In my weekly column, I take a look at Newt Gingrich's main argument for electability (his skill at debates) and wonder whether it'll be that big a deal.
Seven debates is a pipe dream
There’s nary a soul alive who thinks Obama will actually answer Gingrich’s challenge and commit to seven three-hour debates. That’s unprecedented in modern history.
Plus, the commission on presidential debates has already announced its 2012 schedule, and it features three meet-ups, similar to the way debates worked in 2008.
Besides, which network would award the candidates seven hours of primetime TV?
So, on that score, Republicans probably shouldn’t pin too many hopes on Gingrich.
General-election debates don’t matter too much
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, explains why general-election debates aren’t nearly as influential to the final outcome as primary debates.
In the primary debates, “all the candidates are Republicans and the vast majority of voters are Republicans. Therefore, it is easier to transfer support via a debate from one Republican to another,” he said.
Meanwhile, in the general-election debates, “over 90 percent of the voters have a partisan ID, even if it is hidden. Changing from Democrat to Republican or Republican to Democrat is quite a jump.”
Dartmouth Professor Brendan Nyhan, a New York Times best-seller and media critic, agrees with the sentiment and claims that “the importance of debates tends to be overemphasized by journalists trying to construct dramatic narratives.”
And there’s one more reason why general-election debates are likely to be less important than the primary duels. Over the course of the general, there will probably be three debates. So far, there have been 18 primary debates. Consequently, debate performances will be far fresher in people’s minds during the primaries.
Gingrich’s debating skills are overrated
Brad Phillips, the president of Phillips Media Relations and author of the Mr. Media Training blog, thinks Gingrich’s style won’t play when he’s trying to sell general-election voters on his candidacy — and nowhere will that be more evident than in the debates.
“Since the beginning of the 24/7 media age in 1980, the sunnier and more optimistic candidate has won all eight general elections,” Phillips points out.
Indeed, the list of losers is littered with the gloomy and doomy — Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, George H.W. Bush in 1992, Al Gore, John Kerry and John McCain.
Gingrich errs on the side of the irascible; indeed, Sabato notes, one voter left the polling booth in South Carolina saying, “I think we need somebody mean.”
And finishing:
More than any other candidate in modern history, he’s wooed Republicans through the hope of making Obama sweat on the stage.
Should Republicans sweat that promise?
