Thursday, February 16, 2012

Gingrich gunning for 15% in Michigan

Newt Gingrich sets the bar for Michigan on Fox News.

You have to break 15 percent. It's a proportional representation state. I think we will do that. So I think we will pick up delegates in Michigan.

And my prediction is that if Mitt Romney goes and attacks Santorum as negatively as he attacked me in Florida and elsewhere, that what you're going to see is he'll peel votes off Santorum, but they're going to come to me. They're not going to go to Romney.

Candidates often set low bars so they can then exceed expectations (or if you're Jon Huntsman, exceed "market expectations" ala New Hampshire), but Gingrich's bar is kind of ambitious.

He's currently at 10% in the RCP average of Michigan polls and is trending slightly downward.

In the Wise, Cinematic New Age Mentor tradition, I will present two paths forward for Newt on his journey through the land of ice.

1. Gingrich could keep falling, thanks to increasing irrelevance in the state.

2. Voters turned off by the forthcoming killing season between Rick and Mitt could migrate to Newt's camp (as he suggested).