Tuesday, April 3, 2012

PENNSYLVANIA: Santorum holds on


Quinnpiac's new poll shows Rick Santorum sporting a modest lead among likely GOP voters in Pennsylvania.

1. Rick Santorum 41%

2. Mitt Romney 35%

3. Ron Paul 10%

4. Newt Gingrich 7%

So what's going on in Pennsylvania?

Pretty much what went on in every Midwestern state, except Santorum's numbers are slightly exaggerated, which gives him the lead.

Rick is up with men (+10%), evangelicals (+29%), tea party members (+18%), and self-described conservatives (+18%), and those without a college degree (+17%).

(Interestingly, Romney wins by 16% among those with a degree, while Santorum is +17% among those without one).

A big number, though, that probably bodes well for Mitt? 37% of likely primary voters say they might change their mind, and usually, Restore Our Future changes it for people. Santorum's saving grace might be that he's so well-known in the state that Restore Our Future can't turn him into quite the devil it usually does.

The state votes on April 24, which gives Romney about three more weeks of inevitability stories to woo the undecided.