Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Quinnipiac: Obama beats Romney in key swing states

Quinnipiac University has some good news for Barack Obama, arriving in the form of three polls of the biggest battleground states.

FLORIDA: Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 42%

OHIO: Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 41%

PENNSYLVANIA: Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 42%

a. The Economy. The good news for Romney is that the economy is still the overriding concern, and Romney beats Obama on the economy in Florida (+3%) and Pennsylvania (+6%), and ties him in Ohio.

The bad news for Romney is that over 50% in all three states say the economy is getting better. That's a very good number for Obama.

b. Romney's favs. In Florida, he's at +5%, but it falls narrowly into negative territory in both Ohio and (-7%) and Pennsylvania (-1%).

Revenge of the working class?

c. Obama's key numbers. In all three states, he has positive favorable ratings. Don't underestimate the importance of fav numbers. The likable guy tends to get the most votes.

Having said that, Obama's approval rating is slightly underwater in the three states, and he doesn't hit 50% in head-to-head matchups with Romney. That's worse news for the POTUS.

But then there's this -- voters in Florida think he should he deserves reelection (3%), they're split on the question in Ohio, and voters in Pennsylvania think he doesn't deserve reelection by 4%.

Interestingly enough, Romney does better in PA than the other states, which makes sense considering Obama's reelect numbers there.

d. Enthusiasm. Now... this is surprising. More voters in all three states say they're more enthusiastic than less enthusiastic about voting for president in 2012 than they were in 2008.

Shouldn't that favor Romney?

e. Independents. In Florida, they back Obama by 10% over Romney. In Ohio, Obama beats Romney by 4%. In Pennsylvania, though, Romney has a 1% lead with indies.

f. Evangelicals. Mitt doesn't need to worry that they won't come home. In Florida, he has a 54% advantage over Obama with them. Santorum has a 53% lead. No measurable difference.

In Ohio, evangelicals favor Romney over Obama by 28%; Santorum wins by 29%. No measurable difference.

In Pennsylvania, Romney has a 45% edge over Obama. Santorum has a 50% advantage.

The upshot is that Mitt does as well as Rick with this group, and the hype about not connecting with evangelicals doesn't seem to be a problem for the general election.