Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Rove: Tonight's "magic number" is 29

On Fox News, Karl Rove says Mitt Romney has to win over 29 delegates in Illinois to overperform.

"The question is gonna be -- how big a majority does Romney have among the delegates?

He's won, thus far, in the contest 54% of all the delegates collected. That would mean 29 is the magic number. If he wins 29, then he's won roughly 54% of Illinois' delegates. If he wins above that, he's increasing his margin and making it more difficult for Santorum to win.

If he's less than that, then Santorum's picking up a little bit on him."

In lieu of a close race, junkies have to search for smaller game in interpreting the night. Exit polls of demographic groups, small shifts in delegates, and -- of course -- whether a candidate's election night speech runs one minute too long (suggesting problems with self-discipline) or one minute too short (suggesting problems with enthusiasm).