Friday, April 20, 2012

Fox News poll: Obama leads Romney in Ohio

A new poll shows somewhat less salubrious numbers for Mitt Romney in Ohio, which is generally considered a must-win for Republicans.

In the Fox News survey, Barack Obama tops Romney, 45%-39%, and holds a key edge in some important areas.

a. Indies back Obama by 7%, although the undecided margin is high.

b. Obama's voters primarily support him because they like him; not because they're anti-Romney. Meanwhile, by +34%, Mitt's backers say they're voting against Obama; not for Romney. The question is which is a stronger motivator -- love or anger. The Count of Monte Cristo would say the latter; Mother Teresa the former.

c. Romney actually led Obama by 6% in February, which means the POTUS has jumped +12% in two months. That being said, it also shows lots of volatility in the race.

d. Obama's approval rating is an underwhelming 46%/47%.

e. Romney's fav rating with independents is an awful -24%. Obama's is -3%.

f. Good news for Romney? The most excited demographic poll is the tea party. 50% say they're "extremely interested" in the '12 election, and Mitt holds a 58% lead with the group. Republicans are also more likely (+12%) to say they're "extremely interested" than Democrats, which is also bodes well for Romney.

UPDATE: I don't know how I missed it, but Obama also leads in Florida, 45%-43%.