Thursday, June 7, 2012

Poll: Romney, Obama tied in Michigan


EPIC-MRA releases a new poll with good news for Mitt Romney in Michigan.

He leads Barack Obama, 46%-45%, which you've got to think is heavily influenced by the fact that the president's job approval rating is a miserable 41%.

EPIC co-founder John Cavanagh said the softening in support for Obama is likely related to a robust TV advertising campaign by pro-Romney PACs which have been critical of his handling of the economy.

Perhaps most troubling for the Democratic president is a decline in support from independent voters, Cavanagh said.

A couple things to note.

1. EPIC-MRA has consistently given Romney his best results in Michigan. Obama led in the two, most recent EPIC polls, BUT... Romney led in all three EPIC polls that came out in 2011.

In fact, according to RCP's average of Michigan polls, EPIC is the only major polling group to give Romney a lead over Obama during 2011 and 2012.

So that makes you wonder.

That being said, the other most frequent supplier of Michigan polls has been the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling which has skewed wildly toward Obama in battleground states (see here for more on that).

So it's hard to be terribly comfortable with any of the polling on Michigan.

2. The most interesting results from the EPIC survey are its questions on gay marriage and the auto bailout.

By 34%-12%, voters say Obama's gay marriage decision would make them less likely to support Obama.

Meanwhile, by 39%-18%, voters say Romney's position on the auto bailouts would make them less likely to support him.

That's a 22% and 21% difference on both questions, which means you can argue that Obama's gay marriage decision is just as politically damaging as Romney's auto bailout position.

Fair statement?