Friday, June 22, 2012

Battlegrounds: Obama blowing out Romney with Latinos

According to a new Latino Decisions poll, Barack Obama is routing Mitt Romney with Latinos in key battleground states.

The carnage.

ARIZONA: Obama 74% Romney 18%

COLORADO: Obama 70% Romney 22%

NEVADA: Obama 69% Romney 20%

VIRGINIA: Obama 59% Romney 28%

FLORIDA: Obama 53% Romney 37%

Helpfully, the poll was taken over a four day time period after Obama's immigration announcement, and as the White House probably anticipated, enthusiasm for the president grew in every state -- Arizona (+51%), Nevada (+51%), Colorado (+40%), Florida (+40%), and Virginia (+41%).

Considering their proximity to the border, it's not terribly surprising that Arizona and Nevada saw the biggest jumps.

Romney can only afford these blowout margins if the following things happen:

1. Turnout is low (which the immigration move seems designed to counter).

2. He takes a Midwestern path to 270.

But if he builds a traditional map that meanders through the usual red states, these margins won't work.

[Hat tip: Jordan Fabian]