COLORADO: Dead heat

A new NBC/Marist poll (pdf) shows a closer race in Colorado than expected, with Barack Obama holding a small 44%-42% lead over Mitt Romney.

Obviously, both campaigns have been spending money in Colorado, but you get the sense that it's Obama's to lose in much the same way that both candidates have been spending in North Carolina, but you get the sense NC is Romney's to lose.

Shorter way of saying that is...

Obama in Colorado = Romney in North Carolina

All right, moving on to the poll.

a. Obama's job approval is 45%/49%. That's a troubling number for a president who's counting on winning the state. Of course, it's possible to win with a 45% approval number, but it will force him to play defense.

b. WRONG Track: 56% think things are going off track, while only 38% think things are going in the right direction.

Here's a contradictory beef. Most voters think the country is going on the wrong track, but 54% say the worst of the economy is behind us.

Of course, once way to square that circle is noting the economy isn't the country, but you'd still think those two numbers would agree with each other a little more closely.

c. Dead-even favs.

Obama has a 47%/47% fav rating, while Romney has a 43%/43% fav rating.

d. The economy.

Romney leads, 45%-42%.

e. Social issues.

Obama leads, 48%-41%, but 74% are more likely to vote on the economy than social issues.

f. Foreign policy.

Once again, an area of relative strength for the president, as he nukes Romney, 47%-39%.

g. National debt.

And yet again, Romney comes up roses here, leading 50%-37%.

h. Relatability.

Obama leads, 49%-40%, on empathy.

UPSHOT: While the numbers are slightly different, Colorado has the same breakdown as Iowa: Romney leads on the economy and debt, while Obama leads on foreign policy and personality issues.

That makes for a tight race. The difference might lie in the demographics, which are trending Obama's way.