Obama's policy toward Israel is one increasingly shared within the Jewish community.

Christine O'Donnell to speak at Palin event

The Des Moines Register reported last night that Christine O'Donnell will take the stage "shortly" before Sarah Palin in Iowa this weekend.

The rally has big buzz since, initially, quite a few folks speculated that Palin would announce a presidential run there. But the Palin team has strenuously denied it.

As for O'Donnell, Palin's endorsement in her 2010 Delaware Senate race helped O'Donnell win the primary.

Charles Krauthammer called Palin "capricious" and "irresponsible" for the endorsement, since it robbed the GOP of a candidate who would have most likely won the general election.

UPDATE: The organizer says he made a mistake, and O'Donnell will not be speaking.

Huntsman ad man joins Super PAC

Scott Conroy reports that Jon Huntsman's ad man, Fred Davis, has joined a new Super PAC backing Huntsman.

Doing so gives Davis two opportunities.

1. A larger budget for pro-Huntsman ads.

2. More freedom to attack without officially being tied to the Huntsman campaign.

Yesterday, Politico reported on the creation of the new Super PAC, Our Destiny, which was set up by a Huntsman Corporation executive and could act as a conduit for H's dad's huge personal wealth to back his son, indirectly.

For his part, Davis is the guy who produced the Demon Sheep ads for Carly Fiorina and a number of weird webs ads, launching Huntsman's campaign.

The ads were widely-panned. MSNBC's Donny Deutsch said he was "bewildered" by their lack of substance and Joe Scarborough suggested Huntsman fire his adman -- who just happened to be Davis.

Here's one of the ads.

6 Days from Jon Huntsman Jr. on Vimeo.

Expect a rise in attack ads now that Huntsman has a Super PAC supporting him. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry already have a number backing them.

Evening eats

a. Michele Bachmann's book is out in November.

b. How Mitt Romney will attack Rick Perry?

c. Rick Perry would (sort of) try to put California in play.

d. Athletes are making their presidential choices.

e. Huntsman slammed China's one-child policy in January 2010.

f. How Bishop Romney informs Mitt Romney.

g. Huntsman Corp. insider launches a SuperPAC for Jon.

CNN: Perry in command

Yet another new poll (pdf) shows Rick Perry with a solid lead over the rest of the 2012 field.

CNN:

1. Rick Perry 27%

2. Mitt Romney 14%

3. Sarah Palin 10%

4. Michele Bachmann and Rudy Giuliani 9%

6. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul 6%

8. Herman Cain and Gary Johnson 2%

10. Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum 1%

Some notes:

a. Perry, Perry, Perry, Perry, Perry, Perry, Perry, Perry.

There, I just said his name 8 times, because that's at least how many times I've found him leading either a state or national poll since last week.

b. Gender.

As we've seen all cycle, strident tea-party candidates tend to do better with men than women. Indeed, Perry seems to be living up to the phenomenon, as he polls 9% better with men than women.

But Sarah Palin, who nearly always polls better with men, actually does better with women in this poll, as does Michele Bachmann.

c. Income and education. Palin's populism is apparent here. She performs better with those making less than $50K/year, and with those who haven't attended college.

In fact, she polls twice as good with those who haven't been to college than those who have. Meanwhile, Romney does much better among those who've been to college than he does with those who haven't.

But Perry sweeps everything. He leads each income and education demo.

Now here's the interesting result: Perry actually does better against Romney among those making $50K+ than he does with those making below $50K.

d. Ideology. Perry sweeps again. He wins indies, Republicans, Moderates, and Conservatives.

Another fascinating result: Palin actually beats Romney among self-described "moderates", but he doubles her among self-described "conservatives". That's completely opposite of usual findings, so it's too distant an island to map yet.

Romney: I doubled; not quadrupled house

In an interview with the New Hampshire Union Leader, Mitt Romney sets the record straight.

I asked him, why give the media and political foes raw meat right now by filing for permits to tear down a La Jolla, Calif., beach house and quadruple its size? That was the wire story we had run the day before, and it was all over the Internet.

It’s not accurate, Romney said, simply. The application he made, two years ago, was to double the living space by turning one story into two. The “quadrupling’’ was a measurement of added nonliving space, including a basement and garage.

As the article notes, there was controversy over the optics of news that Romney was quadrupling his 3,009 square foot house in California.

Doubling the dwelling makes it seem mildly less ostentatious, but his opponents are sure to class warfare him with it (using "class warfare" there as a verb reminds me -- I recently read in GQ that once you're over 30 years old, you can't use "party" as a verb anymore).

[Hat tip: TPM]

Susana Martinez shooting

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez is a strong, potential candidate for vice-president in 2012 and a pretty good shot.

Here she is, proving herself ready for a dystopia.



[Hat tip: Brittany Cohen]

Ron Paul: Being pro-life extends to wars

Ron Paul, who's strongly anti-abortion, criticizes anti-abortion groups that aren't anti-war.

"These same groups have very little interest in being pro-life when it comes to fighting illegal, undeclared wars in the Middle East or preventive (aggressive) wars for religious reasons.

An interesting paradox!”

His push for moral equivalency on the two matters is probably why, despite his pro-life record, Paul doesn't do very well with that group.

More Americans agree with Perry on government's role

A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows that by +4%, likely voters support Rick Perry's promise to "make Washington D.C. as inconsequential in your life as I can."

38% agreed, 34% disagreed, and 28% are undecided.

And here's the main reason you see such a big gender/ethnicity gap in each election. 50% of males support Perry's statement, while just 28% of females do. Moreover, whites and other ethnic groups are over twice as likely to agree with Perry than are blacks.

Santorum blasts "jihad" against himself

The Hill's Justin Sink reports:

Rick Santorum said the gay community has "gone out on a jihad" against him for his stance against gay marriage.

"So the gay community said, 'He's comparing gay sex to incest and polygamy, how dare he do this,' and they have gone out on a, I would argue, jihad against Rick Santorum since then," the former senator said at a campaign stop in Spartanburg, S.C., on Friday.

Santorum has been one of the most frequent opponents of gay marriage.

Btw, if you notice, Santorum talks of himself in the third person there. That practice is known as illeism, I just found out.

Report: Pawlenty's campaign was in debt

Sam Stein has the story.

Several Republican sources tell The Huffington Post that the former Minnesota governor was confronted by a far more intractable obstacle than leapfrogging the first two finishers -- Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul -- or facing the newest entrant to the field, Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Pawlenty, the sources say, was out of cash, his campaign having spent heavily in the lead-up to Ames, hoping for a better score than what he got.

.... One source suggested the campaign's debt was as high as $500,000, but another source with closer knowledge of the campaign deemed that figure far exaggerated.

Trump had "great conversations" with Perry

Donald Trump, who's reportedly been courted by Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, praised the latter on Fox & Friends today.

"He has called, and we've had great conversations. He's doing really well. I'm sort of proud of him.

He really is doing well. He's doing a good job, and we'll see what happens. It's early yet, but he does have, also, a great voice."

As for what they've talked about.

"I think he likes my views on China, I think he likes what I'm saying about other countries just absolutely ripping this nation.... I think he, and the other candidates, the reason they're all calling me -- we have resonated."

Last week, James Hohmann reported that Perry and Romney have been phoning Perry, recently.

Huntsman clarifies Veep comments

Jon Huntsman says he wasn't playing favorites when he joked about not being Mitt Romney's Veep and possibly being Bachmann's.

"Listen, all I said -- it was in response to a hypothetical question about my commitment to service.

I've served President Reagan, I've served President Bush, I've served President Bush, I've been elected as governor, I've been an ambassador three times. You love your country; you serve her.

And all I was saying to a hypothetical question was: I would serve my country when asked."

The question was alluding to Huntsman's interview last week when he said he couldn't imagine being Romney's running mate, because there'd be "too many jokes about that."

It was clear that Huntsman was joking about it, but lots of people took it seriously and reported that he wouldn't be Mitt's mate.

In that same interview, Huntsman said he'd be open to being Bachmann's running mate, which prompted a slew of "Huntsman snubs Romney, but would serve as Bachmann's Veep" kind of stories.

P.S. Notice that Huntsman doesn't mention Obama on the list of presidents he's served, even though he mentions serving both Bushes and Reagan. He just talks cryptically of being an ambassador three times.

Huntsman, Fox host spar over global warming

On Fox & Friends this morning, host Brian Kilmeade challenged Jon Huntsman about his belief in global warming.

HUNTSMAN: I've always said, and it's on the record.... climate change has an established body of science associated with it. That's all I'm going to say.

KILMEADE: And a lot of corruption surrounding it, which has a lot of eyebrows up.

HUNTSMAN: But beyond that, let's get serious about the issues of the day.

KILMEADE: Well, tell the scientists to get serious about making things up.

HUNTSMAN: The issues are about dealing with the debt we face and creating jobs. Everything else right now is a side-show.

KILMEADE: That's true, but we're not the ones taking grant money with scientists and making up results which hurt the cause, in particular.

Huntsman famously embraced global warming in a tweet two weeks ago -- one that got him a lot of press.

It's ironic that he's now call it a "side-show" when he was the one raising the issue with the provocative tweet.

South Carolina AG will endorse Huntsman

Last night, Jon Huntsman teased with the promise of a South Carolina endorsement, and it looks like it will be the state's Attorney General, Alan Wilson.

That's another snag in a season of snags for Huntsman in the state.

Huntsman picked up early support in the Southern primary state from longtime state Sen. John Courson, former Attorney General Henry McMaster and family members of the late South Carolina Gov. Carroll Campbell, all of whom have ties to Huntsman’s state strategist Richard Quinn.

I've been somewhat baffled by Huntsman's relationship with South Carolina.

He's made a concerted effort to rally support there (top state strategist, Richard Quinn, said he would "plant a flag there"), but famously embraced evolution in a few derisive knocks at creationists, of whom there are many in the Palmetto State.

Obviously, if he can't perform in New Hampshire, he's done, so it makes sense to appeal, first and foremost, to New Hampshire Republicans and independents, but at one time, he seemed to be prepping South Carolina as the state where he'd prove broader appeal than Mitt Romney.

GOP Whip: It'll be Perry vs. Romney

GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy weighed in on the 2012 race, at the Greater Bakersfield Chamber of Commerce's Update Forum.

"I will tell you who I think it's going to come down to, and that's Perry and Romney."

He also chided Romney for a fairly inscrutable move.

McCarthy said he wonders who told wealthy former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney now was a good time to nearly quadruple the size of his family's beach house in La Jolla.

Romney would benefit from being more in touch with everyday people, McCarthy said.

"He needs to stop staying in hotels and start staying with volunteers at every campaign stop," the House majority whip said. "His job should be to take out the trash every day, and if that bag breaks, he needs to clean it up."

Romney, Perry to speak at Veteran's Convention

Rick Perry will speak at the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention in San Antonio today.

Tuesday, Mitt Romney swoops into town to address the 8,000 registrants.

But for the first time in the convention's 112 year history, neither the country's current president nor anyone in his administration will show up. Instead, Barack Obama is choosing to speak to the American Legion veteran organization on August 30.

In case you were wondering, Romney doesn't have any military experience, having picked up a ministerial deferment while serving as a Mormon missionary, as well as a student deferment during the Vietnam War.

Meanwhile, Perry received a commission in the Air Force after graduating from Texas A & M, and served until 1977, having become a Captain.

Bachmann: Rubio, DeMint good choices for Veep

While in Florida over the weekend, Michele Bachmann floated the names of a couple possible running-mates, including the state's junior senator.

“Marco Rubio has the hallmarks of, I think, everything that a person would look for in a potential candidate. He’s got so much going for him,” Bachmann said, also naming South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint as another possibility.

Rubio is undoubtedly the front-runner for the veep position with nearly every candidate, but her inclusion of Jim DeMint is notable.

First, no politician embodied the tea party more completely than DeMint. People often forget that his PAC, The Senate Conservatives Fund, raised $9.2 million from 2009-2010, more than any '12 candidate in that period.

He then used that money to help a wide variety of tea party candidates.

Second, DeMint comes from South Carolina, which promises to play a big role in the nominating process. Working to curry favor -- by name-dropping him as VP -- can't hurt.

Third, how about that pic I grabbed from Rubio's website? Biden, swearing in Rubio. Another way of saying it: One 2012 Veep candidate swearing in another?

Bachmann: God using natural disasters to prod politicians

Michele Bachmann, in Florida yesterday.

"I don't know how much God has to do to get the attention of the politicians. We've had an earthquake; we've had a hurricane. He said, 'Are you going to start listening to me here?'

Listen to the American people because the American people are roaring right now. They know government is on a morbid obesity diet and we've got to rein in the spending."

UPDATE: A Bachmann spokeswoman says the comment was in jest.

Evening eats

a. Newt Gingrich's 527 goes under.

b. Is Romney writing off too many states?

c. Or is he creating a firewall?

d. Controversy surrounds a key member of Jon Huntsman's finance team in South Carolina.

e. Examining Perry's jobs record.

f. Romney slams Biden over China comments.

g. Rick Perry makes Perez Hilton.

h. Republicans are getting happier with their candidates.

Chris Martin's voice sounds so Joshua Tree-Bono here.

Where Paul gets his money

A Smart Politics analysis shows that, per capita, Ron Paul's biggest donor states are the libertarian bastions of Wyoming, New Hampshire, Nevada, Alaska, and Texas.

The bottom? D.C., Indiana, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and South Dakota.

[Hat tip: Political Wire]

Rick Perry signs marriage pledge

The National Organization for Marriage announces that Rick Perry has inked it; thereby, joining Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum in supporting the group's goals.

The pledge (pdf) is as follows:

1. "Support sending a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman to the states for ratification."

2. "Nominate to the U.S. Supreme Court and federal bench judges who are committed to restraint.... and thus reject the idea our Founding Fathers inserted a right to gay marriage in our Constitution."

3. "Defend the federal Defense of Marriage Act vigorously in court."

4. "Establish a presidential commission on religious liberty to investigate and document reports of Americans who have been harassed or threatened for exercising key civil rights to organize, to speak, to donate, or to vote for marriage..."

5. "Advance legislation to return to the people of the District of Columbia their right to vote on marriage."

Perry's flip on the issue is well-documented, but the brief version is that last month, he said he was "fine" with states recognizing gay marriage; then said he was for a federal amendment banning that right one week later.

[Hat tip: Rachel Weiner]

Perry leads on three most important issues

Look at this table from Gallup, and you'll see why Rick Perry is leading this thing, right now.



One key stat that's not in the table: Tea party voters favor Perry by huge numbers over Romney (expected), but Perry battles Romney to a near-draw among non-tea partiers (unexpected).

Santorum rips Perry on immigration

Rick Santorum, attacking Rick Perry over immigration while in South Carolina.

“We know unfortunately the history of governors in Texas on the issue of immigration,” the former Pennsylvania senator said, adding, “I understand being governor of Texas is a tough thing. But you’ve got to stand up and defend.... But you’ve got to stand up and defend your record.”

And he (let's start calling him Rip Santorum for his frequent attacks, and maybe later, R.I.P. Santorum, if he can't get traction) took a shot at Jim DeMint for declining to invite him to a presidential forum in South Carolina.

“DeMint is supposed to be the common-sense guy,” not the “silly rules guy.”

DeMint's "silly rule" was only inviting those polling at 5% or higher in the RCP average of primary polls to the forum.

Krauthammer: Romney isn't good on the attack

Ensconced in his warning about RomneyCare, Charles Krauthammer says something important.

"Romney doesn't have to come out swinging and attacking. He's not good at that.

When he tried it in 2008 against McCain, it didn't work well."

But, Krauthammer thinks, he has to find a good defense for RomneyCare or he'll be "pummeled" by Perry on it.

Which brings up the question: If Romney's not good at attacking, can he win by just playing defense?

The 1980's Pistons and every Spurs team aside, it seems he'll have to eventually go after Perry, but if he's bad on the attack, it might backfire. It's not an easy question, which might be why they're trying to avoid it altogether.

Inhofe rips Romney over climate change

Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe, who endorsed Rick Perry this week, levels the flip-flop charge against Mitt Romney.

“I think people need to make up their minds,” said Mr. Inhofe.

“You know, we’ve had a lot of time, 10 years we’ve been thinking about this. We ought to decide where we are and not try to play both sides.”

Romney took heat this week for allegedly changing positions on climate change, but James Pethokoukis wrote yesterday that Romney has actually been "pretty consistent", and that's true -- on his most recent "flip", at least.

Romney, in June:

“I don’t speak for the scientific community, of course, but I believe the world’s getting warmer,” he said.

“I can’t prove that, but I believe based on what I read that the world is getting warmer. And number two, I believe that humans contribute to that. I don’t know how much our contribution is to that"

So he's saying: Climate change is real, but I don't know how much humans contribute to it.

Then, the supposed flip this week.

“"Do I think the world's getting hotter? Yeah, I don't know that but I think that it is. I don’t know if [climate change is] mostly caused by humans.... Do I think humans contribute to it? Yes.”

So he's saying: Climate change is real, but I don't know how much humans contribute to it.

The same thing as in June.

Krauthammer defines Huntsman

Conservative columnist, Charles Krauthammer, on Jon Huntsman:

"Huntsman is a liberal's idea of what a Republican ought to be."

James Hohmann has my favorite catch of the day.

It feels like Huntsman wears a purple tie every time he does a TV hit these days, just as Romney continues to go tieless. Purple is not a color you see that often on politicians so your Morning Score correspondent was struck to see him in purple on ABC’s “This Week,” CNN’s Piers Morgan and then PBS “News Hour” last night.

We can guess at his image consultant’s pitch: purple sets you apart from the pack while looking post-partisan [think purple states] and tolerant [it is the primary color of the gay pride movement].

Speaking of purple, everything in clothing stores these days seems to be purple and gray. A show of clandestine support from Calvin Klein, Donna Karan, and Michael Kors to the Arizona Diamondbacks as they struggle to hold their lead over the Giants, or a simple coincidence?



[Hat tip: Daily Caller]

Bachmann gets Top 10 from Heritage

The conservative Heritage Foundation ranks Michele Bachmann as the 9th most conservative member of the House or Senate.

Heritage Action’s legislative scorecard currently encompasses 30 votes and 5 co-sponsorship scores in the House and 19 votes and 4 co-sponsorship scores in the Senate.

The votes cover the full spectrum of conservatism, and include legislative action on issues both large and small.

Check out their guide. It's a pretty handy tool. You can see what Heritage wanted on a particular vote and how the member actually voted.

Jim DeMint, unsurprisingly, was first, earning a 99% score from Heritage (Bachmann got 94%).

Marco Rubio and Rand Paul were close behind, at 93%. Interestingly, Orrin Hatch picked up a primary-friendly 93%, as well.

As for former, possible candidate Mike Pence? Just 81%.

Paul Ryan? 78%, which tied him with Lindsey Graham. Heritage didn't like Ryan on the debt limit, on alleged-"kicking the can" support for appropriations funding the government through April 2011, and a variety of other measures.

Tea party Republicans most excited about Perry

A very good table to study as you hunker down for the hurricane.

It's great for Rick Perry, but, actually, not too bad for Mitt Romney. Mitt does trail three tea party candidates, but he shows a reasonably high ceiling with tea partiers, which means he doesn't yet have to pander to them to ensure they'd back him in a general election.

Maybe being "in sync" with them is enough for his purposes.