Romney loses big

Tuesday night didn't matter electorally or mathematically.

But it was embarrassing.

The Romney campaign keeps talking about how John McCain didn't win all the states, either etc., That's true.

But John McCain lost states to Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

Romney is losing states to Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. That's a huge difference. These losses are almost exclusively about Mitt and have very little to do with his opponents.

In fact, Romney's opponents are winning in spite of themselves. That's really hard to do -- underdogs winning, in spite of themselves.

And Mitt is doing worse in some of these states than he did in 2008 against a much stronger field.

Right now, questions abound if ever they did abound -- Has Mitt Romney's time passed? Did he ever actually have a time? Can Rick Santorum win the nomination? Can he become president? Would his inauguration speech last 6 hours? Which of Romney's sons will take up politics and be haunted by the spectre of his dad's presidential runs?

Well, here are a few brief-takeaways.

a. Romney is still the clear front-runner.

If you think Mitt might lose, task yourself with this exercise. Come up with a credible path to the nomination for Santorum or Gingrich. On nights like this, it's easy to suddenly imagine Romney disintegrating like the Ottoman Empire.

But only when you see how hard it will be for his opponents to win... can you see how easy it still is for Mitt.

I don't mean "easy" as in "effort", but "easy" as in probability.

That being said, I do see one way Romney could lose, and it's not with Santorum or Gingrich headlining Tampa. It's with the GOP being so freaked out about Santorum or Gingrich that someone new arises -- either on the way to Tampa or once there -- and everyone can cheer for Jeb Bush and go home happy.

But that's very remote, and that's because it's still remote that Romney will lose.

He has every advantage that he had coming into tonight -- money, organization, and a few big wins (Florida, chiefly) to his credit.

And he leaves with those things, plus the bad things that everyone already knew he had -- trouble with the base.

Yes, this was embarrassing, but has the fundamental dynamic really changed?

After tonight, we can safely say -- Romney is the front-runner but a weak candidate. Didn't we already know that?

b. Don't call Gingrich dead.

His obits are being written and sung across the land, but remember, he did this whole dying thing on us twice and then came back.

Imagine this -- Romney and Santorum rip each other apart over the next few weeks, while Newt talks with beautiful flourishes about "big solutions and big ideas", focuses on Obama, and then caps it off with an epic February 22 debate performance.

You know it can happen. If Santorum could happen, Newt's third comeback certainly could.

c. The Santorum Boom.

I'll admit missing this one completely, and it's the second huge error of the cycle that's called into question my grasp of the rhythm and blues of this presidential primary.

First, I never thought Herman Cain would jump beyond 1%. Then 2%. Even when he was at 23%, I never thought he'd get above 1%.... if that math makes any sense.

Regardless, I never really thought that he could be a front-runner for a major political party's nomination, and completely underestimated his appeal. Shame on me.

Santorum is far more eloquent, experienced, and honorable than Cain in nearly every way, but I have the same nagging doubts: I just can't imagine a guy with as little presidential presence as Santorum becoming a major party's standard bearer. I offer you no more sophisticated analysis than that. It's shallow and simple, yet somehow right -- like how you feel when you laugh at the 3 Stooges.

Having said that, he'll serve as a perfectly spirited challenger for Romney the rest of the way, and comfortingly -- unlike Cain -- this underdog will have earned it.

d. Don't believe the hype about Michigan and Arizona.

Have you seen the most recent polls there? Romney is up by double-digits in both states, and Michigan is one of his twelve (or something) adopted home states.

This will not be the epic showdown the Romney campaign will try to frame it as. Romney will win and he should win.

But two factors are at work on this one, conspiring against Mitt's luckless campaign.

First, everyone kind of dismisses states that we know are going to be blowouts.

Second, everyone particularly dismisses those blow-out states when they buttress Romney's status as front-runner. The only thing more boring than "Expected, Blowout win" is "Front-Runner wins Expected Blow Out."

So really, according to the logic of the media, the only thing that doesn't really matter is a front-runner winning states he should. But, in reality, that's how you win the nomination -- a front-runner wins states he should! That's what should matter!

This is how these grandiose claims about Santorum contending for the nomination get started -- suddenly, winning a few caucus, low-turnout states becomes more important than winning Florida and having a zillion dollars.

Consequently, Michigan and Arizona will only matter, mathematically -- Romney will win them, we'll all say "meh, he was supposed to win" and then we'll all turn to Ohio (actually, we'll already have been talking about Ohio for weeks).

And yes, let's start. Ohio could be epic. Santorum's claim to be a Midwestern icon will be tested, Gingrich will pound the working man pavement, and Romney will try to prove he can appeal to voters in a blue collar state that Republicans ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO WIN in the general election.

Ohio will be a brilliantly fun battle, and I am pleased that LeBron James' endorsement will mean nothing.

As of 1:13 AM, here are the results of Tuesday night:

MISSOURI:

1. Rick Santorum 55%

2. Mitt Romney 25%

3. Ron Paul 12%

MINNESOTA:

1. Rick Santorum 45%

2. Ron Paul 27%

3. Mitt Romney 17%

COLORADO is still too close to call (UPDATE -- and now the AP has called it for Santorum).

Oh, and as someone who's blogged day and night about the race for three years, this screencap is totally surreal.