WISCONSIN: Obama holds solid lead

A couple bad things for Mitt Romney in a new Marquette University poll of Wisconsin.

1. Among likely voters, Barack Obama beats him, 51%-43%.

2. Among likely voters, Republican Gov. Scott Walker beats Tom Barrett, 52%-45%, in the recall race.

In other words, Walker is polling very well and Romney isn't. That flies in the face of RNC Chair Reince Priebus' assertion that a Walker win next week will necessarily help Romney this November.

Sure, it might, but it doesn't have to, and this poll makes the two appear somewhat unrelated.

NOW... having said that, a Marquette poll released earlier this month showed Obama and Romney tied, 46%-46%, so if there's that much variation in the same polling firm's survey -- within a month -- then that means the race is still fluid, and Romney still has a shot.