What we learned from New Hampshire

Couple early Wednesday thoughts on the New Hampshire primary.

1. The End?

Have I blogged about this race for three years only to see Mitt Romney sew up on the nomination in New Hampshire?

Sure, he was always supposed to win there, right? Then why does the nomination seem sewn up if we all knew this night would happen months in advance?

I think it's because how he won and against whom he won (Santorum in Iowa, and Paul in New Hampshire) and the fragmentation therein.

And face it, even if you merge the fragments, there's nobody who seems strong enough to fell Mitt.

2. Can the media really face a nomination that ends on January 21?

To borrow from a popular song, What's a 24/7 news cycle supposed to do? Right now we might already be at the point where in 2008 Hillary was waiting for some horrendous scandal to hit Obama so she could step in.

It sounds silly to say that after just two primaries, but each successive day wakes up to a stronger Romney. It's going to be really hard to carrying on a convincing narrative that someone from this current field can knock out Romney.

That wouldn't be the case if my next point wasn't true...

3. Gingrich's huge challenge.

Sisyphus who?

Plainly put -- the establishment and grassroots are both fundamentally, deeply angry at him for his Bain attacks.

For example, I can't think of anyone who oozes establishment more than Romney surrogate, John Sununu.

Everything about him. In fact, if I were Bruno Mars, I'd write a song about "His curls, his glasses, you can see the light refracting from them", and it would be something about an old New England Republican liking Sununu just the way he is.

Sure, again, he's a Mitt surrogate, but you have the pinnacle of establishment, Sununu, and the uber-grassroots Rush Limbaugh both attacking Newt. That's indicative of just how broadly disliked he's become.

And here's why: It's not because Gingrich is hammering Romney. It's because he's doing it from the Left. He needs to attack Mitt from the Right. That's where Romney's vulnerable. Remember, RomneyCare, global warming etc.?

But I suspect there's a calcifying effect that's making it an increasingly untenable line against Romney -- everyone knows about his flip-flops and past sins against orthodoxy, but they've grudgingly accepted that it's better than the alternatives. The flip-flops are old news.

4. Santorum erred in making a play at New Hampshire.

Just call him Icarus. He overestimated his appeal, got swept up in the media euphoria, and went and ran in a state that rejected a much superior Huckabee in 2008.

But here's where you have to cut Santorum slack -- even if he pulled in 18% in South Carolina after camping out there, he wasn't going to do much after that.

As I've written so many times, he was a phantom front-runner after Iowa, and one that the GOP establishment loved.

Let me explain, because I'm seeing this again and against from the establishment: By trumpeting Santorum, the establishment is setting Mitt up against his easiest foe.

That's obvious. But the hidden benefit is that the establishment can make friends with Santorum as a way of appeasing the angry grassroots.

Look, we weren't against Newt and Perry because they were threats to Mitt. We were against them because they were bad. Santorum is good, and we praise him. Therefore, we're just like you.

In other words, Santorum is the establishment's olive branch to the grassroots.

5. Fred Thompson is a happy man.

After scoring less than a percent in New Hampshire and crashing in Iowa, Rick Perry replaces Fred Thompson as the most overrated Southern candidate of all-time (except for Phil Gramm).

But considering all the money Rudy Giuliani raised, it's still an open question as to how Perry stacks up against his good buddy, Rudy, for worst crash in the past 20 years.

6. Jon Huntsman will never be a factor in 2016.

You're starting to hear some people say he's still trying to set himself up for '16.

Baloney.

If he couldn't win in this historically weak field, with this desperation for an alternative candidate, with this push from the media, and with this much time in New Hampshire, he won't get a dollar's worth of donations from bundlers and big-wigs in 2016.

Plus, Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Jeb, and Nikki Haley might be running in '16. If Huntsman can't beat Ron Paul, how can he beat any of the,.

Finally, here are the New Hampshire primary results with 95% reporting as of 1:50 AM.

1. Mitt Romney 39.4%

2. Ron Paul 22.8%

3. Jon Huntsman 16.8%

4. Newt Gingrich 9.4%

5. Rick Santorum 9.3%

6. Rick Perry .7%

7. Michele Bachmann .1%