Friday, June 8, 2012

Double-digit victories under 50%

Jay Cost writes that we should be leery of that kind of result.

The president is under 50 percent in most swing state polling averages. It’s not an ironclad rule that Obama cannot rise in the polls, but common sense suggests that it will be tough.

He’s been the president for three years – if you’re not inclined to vote for him now, what will five months of a campaign do?

It’s worth noting as well that most of these polls show the president getting roughly his job approval, which is all we should expect him to receive in the general election (maybe a little less). And his job approval rating has consistently been under 50 percent for two-and-a-half years.

Perfect example of all this?

In all five swing state polls released yesterday, Obama picked up less than 50% support -- even in those states he was leading.

That's why his 48% and 47% numbers in Wisconsin and Virginia weren't terrific news for him.