Friday, April 13, 2012

Romney strong in key age group

I'm way late to the Fox News poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama, 46%-44%, but wanted to point out an interesting internal.

Romney currently leads Obama by 9% with those aged 35-54.

Why's that important? In the 2008 election, Obama won 30-44 year-olds and 45-64 year-olds. In fact, the only age group John McCain won were seniors.

But, according to this Fox poll, Romney is doing very well with younger to middle-aged voters, but Obama is overperforming his 2008 numbers with seniors. Barack ties Mitt at 45% (by contrast, McCain won this group by 8%). Obama also, predictably, wins voters under age 35.

Moral of the story? Older voters will play a huge role this time, and while they're probably predisposed toward Romney, the White House can exploit the Paul Ryan-connection to stoke senior unease.