Evening eats

a. PPP confirms it: Newt holds a huge lead in Florida.

b. Herman Cain promises a decision in two days.

c. Mitt Romney picks up more Wall Street backing.

d. Richard Land wants a big apology speech from Gingrich.

e. Mitt Romney as the anti-Newt?

f. Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman have had awful counsel.

g. Adam Carolla as the new Rick Santelli.

It's the one year anniversary of the GOP12 video channel. So far, it's clocked in 530,000+ views -- thanks so much!

To celebrate, here's the most-watched of all-time. It's sort of ironic, huh?

Beck picks Bachmann

On Fox News last night, Glenn Beck eschewed Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich (whom he characterized as "big government Republicans") for a former star.

"The person that I would vote for is Michele Bachmann."

Okay.

But.

"I can't tell you why Michele Bachmann isn't connecting with the American people."

This interview happened nearly 24 hours ago, and in a different time (like last year), I would've found time to put it up immediately, but Beck is just way less relevant to the conversation than he was when he had his Fox show.

Also, he's clearly not intending to do much promotion for Bachmann's cause, which he seems to grudgingly understand is a lost one.

Right now, Bachmann needs conservatives to believe she can win, and if even her biggest name backer is somewhat hopeless, then you can imagine the lethargy throughout.

Tony Perkins: It's more than just the affairs

On Fox News this afternoon, the influential President of the Family Research Council, Tony Perkins, raised a point of objection from social conservatives that I hadn't heard yet.

After host Megyn Kelly asked whether he could get beyond Gingrich's affairs, Perkins answered:

"There's no question, Megyn, that is a major factor, but that's not the only factor that Newt Gingrich has to overcome with social conservatives.

As you look at his new Contract with America, it's pretty much devoid of social issues.

So what he talks about and what he makes a priority of, those issues are often absent from that."

I just went through his new Contract with America, and Perkins is right -- nothing about social issues (as traditionally-defined) in there.

Gingrich edges Obama

A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows Newt Gingrich actually nipping Barack Obama, 45%-43%.

To see more about the survey, click here (then pay Rasmussen $3.95).

While we're at it, let's take care of all the other new polls today -- each showing Gingrich with huge surges.

FLORIDA

A new Insider/Advantage survey.

1. Newt Gingrich 41%

2. Mitt Romney 17%

3. Herman Cain 13%

4. Rick Perry 7%

5. Ron Paul 4%

6. Michele Bachmann 3%

7. Rick Santorum 1%

Romney's been killing it in Florida pretty much all year, so I'd be curious to see additional polling on this one.

SOUTH CAROLINA

A new American Research Group poll:

1. Newt Gingrich 33%

2. Mitt Romney 22%

3. Herman Cain 10%

4. Ron Paul and Rick Perry 8%

6. Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann 3%

8. Rick Santorum 1%

CALIFORNIA

Field Poll:

1. Mitt Romney 26%

2. Newt Gingrich 23%

3. Herman Cain 9%

4. Ron Paul 5%

5. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann 3%

7. Rick Santorum 2%

8. Jon Huntsman 1%

Iowa corngrowers love Gingrich

Newt Gingrich might not want these grades to leave the state line, but the heavily-subsidized Iowa corn industry loves him.

The Iowa Corn Growers Association just gave him straight A's on agriculture, energy, trade, and other issues.

Overall report card:

1. Newt Gingrich A

2. Rick Santorum A-

3. Mitt Romney and Barack Obama B

5. Rick Perry C-

6. Michele Bachmann D+

7. Herman Cain and Ron Paul D

So what makes Newt perform so well?

The group gives him A's on ethanol and energy policy, renewable fuels standard, ethanol infrastructure, federal farm programs like ACRE, and EPA issues.

None of this is surprising, at all, though for long-time observers of Newt.

The Wall Street Journal editorial page called him "Professor Cornpone" earlier this year, concluding:

Given that Mr. Gingrich aspires to be President, his ethanol lobbying raises larger questions about his convictions and judgment. The Georgian has been campaigning in the tea party age as a fierce critic of spending and government, but his record on that score is, well, mixed.

.... Some pandering is inevitable in presidential politics, but, befitting a college professor, Mr. Gingrich insists on portraying his low vote-buying as high "intellectual" policy. This doesn't bode well for his judgment as a president. Even Al Gore now admits that the only reason he supported ethanol in 2000 was to goose his presidential prospects, and the only difference now between Al and Newt is that Al admits he was wrong.

Romney's new TV ad in New Hampshire

The campaign plunked down $85K of airtime on WMUR for the fiscally-focused spot.

Ron Paul cookbook

It's 28 pages, you can pick it up for $8 at his online store. He promises that it will "warm your kitchen and your heart" (that's in addition to the $1 trillion in spending cuts and shedding of five cabinet-level departments he's promising).

[Hat tip: Caitlin McDevitt]

Allen West open to Veep spot

Rep. Allen West (R-FL), after being asked on a radio show today if he'd consider being Veep on the 2012 ticket.

West said he would have to pray about and discuss the opportunity with his family, but he promised: “If I can make a difference, then I'll answer that call.”

Book: Perry bristled at tough questions from donor

Jon Ward has highlights from Politico's new e-book on the 2012 campaign, including these fairly unsurprising anecdotes.

The Texas governor was never seen reading news clips on his air plane, a former top fundraiser told Allen and Thomas, and had to be dragged into meeting a high-profile fundraiser from Florida, only to bristle at the bundler's detailed and aggressive policy questions.

"Sixteen questions?" Perry is quoted as saying of North Palm Beach businessman and former Ambassador to Portugal Al Hoffman. "Can you believe the nerve? Can't he go read about my positions on these things?"

Scheffler won't endorse

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, rips Mitt Romney in an interview with the Daily Caller, but won't work for anyone trying to beat him.

“I’m not going to publicly endorse anybody,” he said. “Either as an individual, or as an organization.”

Scheffler's primary beef with Romney is his relative lack of attention to Iowa and its socially-conservative organizations (like Scheffler's own).

Rove: I agree with Newt on illegal immigration

Karl Rove dishes to Newsmax.

"It's going to cause him problems in Iowa, which is an immigration-sensitive state, and I, frankly, personally agree with him that there needs to be a practical way to resolve the situation of people who are in the United States."

And interestingly, Rove then says that Newt told him that he was -- in Rove's description -- "persuaded by the arguments of John McCain and Mike Huckabee that we need to find a humane and practical way to do this."

Watch the video here -- it comes at 7:35 in.

Independents like Romney better than Gingrich

A new ABC poll has good news for Mitt Romney's electability case.

a. Mitt's favorability with indies has improved 13% since mid-October and now stands at 45%/30%.

b. Newt Gingrich's numbers have jumped by 7%, but he's still underwater at 36%/43%.

c. That means that Romney is far more popular with indies, with a +22% edge over Newt.

Now here's another good number for Mitt.

65% of those who consider themselves "very conservative" (a group he's had trouble winning over) have a favorable opinion of him -- that's up from 52% in mid- October.

Scarborough gets populist in bashing Newt

Joe Scarborough spent over a minute marveling about this screencap and slamming Newt Gingrich for it this morning.

Joe's populist punctuation mark:

"A registered nurse -- think about how hard a registered nurses work, Mike, year round.

Newt Gingrich is saying because he's a celebrity, and he gives a 30-minute speech and makes $60,000, he's making more than a registered nurse makes all year, cleaning bedpans, going room-to-room."

Scarborough was responding to comments Gingrich made yesterday, in which he claimed that he didn't need to lobby because he was charging $60K/speech.

GOP Immigration Chair blasts Gingrich

The Hill's Jonathan Easley:

The Republican chairman of the Immigration Reform caucus blasted GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Tuesday for calling to allow some illegal immigrants to remain in the country.

Speaking on CNN’s “John King, U.S.A.,” Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) likened Gingrich’s plan to drilling a hole in the bottom of a sinking boat to let the water out.

“Newt, I don’t care who you are,” Bilbray said. “Quit sending the mixed message that we are going to somehow reward or accommodate you if you broke the law while there are those waiting patiently and playing by the rules, waiting to come into this country legally.”

Gingrich calls Romney "former front-runner"

Newt Gingrich, at a townhall last night, firing back at Mitt Romney for firing at him.

“You’re talking to a guy who was dead in June. I’m now being attacked by the former frontrunner.”

Romney had jabbed Newt earlier in the night with his most substantial criticism yet, claiming that Newt was a "lifelong politician" who wasn't as electable as he.

"He and I have very different backgrounds. He spent his last 30 or 40 years in Washington. I spent my career in the private sector. I think that's what the country needs right now.

.... He’s a lifelong politician. I think you have to have the credibility of understanding how the economy works. And I do. And that’s one reason I’m in this race.”

Newt's "romantic" conservatism

Charles Hurt writes that Newt Gingrich can actually win this thing, and points to a Nora Ephron-like quality in the former Speaker.

Newt Gingrich is a romantic conservative.

Sure, he thinks that a system that takes from workers and gives to those who refuse to work is evil. But he is most passionate about the evils of a system that destroys and enslaves those it teaches to live off government handouts.

It is the most profound and mature concept of “Don’t Tread on Me.” And the perfect pitch for this crop of angry voters.

Of note -- the piece is getting headline treatment from Drudge.

Gingrich, Clinton embrace each other with claws

From my weekly column -- a look at the friendly political relationship between Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton, and why it's not to be trusted.

Gingrich has cast their relationship in the 1990s as a decidedly productive one.

While campaigning in Georgia this summer, he said that although “we disagreed deeply, [Clinton] understood we wanted to get things done,” and earlier this year, he told the Boston Herald that Clinton was “a very practical, Arkansas, everyday politician who had worked very hard to move his party to the center” — a theme he’s repeated often.

The political benefit of Gingrich’s admiration is obvious. Gingrich can use Clinton to beat back a damaging narrative — that he’s a petulant ideologue who wants to steal Christmas. After all, how could a petulant ideologue get along and actually pass legislation in the hyper-partisan world of Washington — and with a Democratic president, no less?

And by invoking his work with Clinton, Gingrich also gains credibility for his harsher attacks against President Obama. In fact, he often couples praise of Clinton with criticism of Obama in a nifty jab that appears post-partisan.

“I look back on negotiating with President Clinton, and I’m amazed at the rigidity President Obama has shown,” he told reporters this year. “[Clinton] accepted certain things I don’t think President Obama is willing to accept.”

He stayed on that tack during this year’s budget showdown, telling Fox News that Clinton was a “dramatically more reasonable person than Barack Obama.”

But Gingrich often includes a proviso to all his praise for Clinton. In his version of history, Clinton ultimately lost and Gingrich won.

“The fact is Clinton was charming, but we got welfare reform,” he told Fox News in 2009. “And he was charming, but we got a tax cut. And he was charming, but we balanced the budget.

“So I’m perfectly happy to be charmed with somebody who says yes,” he said.

In Gingrich’s view of the 1990s, he didn’t just win Clinton to his side, he also forever affected the future of the Democratic Party — a typically grand claim from Gingrich.

“One of the reasons that Barack Obama beat Sen. [Hillary Rodham] Clinton for the Democratic nomination is that the left has never fully forgiven Bill Clinton for having agreed with me,” he explained to Fox News.

And in a February op-ed for The Washington Post, Gingrich removed all doubt that he credits himself for the 1990s success, including a 1997 balanced-budget deal, flatly writing that “this historic success was not an achievement of the Clinton administration.”

So it appears there’s a limit to Gingrich’s praise for Clinton — it goes only so far as it benefits Gingrich.

But Clinton has also used Gingrich for politically selfish purposes. During the 2010 race, he swooped in for an event against Michele Bachmann and railed against Tea Party candidates.

“They make George Bush and Newt Gingrich look like garden-variety liberals,” he said. The praise was a rather transparent ruse to demonize a more contemporary group of opponents, and thus build up his party.

But he has additional reason to promote Gingrich, beyond painting a partisan contrast.

Presidents are often the focal point of all partisanship, and every president succumbs to its demands at one time or another. But ex-presidents are always interested in painting themselves as larger than party, and Clinton probably knows that Gingrich can help on that score.

By praising one of his fiercest former political foes (as he did last weekend), Clinton seems magnanimous; and by highlighting their work together in the 1990s, he seems friendlier to the history books, which often reward moderates.

As the director for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Larry Sabato, says, “They both belong to the same era, the 1990s, and so in a sense, they both gain by building up their times and challenges.”

And Sabato notes that you might keep hearing quite a bit of feel-good commentary from Clinton — at least until the general election.

“If one were Machiavellian — and perish the thought that Bill Clinton would ever be like The Prince — then we could speculate this is part of a Democratic plan to build up Gingrich at [Mitt] Romney’s expense.”

Keep reading...

Evening eats

a. Jon Huntsman thinks Herman Cain should think about dropping out.

b. Cain's supporters love Newt.

c. Huntsman gets sort of Occupy-ish.

d. Top Iowa social conservative is rebuked on Newt.

e. Don Imus calls Newt "greasy" and "repulsive."

f. Mitt Romney: "Bring it on."

g. Generic Republican 48% Barack Obama 42%.

Mitt in Muggy Miami, via The Hill Tube.

Why the Union-Leader didn't endorse Perry

The Manchester Union-Leader's editorial page editor, Drew Cline, explains why Rick Perry didn't pass their test.

"He did more than misspeak. He did more than recklessly attack his own base and generally act like the class bully assigned to spend study hall with the chess club. He did more than forget his talking points and display an uncomfortable lack of knowledge of important topics. He simply suffocated.

With one disastrous performance after another, he proved that he did not belong on the stage."

Instead, the paper gave its nod to Newt Gingrich.

Palin Reconsider ad runs in Iowa tomorrow

Here's the minute-long TV ad that pro-Sarah Palin groups have put together, urging her to reconsider her decision to opt out of the race.

It's a $6,500 buy.



The background music reminded me of Zamfir for the first time in about 12 years.

Michael Reagan: Dad would have supported Newt on immigration

Michael Reagan (the conservative Reagan son) defended Newt Gingrich's controversial position on illegal immigration on Fox News today.

"Ronald Reagan would have agreed with Newt Gingrich's position on that.... Ronald Reagan was someone who really believed in the family. He would not break up the family. He would find another way -- a more humane way, if you will -- to deal with this issue."

Reagan then made a broader point.

"Why Newt Gingrich is where he is is because he's not attacking anybody, he's attacking the issues, and offering solutions to the issue."

Gingrich supported conditional, individual mandate in 2005

Dave Weigel posts video of Newt Gingrich doing it.

"If I see somebody who's earning over $50,000 a year, who has made the calculated decision not to buy health insurance, I'm looking at somebody who is absolutely as irresponsible as anyone who was ever on welfare. Because what they've said is, A, I'm gambling that I won't get sick, and B, I'm gambling that if I do get sick, I can cheat all my neighbors.

.... I'm actually in favor of finding a way to say, whatever the appropriate level of income is, you ought to have either health insurance, or you ought to post a bond. But we have no right in this society to have a free rider approach."

I called this a "conditional" individual mandate for the next sentence (ea).

"We have we have no right in this society to have a free rider approach, if we're well off economically, to cheat our neighbors."

So it sounds like he's imposing income as a condition on the mandate, which raises the question of whether it's truly universal mandate.

For practical purposes, though, it's there.



[Hat tip: Matt Lewis]

Video: Fox host presses Rove over Newt

There's something weirdly compelling about this exchange between Fox News' Jenna Lee and Karl Rove today.

After Rove detailed conservative criticism of Newt, host Lee essentially dared him to say Newt's not a conservative.

Rove didn't take the bait, but almost, and you got a sense he was disoriented by it.

Most of all, you get a sense that he a) doesn't want to vouch for Newt's conservatism, which makes Rove seem defensive of Romney.

JENNA LEE: Karl, do you consider yourself a true conservative?

ROVE: Yeah, that's the deal...

LEE: [interrupting] ... Do you? Do you personally think of yourself?

ROVE: Yeah.

LEE: Then do you think Newt Gingrich is a true conservative in your mind?

ROVE: Look, conservatives can disagree with each other, and that's why -- to some degree -- I think it's a mistake for him to try to position himself versus Romney.

I think it's stronger to establish your current conservative bona fides, but he's chosen the way of saying -- this is the what I believe, and it's in contrast to Mitt Romney.

Sometimes it's better to put the emphasis on what you believe; rather than trying to pick an argument, because that raises the question: Well, wait a minute: you say you're more conservative than he is. Well, why were you against Paul Ryan's entitlement reforms, and Romney made a speech in favor of it?

The crux of Rove's argument is whether Newt should set himself up as the anti-Romney. Rove doesn't think he should. I think that's Newt (and anyone else's) only shot.

(Btw, of all the things Romney has been known for this race, it's not entitlement reform. Yet Rove tosses it up as something he's been strong on).

Is Romney getting more unpopular?

Of course.

But that's entirely to be expected.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out -- forwarded merrily by the Democratic National Committee -- showing Mitt Romney's favorable numbers dipping with Republicans in 13 states since the start of 2011.

Here are the caveats.

a. The dip isn't that big. His overall fav rating is now 50%/35%, while it was 54%/25% at the start of 2012.

50% vs. 54% is within a margin of error, so the real news is that his unfavorables have jumped 10%.

b. But here's the deal: 10% isn't that much in the context of a campaign when you're getting hit from all sides.

Candidates nearly always get more unpopular as the race goes on, and especially front-runners who absorb the most heat. Name a candidate that hasn't seen more scrutiny and unfavorable stories since they've risen.

If I were Romney, I wouldn't be too worried about this poll -- there are plenty of other things to keep him up at night -- not the least of which is the disintegration of 9-9-9 and the small momentum by Huntsman in New Hampshire (Also, RomneyCare).

Newt on the move in New Hampshire

A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows that Newt Gingrich has, indeed, tightened things up in Mitt Romney's backyard, frontyard, basement, and Kitchen Stadium -- New Hampshire.

1. Mitt Romney 34%

2. Newt Gingrich 24%

3. Ron Paul 14%

4. Jon Huntsman 11%

As Rasmussen notes, this is the first survey of the state since The Manchester Union-Leader endorsed Gingrich over the weekend.

Btw, you should read Scott Conroy's new piece on Newt's operation in the state. He captures a surge of excitement not seen since... uh, Rick Perry.

The still bare-bones campaign is adding meat daily here with county captains now in place and a growing database of people who want to help.

“It’s frightening but exciting, I’ll tell you,” volunteer coordinator Pam Smith said of the uptick in interest. “Honest to God, they’re just flowing in hand over fist."

One more btw: You know who's Newt's best friend now?

Jon Huntsman.

He at 11% now and probably siphoning off moderates and indies that would otherwise vote for Mitt. That obviously helps Newt.

And you can bet on this -- Huntsman won't drop out if he can show respectably in New Hampshire, if only because he and Romney sort of hate each other.

Report: Cain thinking of dropping out

The National Review:

In a conference call this morning, Herman Cain told his senior staff that he is “reassessing” whether to remain in the race. He told them he will make his final decision “over the next several days.”

There was some initial buzz that said the report was mistaken for merely reassessing staffing issues, but Cain's chief of staff, Mark Block, confirmed to ABC that the reassessment is, indeed, about his candidacy.

Of course, it wouldn't be unprecedented for the Cain team to send out confusing, contradictory statements in the next few hours.

This latest allegation was awfully tough to fight back.

I didn't think there was nearly enough to condemn him in the first series of allegations, but those phone calls to Ginger White are tough to talk away. There isn't just saving a candidacy to think about; there's saving a marriage.

UPDATE: National Review has the full transcript of the conference call, which includes this bit from Cain reacting to the Ginger White allegations.

"Obviously, this is cause for reassessment,” he continued. “As you know, during the summer we had to make some reassessments based upon our financial situation. We were able to hang in there; we reassessed the situation and kept on going. We also did a reassessment after the Iowa straw poll and we made another reassessment after the Florida straw poll.

When the previous two accusations, false accusations, came about, we made another assessment. The way we handled those was, we continued on with our schedule. We made an assessment about what was going to happen to our support. But our supporters, and even some folks that we didn’t have as supporters, they stood with us, and they showed it, not only in terms of their verbal support, they showed it in terms of their dollars.”

“Now, with this latest one, we have to do an assessment as to whether or not this is going to create too much of a cloud, in some people’s minds, as to whether or not they would be able to support us going forth.”

Santorum: I'm the guy you want to marry

Rick Santorum, colorfully pitches himself to the Des Moines Register:

“I may not be the guy that the girls are initially attracted to when they walk into the dance hall, but ultimately once you get to know all the folks, I’m the one you want to take home to Mom.”

Santorum's continually waited to catch fire, but so far, his candidacy has only gone up in smoke.

He's tied with Jon Huntsman for dead last in the RCP average of polls.

Gingrich jumps to big leads in Iowa, South Carolina

Two, new polls have Newt Gingrich vaulting to big leads in the crucial states of Iowa and South Carolina.

Insider Advantage poll of Iowa (pdf).

1. Newt Gingrich 28%

2. Ron Paul 13%

3. Mitt Romney 12%

4. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain 10%

6. Rick Perry 7%

7. Rick Santorum 3%

If Romney's internal polling is finding anything like this, don't expect him to set foot in the state much more.

And theory would say things might just get worse for Mitt. Cain and his 10% seem to be falling and Bachmann's support could very easily drift. Gingrich would seem the likely new home for those drifters.

Insider Advantage poll of South Carolina:

1. Newt Gingrich 38%

2. Mitt Romney 15%

3. Herman Cain 13%

4. Ron Paul 7%

5. Rick Perry 4%

6. Michele Bachmann 3%

7. Rick Santorum 2%

These could be two big outliers, and even if they're not, remember Perry's huge lead in both states, at one point? After all, the RCP average only has Newt up by 8.2% in Iowa; RCP has Newt up by +8.6% in South Carolina.

But theory would also say that Newt's advantage would be more durable, because he's more well-known.

The counter to that is that Gingrich has quite a bit more baggage; therefore, his lead could be more like one of those generic kitchen bags you buy instead of the more reliable Hefty.

Palin fans divided on Reconsider movement

One of the primary voices behind Conservatives4Palin writes an editorial, urging Sarah Palin supporters to cease and desist from the campaign to get her in the race.

Adrienne Ross writes on the site:

while we have the same goal, we don’t always agree on what that looks like. Nothing has made that more clear to me than this Reconsider movement that has surged. Until recently, I have kept my feelings to myself, as I really didn’t want to get caught up in the daily discussions on the topic. However, I will remain silent no more.

.... Conservatives4Palin has been fortunate enough to be considered among the cream of the crop in all things Palin. With that status comes a certain responsibility to act responsibly. As far as I’m concerned, any decision to engage in never-ending Make Palin Reconsider efforts is not acting responsibly, not on the Governor’s behalf and not on behalf of the people who have found us worthy of their time and attention. Therefore, I deem such efforts to be a violation of the trust placed in us. This is why I have chosen to publicly post my perspective on this highly-charged issue.

It's been fascinating to watch reaction to the Palin Reconsider movement. Palin's famously loyal fans have been torn over what true allegiance to Palin means -- does Palin owe America, or does America owe Palin the chance to make her own choices?

Can her fans accept Palin the Person without Palin the Politician?

For such a loyal group, there isn't an easy answer, which is precisely why there's so much emotional division.

Romney picks up key endorsements

The Hill's Cameron Joseph:

Three of Florida's most prominent Cuban-American Republicans have endorsed Mitt Romney, a major boost in the early-primary state.

The endorsements from Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart are huge for the former Massachusetts governor. All three endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and are hard-liners on Cuba.

While we're on the topic of the Partly Cloudy State (I live there for 3 years -- it's not the Sunshine State), the AP has a good read today on how Mitt has Florida all to his own right now.

Almost all of Romney's rivals, on the other hand, acknowledge they're barely thinking about the Sunshine State.

"This race hasn't come to Florida yet," said Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond. Gingrich's first priority is South Carolina, where he's hired nearly a dozen staffers and opened several campaign offices.

"Iowa and New Hampshire and the earliest states are priorities for the governor's time and our campaign," said Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan.

"We felt all along that Iowa was going to be our priority from day number one," said Bachmann spokeswoman Alice Stewart. "As to when and how we campaign in Florida will be decided after the caucuses."

Romney dips below 50% on Intrade

Zeke Miller notes that Intrade is currently rating Mitt Romney below 50% -- down from 70% at the beginning of the month.

To break it down, that means that nearly 1 out of every 2 nomination apples belongs to Romney, while nearly 3 out of every 4 apples belonged to him before.

Newt Gingrich, meanwhile, is at 31%, which means he has nearly 1 out of every 3 apples.

Union-Leader editor "shocked" by surprise over Gingrich endorsement

The New Hampshire Union Leader's editorial page editor, Drew Cline, talking on Fox News this morning about reaction to the paper's endorsement of Newt.

"We weighed the negatives of every candidate, including Gingrich.

We came to the conclusion that this is a guy who could match up well against President Obama, had strong leadership skills, had a very good, positive conservative agenda for the country.

I'm a little surprised at how shocked people were."

I don't think too many were terribly surprised.

Everyone knew that the paper isn't a fan of Romney's, and so it'd make sense that the Union-Leader would endorse the anti-Romney.

Most of the angry reaction came from The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin, who's been accused of essentially being a Romney surrogate this cycle and wrote a blistering op-ed slamming the decision.

Other than that, there wasn't much blowback.

Study: Is the media ignoring Romney?

As usual, Smart Politics trots out a great study.

A Smart Politics week-by-week analysis of ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, and NPR broadcast media transcripts finds that since late June, Mitt Romney has been mentioned in the most reports among the 2012 Republican candidates for just four of these 22 weeks.

And as Smart Politics notes, a reasonable guess is that the media has been focusing attention on whichever new anti-Romney pops up in those weeks.

But here's the stat that validates a fundamental reality.

the perennial GOP frontrunner has been mentioned in the most news reports overall during this five-month span at 3,355.

In other words, he's been the consistent front-runner in the overall arc, which reflects his status as the consistent leader.

Btw, Ron Paul and his backers have complained about being ignored by the media -- which the internals of the study also confirm -- but Romney's relatively weak numbers on a weekly basis suggest this: people just aren't as interested in repeat presidential candidates.

After all, those are the only two retreads from '08.

Gingrich keeps defending illegal immigration position

NBC Ali Weinberg reports from a Newt Gingrich townhall in South Carolina last night.

Gingrich told a packed house at the College of Charleston’s Sottile Theater that he stands by his view that some illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the country, a position for which he’s taken conservative heat since mentioning it at CNN’s foreign policy debate last week.

“Take someone who’s been here for 25 years. They’ve been obeying the law for 25 years, they’ve been paying taxes for 25 years, they’re married, they have 3 kids, 2 grandkids and belong to a church. Do you really think the American people are going to send a policeman to take that person away from their family? I don’t,” Gingrich said.

That's why I don't think illegal immigration stuff is going to hurt Newt like it did Perry -- Gingrich is eloquent at defending himself.

It's sort of like the difference between Henry VIII defending his frequent marriages and Kim Kardashian explaining hers.

Huck: Scandal-weary voters turning to Gingrich

Check out Mike Huckabee's unintentional irony when talking about the Herman Cain allegations last night.

"I think right now the voters will probably be shopping for someone with less trouble, with less controversy, and that's why you've seen Newt Gingrich rise."

Huckabee: New Cain allegations are most serious

Mike Huckabee on Fox News last night, responding to Ginger White's allegation of a 13-year affair with Herman Cain.

"It's a serious charge. The allegation is one that could upend his presidential campaign, and I think that the reaction that he's had to it -- when he said that unlike the harassment charges, which he denied -- he said this was a private matter.

In essence, he may have given an answer that will be very difficult for him to work himself out of.

I think this is the most damaging allegation that has been made to date. No question about it."

Van Susteren thinks Dems should fear Newt

Greta Van Susteren has an interesting theory on why the DNC put out yesterday's vid, bashing Mitt Romney.

"It's funny because I think that they should be more worried about Gingrich in a general than Romney.

I actually was suspicious about whether or not this anti-Romney web ad was payback for something that Governor Romney did to President Obama about a week ago in an web in which there was a misstatement in the ad.

They played an ad in which they said President Obama did something, but if you dig deep, it as President Obama quoting John McCain. So it was a little bit dirty, so I thought it was just payback."

Here's why I'm not buying the theory.

It's not just the anti-Romney ad the DNC put out yesterday; it's the relentless stream of anti-Romney attacks from the DNC, while they stay quiet on Gingrich.

And that relentless stream, obviously, indicates that they're more worried about Mitt than Newt.

Gingrich: I'd support illegal immigration registry

On Fox News last night, Bill O'Reilly floated his idea to Newt Gingrich of dealing with the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.

That is -- set up a window of time wherein the illegal immigrants have to sign up with the government with their name, address, and status.

If they don't and they're later caught, it's a felony.

O'REILLY: Would you support a registration of illegal aliens?

GINGRICH: Yes, I would support a universal registration of those who are here illegally, and I think you'd have immediate deportation if you did not sign up within a certain time.

Just the way you framed it, Bill, I wouldn't support putting them in jail, because I don't want our taxpayers subsidizing them in jail if they're here and not obeying the law, let's get them out.

Evening eats

a. Barney Frank is pumped about a Newt nomination.

b. More shifty shenanigans from the DNC on the anti-Romney ad.

c. The Sarah Palin Reconsider movement will reach the Iowa airwaves.

d. Gingrich/Cain?

e. Mitt Romney gets a huge Wall Street donor.

f. Tim Pawlenty compares Obama to one of the greatest screen characters of all-time.

"Debates are my friend"

That's Herman Cain, after being asked on Fox News today whether there are too many presidential debates.

Bachmann wants to deport millions of illegal immigrants

She calls for doing it "in steps", reports the The Hill's Josh Lederman:

Intent on drawing a clear contrast between rival Newt Gingrich and herself, presidential candidate Michele Bachmann called for 11 million illegal immigrants to be deported from the United States in steps.

.... Asked by radio host Laura Ingraham on Monday about an earlier statement she made differentiating between immigrants who had recently entered the country illegally from those with longstanding ties to the United States, Bachmann said she was never referring to legalization.

"What I'm talking about is the order of deportation, the sequence of deportation," Bachmann replied.

"It is almost impossible to move 11 million illegal immigrants overnight. You do it in steps."

The DNC's phantom buy

It turns out that the DNC's buy on today's anti-Romney ad was only $14K, spread out over five states.

In other words, the committee primarily bought the ads to gin up free media from bloggers (like me) who seized on it, thinking it was more than just a press release and a youtube video.

Gingrich campaign rebukes rivals over immigration

R.C. Hammond, a spokesman for Newt Gingrich, talks to The Washington Post about attacks on his candidate over immigration.

“We were concerned for five seconds but then we realized it is not 2006 and not 2008 when these types of strategies of using code words and politically charged words yielded some short term results,” R.C. Hammond, a Gingrich spokesman said.

“Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney can go out and say this sounds like amnesty, but to voters, they sound like they are pandering.”

Republican strategist, Leslie Sanchez, also has something very important for the presidential candidates and their politically-dangerous rhetoric.

"They can’t use the term illegals,” Sanchez said. “At best it’s undocumented immigrant, at worst it’s illegals and illegal aliens, and both are pejorative and condescending.”

Romney has repeatedly used the term "illegals" this cycle, most notably in this clip via Crooks and Liars.



Btw, read Howard Kurtz's interview with Marco Rubio, where the Hispanic Senator gives his party a primer on how to talk about the issue.

"This is not just a theoretical argument," Rubio told me during a recent visit to his Capitol Hill office, emotion creeping into his voice.

"You’re talking about people’s neighbors, people’s moms, people’s sisters, people’s brothers, their loved ones, maybe their spouse or their children. You know kids that have grown up here their entire lives but are undocumented." His dark eyes flash as he imagines the plight of those who cross the border illegally:

"If your kids are hungry and hurting and living in a dangerous environment, there’s very little you won’t do to help them."

As I've been saying for some time, Romney is threatening a very real opportunity to win Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado this time.

Priebus doesn't mind Romney's flips

The Hill's Justin Sink:

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus defended Mitt Romney against an ad released by the DNC Monday painting the Republican frontrunner as a flip-flopper.

"I think its preposterous to believe that in all of life we don't have the right to change our mind or alter our opinion," Priebus said on the Brian Kilmeade

.... "If I had a thought when I was 18, does that mean I'm married to it for the rest of my life?" Priebus asked.

Perry outspends Romney nearly 300:1

NBC's Mark Murray tweets out some totals.

Rick Perry has spent $2.8 million on TV ads, Ron Paul has forked over $2.1 million, Mitt Romney has dished out only $134K and Herman Cain has served up just $78,900.

NH publisher: Dems would bash Romney's wealth

On Fox News today, the New Hampshire Union Leader's publisher, Joe McQuaid, trotted out another reason for supporting the paper's candidate of choice, Newt Gingrich.

"I think -- and this is crazy, but so are we -- that Gingrich is going to have a better time in the general election than Mitt Romney.

I think it's going to be Obama's 99% versus the 1%, and Romney sort of represents the 1%."

Obviously, McQuaid isn't attacking Romney for being part of the 1%; he's just suggesting the Obama campaign will do so.

Btw, the electability angle is a new one from the paper. In their Sunday endorsement, they didn't mention it.

DNC ad pounds Romney in battlegrounds

The DNC is running the ad highlighting Mitt Romney's flip-flopping in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

Gingrich: I'm the most electable

Besides claiming superior conservative credentials, Newt Gingrich also touted his electability while chatting with a radio station in South Carolina this morning.

"I think anybody who is honest about it says no person is ever perfect," Gingrich said.

"I don't claim to be the perfect candidate, I just claim to be a lot more conservative than Mitt Romney and a lot more electable than anybody else."

So now he, essentially, claims he's more conservative and more electable than Romney.

According to a CNN poll last week, Republicans agree with him on the first claim by 9% over Romney, and disagree with him on the second -- Romney trounces Gingrich on electability by 19%).

Coulter: Don't trust the Union-Leader

Ann Coulter, on Fox today, slamming the New Hampshire Union Leader for endorsing Newt Gingrich.

"The reason the Union Leader has been respected in its endorsements was that it was a solid, conservative newspaper -- back when it was Gerald Ford vs. Ronald Reagan, they went with Reagan, in 1996, they endorsed Pat Buchanan.

That was under a different editor -- that was under William Loeb.

There's a new editor now, and he endorsed John McCain in the last election, so I think this is less about Romney; more about trying to get Obama reelected, 'cause they did a fantastic job in 2008.

I think anybody who supported McCain before he was the actual nominee -- i.e. before the California primary -- should have no say in ever having anything to do with any Republican nominees."

It's more than relevant that Coulter seems to be backing Mitt Romney, whom she said was a "very presentable" and "acceptable nominee".

In fact, she later claimed that Newt's brushes with unorthodoxy were more heretical than Romney's.

"He's [Romney] very different from, for example, John McCain or, I'd say, Newt Gingrich, who not only disagreed with conservatives but announcing to the world how much they disagree with conservatives, sticking their finger in conservatives' eyes.

Well, that isn't Mitt Romney. Okay, he had liberal positions when he was running in Massachusetts -- the most liberal state in the union."

Trump defends Gingrich on immigration

Donald Trump, who maintains some cachet with the tea party, jumped to Newt Gingrich's defense on immigration this morning.

"He's really talking about something where somebody's been in the country for 25 years, they've been educated here, they're really tremendously performing people.

.... The fact is: he's showing a lot of compassion. Now I know both of them, and they're both very, very good people, and I like what Newt is saying, to a certain extent."

Trump then called out Michele Bachmann for attacking Newt over immigration.

"I know Michele, and if you told Michele: 'Go across the street, you see that family -- they've been here, they've been really producers here for this country for 25 years, they're great people, their children are educated, their children are producers -- you go tell that family to get out of here and get into their own country, I don't think she could do it, because she's a good person."

In the wake of the last GOP debate, Bachmann has been accusing Gingrich of supporting amnesty. In reality, Newt has only maintained that he'd like to open the door for some illegal immigrants who've been in the U.S. for 25 or more years and has strenuously denied support for amnesty.

Newt: I'm more conservative than Mitt

Newt Gingrich on South Carolina radio this morning, via CBS' Sarah Huisenga.

"I don’t claim to be the perfect candidate. I just claim to be a lot more conservative than Mitt Romney."

Romney adviser: Endorsement gives Newt boost

Vin Weber, who's advising Mitt Romney's campaign, talks to The Fix about the Union Leader's endorsement of Newt Gingrich.

"I don’t think it changes Romney’s status, but it consolidates Newt’s status as his primary challenger."

It's an interesting concession from Team Romney of the endorsement's value, and also might reflect some satisfaction that Romney's main challenger is Newt.

Weber was with the Pawlenty campaign until T-Paw dropped out.

Newt Tebow

Political strategist, Matt Keelen, on Fox & Friends today.

"I think Newt's on fire today. He's kind of the Tim Tebow of the presidential field."

That's a perfect description of the state of both the GOP race and the NFL season.

Three months ago, people would argue about who sucked more at their position -- Newt or Tim.

But now?

Gingrich is coming off a Drudge headline and three Drudge links yesterday; ESPN leads with the headline "Tebow Mania".

Scarborough: Huntsman is most consistent conservative

Joe Scarborough this morning, showing displeasure with The New Hampshire Union-Leader's endorsement of Newt Gingrich.

"I'll tell you what's wrong with American politics today.

It's the fact that if you took Mitt Romney's statements and positions over the past 20 years, and you took Newt Gingrich's, and you took Jon Huntsman's, and you just read them -- all of their statements, all of their flip-flops.... there's no doubt that last guy right there has the most consistent, conservative record on pro-life, on pro-guns, on immigration, on spending.

And, by the way, people are saying 'Boy, you really are going out of your way to support Jon Huntsman", no, I'm just stating the facts. I'm just talking about the record.

The fact is, of all the candidates in the race right now, there's only one that has supported Paul Ryan's budget plan in total, his medicare plan in total."

Unless you were living under a log or walking the light-lined streets of the little hamlet of New Hope, PA as I was this weekend, you'll know that the Gingrich campaign picked up a major feather in its cap by earning the nod from New Hampshire's most influential conservative paper -- The Union Leader.

As for Scarborough, he and the Morning Joe panel have had nothing but praise for Huntsman since he jumped in (although they ripped his motocross ads), and Scarborough's words today amount to his most pressing plea yet for conservatives to reconsider Huntsman.

Surrogates scarce in 2012

The AP's Holly Ramer:

But this campaign season, surrogates such as Christie have been scarce, in large part because the field of candidates was so slow to develop. Christie, for example, thought of jumping in until October.

“In the past, you would have had full campaign staffs for all the candidates six to eight months out at least, and some campaigns here are still just starting to put boots on the ground,’’ said South Carolina political consultant Luke Byars.

He said aside from the candidates’ wives and adult children, no stand-ins have spoken in his state, though he expects activity will pick up.

Mitt Romney seems to have the highest profile and most active surrogates, as both Chris Christie and Tim Pawlenty have traveled and spoken on his behalf.

Bobby Jindal is a star that's backing Rick Perry, and for awhile, he seemed ready to be a reliable surrogate, but he sort of dropped into the shade after disagreeing with Perry on the DREAM Act.

As for Gingrich, it's Bill Clinton (apparently).

Ad reveals angst over top candidates

Here's something interesting I came across while browsing Newsmax's site -- an ad that teases by promising to let you opt out of choosing the GOP front-runners.

If you click on the ad, you're sent to a Newsmax survey about whom you'd choose for the nomination; then a signup to give your email address.

But the big take-away is this: In a field that's now effectively whittled down to the top 2, there's an assumption that quite a few users don't like either, and the promise of choosing "neither" is as enticing as picking Newt or Mitt.

Clinton praises Gingrich, Romney

I'm way late to this (Hope you had a marvelous Thanksgiving, by the way), but in an interview with Newsmax, Bill Clinton continued heaping praise on the '12 Republican field.

First, about Newt Gingrich.

"He's [emerging] because of his performance in the debates. It's not any traditional charisma, it's that he thinks about this stuff all the time. He's articulate, and he tries to think of a conservative version of an idea that will solve a legitimate problem.

For example, last night -- I watched the National Security Debate last night, and Newt said two things that would make an independent voter say 'Well, I gotta consider him'."

As for whether Newt can actually win, Clinton is less sure, and that's because he still think Mitt Romney is formidable.

"I still think Romney comes across as strong and forceful and knowledgeable and I think that -- I thought that Perry had a better debate last night. He did much better than he's been doing.

.... I think Gingrich is back in the race because he spent a lot of time thinking about these things."

Clinton has had quite a bit to say about the field during this cycle -- most of it good.

In June, he called Romney Version 3.0 much improved.

"Governor Romney's doing a better job as a candidate this time than he did four years ago.

He comes across as more relaxed and more convicted about what he did do. Less willing to just be forced into apologizing for it [health care]."

He also liked Huntsman.

"I think he's quite an impressive man. He's refreshingly, kind of, unhide-bound, comes across as non-ideological -- conservative, but non-ideological. Practical."

Gave Bachmann props for overachieving.

"I'm not surprised by how well Michele Bachmann's done. I've been watching her speak. She comes across as a real person. All those foster children she's taken in, the children who she's raised, the work she's done."

And, perhaps most famously and least substantively, he called Rick Perry a "good-looking rascal" when Governor Goodhair jumped in the race.

Evening eats

a. Steve King isn't happy with Newt on immigration.

b. Latinos start criticizing Romney's immigration rhetoric.

c. Can Newt win the center?

d. Jimmy Fallon apologizes to Bachmann.

Michael Reagan defends Newt on immigration.

Rove: Gingrich faces "indigestion" on immigration

On Fox News today, Karl Rove responded to Newt Gingrich's controversial remarks on immigration in the GOP debate last night.

"I think Newt is not going to drop like a stone, but I think Newt recognizes -- this in western Iowa -- is going to cause him some indigestion among some voters.

But again look, you're never going to get everybody to agree with you on every thing, every time, and the question is: How much fall-out is there going to be, and how many people are going to be swayed by saying it's a reasonable answer?"

Gingrich has been getting hammered today by Mitt Romney over his immigration comments, which Romney claims, open the door to amnesty.

Newt said he favored a pathway to legal status for some long-time undocumented immigrants.

"I don't see how the party that says it's the party of the family is going to adopt an immigration policy which destroys families which have been here a quarter-century,"

Romney starts ripping Gingrich on immigration

The Des Moines Register, covering a Mitt Romney event with reporters in Iowa today.

Newt Gingrich “offered a new doorway to amnesty” during a debate Tuesday night when he said he would not deport families that have lived peacefully in the country for 25 years or longer, Mitt Romney said in Iowa today.

“I know there’s going to be great interest in finding how far we can apply amnesty, and I just think we make a mistake as a Republican Party to try to describe which people who come here illegally should be given amnesty to be able to jump ahead of the line of people who have been waiting in line,” Romney told reporters at a campaign stop in Des Moines.

Hey, if the tact worked at help knocking Perry out of the primary, why not try using it to knock Gingrich out of the primary, too? Only problem is if Mitt knocks himself out of the general with it.

Gingrich still leads in Iowa

American Research Group doesn't have the most sterling reputation, but its new poll confirms others showing Newt Gingrich on top in Iowa.

1. Newt Gingrich 27%

2. Mitt Romney 20%

3. Ron Paul 16%

4. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and Rick Santorum 6%

7. Jon Huntsman 3%

Newt is killing it with tea party supporters, beating Romney by 31% there.

Gingrich is currently holding a 1.8% lead in the RCP average of polls in Iowa.

Ed Rollins: Bachmann was "great" at debate

Michele Bachmann's former campaign manager, Ed Rollins, praises his ex-boss' debate performance last night.

"She was great.

She's a very smart lady. She knows the issues very, very well. I thought she had a good performance, and obviously, it may help her somewhat in Iowa."

Ever since splitting ways, the two have feuded like the Hatfield and McCoy's (modern day equivalent: Politico and Daily Caller; Steelers and Ravens; Justin Beiber and Mariah Yeater).

Huntsman: I don't know if Dad funded ads

The Hill's Justin Sink:

Jon Huntsman said Wednesday that he had not seen the ad recently released by the pro-Huntsman Our Destiny PAC in New Hampshire, and did not know whether his father had helped fund the $650,000 ad buy in New Hampshire.

"He's my dad, he's my best friend, he can do whatever he wants to do, we don't talk about those things, we can't," Huntsman said on CNN. "I'm just delighted we got some outside assistance from wherever it might come from that believes in our cause."

Here's the ad in question, which was accompanied with a nearly $1.5 million buy in New Hampshire.



Huntsman's dad, of course, started a billion dollar chemical company, which was the subject of a great exchange between Colbert and Huntsman earlier this year.

COLBERT: I'm part of the 1%. You're part of the 1%.

HUNTSMAN: How do you know?

COLBERT: I read your bio. Someone has a chemical company.

Gingrich gets most face time

One of the best joints around -- Smart Politics -- has another great, overnight contribution to the dialogue.

A Smart Politics content analysis of the Constitution Hall debate finds that, for the first time this debate season, Newt Gingrich notched the most speaking time on the GOP stage.

Gingrich clocked in Tuesday at 12 minutes and 8 seconds, or 16.1 percent of the total speaking time recorded by the eight 2012 Republican White House hopefuls.

Here's the leaderboard.

Herman Cain might be so low -- despite being a front-runner -- because it doesn't take too long to say the words "advisers" or "commanders on the ground."

1. Newt Gingrich 16.1%

2. Mitt Romney 15.3%

3. Rick Perry 14.5%

4. Ron Paul 13.3%

5. Michele Bachmann 12.5%

6. Rick Santorum 10.6%

7. Jon Huntsman 10.2%

8. Herman Cain 7.5%

Newt vs. Romney

Jonah Goldberg secures it with gold-plated nails (ea).

Romney looks like the picture that comes with the frame.

Gingrich looks like he should be ensconced in royal velvet as he gestures at you with a half-eaten turkey leg in one hand and a sloshing goblet of wine in the other.

Romney seems terrified of fully committing to any idea.

Gingrich speaks as if he just text-messaged with God.

Will Palin endorse Newt?

I made the case yesterday, and Scott Conroy makes the more complete argument today.

Gingrich has been particularly effusive in expressing his admiration for Palin over the last few months, and she has returned the favor by heaping praise on the former House speaker.

"Newt Gingrich again, I think, did the best because he seems to be above a lot of the bickering that goes on," Palin said on Fox News after a Republican debate in Las Vegas last month, adding that Gingrich would “clobber” President Obama in a general election debate.

But like any good Navy Seal operation (or Call of Duty mission) , timing is important to achieve maximum impact.

Palin and her advisers have in recent weeks discussed when her endorsement might have the greatest impact on the race, but the timing remains undetermined.

But Palin would likely have the biggest influence if she were to back a candidate before the Iowa caucuses. Her still considerable clout with the evangelical and Tea Party-leaning wings of the party could have a particularly significant impact in Iowa and in the first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina.

And here was Newt, after being asked in October if he'd like Palin's endorsement:

"Oh, sure. I think any candidate would like to have her endorsement, but I don't expect her to jump in in the near future.

She is a citizen in her own right, she is a force in her own right, and I think that she will have an impact by talking out on issues, by talking out on specific things.

Obviously, I think any of the candidates would love to have her become an active part of her campaign, because she has so many followers who really listen to her and pay attention to her."