As shown by NBC/Marist's poll today, Virginia is a tough proposition for Mitt Romney and that means getting to 270 electoral votes is a tough proposition.
But... here's one way he could lose VA and still win the election.
a. Win states that will be easily flippable: Indiana and North Carolina.
b. Win the tossup that leans Romney: Florida.
c. Win the genuine tossups: Ohio and New Hampshire.
Those states are all doable flips from 2008 for Romney, but it's all meaningless if he loses Virginia.
Somehow he'd have to recoup Virginia's 13 electoral votes. So where does he look? Colorado and Nevada are both looking less likely, and New Mexico is a pipe dream that even the Mario Brothers would take a pass on.
That leaves one option -- Flip Wisconsin and Iowa.
Remember, Wisconsin was unbelievably close in 2000 and 2004. Gore won by 5,000 votes and Kerry won by 11,000 votes. Iowa backed Bush in 2004.
Both states are doable for Romney (In the most recent survey of Wisconsin, Mitt and Barack were tied).
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, Iowa has 6, which makes a total of 16 -- that's three more than Virginia's 13.
Voila.
Here's the map I put together by using the site, www.270towin.com.
Romney = 273
Obama = 265