OHIO: Obama, Romney locked

A new Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio shows Barack Obama with a 44%-42% lead over Mitt Romney.

That represents a 4% gain for Romney since March.

Key internals (all of these are available in Quinnipiac's downloadable table at the end of the release).

a. Party bases are united; Romney carries independents.

Obama has an 84%-7% lead with Democrats, Romney an 89%-4% lead with Republicans and a 43%-38% advantage with independents.

Note that 38% indies number for Obama. He's way shy of 50%.

b. Gender gap.

It's much bigger here than in Florida, standing at 23%. Romney wins men by 10%; Obama wins women by 13%.

And fav numbers are very different in Ohio, as well. Obama has a +16% favorability advantage with women; whereas, in Florida, Romney actually had a +3% lead on fav with women.

c. Education gap.

It's lower than normal. Obama and Romney are tied at 45% among those with a college degree, while Obama leads by 3% with those who don't have one.

d. Income.

Obama leads in the bottom two income groups, while Romney leads in the top two.

e. Indies like Romney better.

His fav rating with this important demo is -1%. while Obama's number is -9%.

So, if indies look at Romney more favorably, why is Mitt's overall favorability lower than Obama's? That's because Romney isn't as popular with Republicans (+68%) as Obama is with Democrats (+80%).

In other words, Obama's overall favorability number is only higher than Romney's because of more excessive, partisan feelings among his base.

f. Ethnicity.

There's much less polarization here than in Florida.

In Ohio, whites only back Romney by 7% over Obama, while in Florida, it's about 20%. Blacks, meanwhile, support Obama in Ohio by the standard, overwhelming number (+77%).

g. Enthusiasm gap.

Republicans are 10% more enthusiastic than Democrats about this year's election than past ones. That's significant, but quite a bit less than the 22% gap in Florida.

h. Portman for VP.

By 12%, Ohio voters would rather Romney pick homestate Senator Rob Portman to be Mitt's VP than Rubio or Christie.

i. Obama approval.

He's essentially tied with a 48%-47% approval rating, but he's underwater with indies (-3%) and by -4%, they don't think he deserves reelection.

The usual partisan gap shows up among Republicans and Democrats.

j. The economy.

Voters think Romney would do a better job (+4%) on the economy than Obama. Meanwhile, Ohioans also think there's still a recession (+36%), although by 14%, they think the economy is beginning to recover.