Monday, June 25, 2012

Rasmussen, Gallup at odds over Obama's approval

Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking polls have been mutually reinforcing this year. Neither strays much from the other, and each has suggested a Margin of Error Race that's far closer to reality than, for example, Bloomberg's weird poll last week showing the president up by 13%.

But there's a decided veer in the most recent results on Sunday.

Gallup has Barack Obama's net approval rating at +6%, while Rasmussen has it at -10%. That's a pretty astounding 16% gap.

That disparity carries over to their presidential preference polls, too. Gallup has Obama up 46%-45%, while Rasmussen has Romney in front, 48%-43%. That's a 6% gap.

So what's going on?

One possibility is that Gallup uses a seven day rolling average, while Rasmussen only uses a three day roll, but is that really enough to explain a 16% gap on job approval?