Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Romney, Gingrich locked in Florida

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows a close race in Florida -- with a big divide emerging between voters before and after South Carolina.

Three days of polling BEFORE South Carolina:

1. Mitt Romney 37%

2. Newt Gingrich 26%

3. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul 15%

Two days of polling AFTER South Carolina:

1. Newt Gingrich 40% (Corrected).

2. Mitt Romney 34%

3. Rick Santorum 13%

4. Ron Paul 10%

A few more stats.

a. Gender gap.

It persists. Women like Romney by 7%; men like Newt by 4%.

b. Evangelicals like Newt.

He currently downs Mitt by 21% there.

c. Tea party goes Newt.

He tops Romney by 15%; Romney beats him by 12% among non-tea partiers.

d. Education gap.

Those with a college degree back Romney by 9%. Those without a degree go for Newt by 3%.

e. Income.

The most interesting result, by far. Romney leads Newt by 5% among those making $30K or less and those making $30K-$50K. In other words, the poorer set goes Romney.

Gingrich rocks the house with those making $50K-$100K, beating Romney by 10%.

Meanwhile, Romney retakes the lead with the $100K+ group, beating Newt by 8%.

So, at least in the Republican primary, the "out-of-touch" Romney is faring just fine with the poor (must be that laundry photo...)

f. Fav Ratings.

Romney is strong at +52% among Republicans, while Newt is at a less illustrious, +35%.

That's a pretty nice gap for Mitt.

g. Foreign policy.

Gingrich knocks Romney around by 27% on this one.

h. Dealing with a crisis.

If the Yankees win a World Series, voters think Newt would do a better job managing the crisis by 15% over Mitt.

i. Experience and knowledge to be president.

Once again, Gingrich bests Romney by 19%.

j. Strong leader.

Republicans give Newt a 6% advantage on Romney.

k. Sharing values.

Here, Romney is tied with Santorum and leads Gingrich by 9%. I'm assuming this is the moral characteristic test and no, Newt, it looks like your sins don't make you more relatable.

l. Caring about your problems.

Once again, the out-of-touch Mitt ties Gingrich and has a pretty good showing.

m. Competent.

Gingrich beats Romney by 3% on this question.

n. Being inspiring.

Newt leads Romney by 10% -- a number that I actually thought might be higher, considering their rhetorical styles (Newt, as I've said, is a Romantic painter; Romney draws the art on U-Hauls).

o. Trustworthy.

Romney beats Gingrich by 16%. I'm not sure if that means trustworthy in a business or a personal (or both) sense. That'd seem to be a big difference. Mitt has flip-flopped a lot, but seems to be a man of great constancy in his personal life.

p. Electability.

This is still the key question, and Mitt beats Newt by 14%. Further, by 8% voters want electability more than someone who shares their values.

q. The Economy.

Romney leads Gingrich by 17%; so on the biggest two questions, Mitt still retains the lead.