It's all tied up in Iowa

A new NBC/Marist poll (pdf) shows Mitt Romney and Barack Obama locked in Iowa, 41%-41%.

That fits with the fact that we've seen quite a bit of Iowa buys already, and it also fits with the idea that Obama is extremely vulnerable there. 41% for an incumbent? To be slightly obvious, that's way closer to the anemic 40% than the 50% threshold for an incumbent.

Key internals.

a. Obama's approval rating is 46%/45%. Not bad enough to suggest a loss, not good enough to suggest a win.

b. Wrong Track: Another bad number for the incumbent. Only 39% think the country is on the right track, while 54% says it's a runaway train.

c. Favs are essentially tied.

Obama is at a +3% favorable rating (48%/45%); Romney is at 43%/43%.

d. Economy.

Mitt leads on this crucial measure, 46%/41%.

e. Social issues.

Obama with the slight 45%/43% edge (btw, one of the misconceptions of Iowa is that it's a socially conservative state. GOP caucus goers are, but there's a strong strain of social liberalism in the state, as well).

Also, by 71%-22%, voters say the economy will be more important to their vote than social issues.

BUT... 55% say the worst of the economy is behind them -- good news for Obama.

f. Foreign policy.

Obama holds a commanding 50%/36% lead. Despite accusations that he's weak, apologetic, meek, and mild, foreign policy has consistently been Obama's strongest area.

g. The Debt.

Voters pick Romney on the debt, 52%/34%. This is consistently Romney's strongest advantage over Obama, and perhaps, one of the reasons why he's talking about it more and more.

h. Caring.

According to voters, Obama better understands the problems of everyday people, 50%-38%.

Upshot: These numbers are pretty similar to those in most battleground states -- Romney leads on the economy and debt (fiscal stuff), while Obama leads on foreign policy and personality.