Monday, March 19, 2012

Another poll shows Romney cruising in Illinois

For the second time in 24 hours, a poll shows Mitt Romney with a double-digit lead in Illinois.

American Research Group:

1. Mitt Romney 44%

2. Rick Santorum 30%

3. Newt Gingrich 13%

4. Ron Paul 8%

Here's one of the more interesting numbers -- Romney's 13% lead with expected primary day voters nearly matches his 15% lead in early voting.

A fairly typical pattern we've seen this cycle is Romney romping in early voting (when name ID means more), but Santorum cutting the gap in later voting.

That kind of volatility doesn't look good for Romney's argument for electability, but if this Illinois number holds up, it's a sign that he was strong from start-to-finish in the state.

One more key?

Romney actually leads Santorum by 6% among tea partiers. If that's really the case, Romney can plan an early victory speech tomorrow evening

A Public Policy Polling survey released Sunday night also showed Mitt with a 15% lead over Rick.