Thursday, July 19, 2012

Enthusiasm favors Romney in Virginia

The most interesting result in Quinnipiac University's new poll of Virginia, showing Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied, is that the middle class and upper income groups are more enthusiastic than all other income groups about this election.

45% of those making +$100K/year are more enthusiastic this year compared to past years, and 19% say they're less excited.

That's a net rating (+26%) that's 14% higher than the next, most enthusiastic group -- those making $50K-$100K.

The good news for Romney? These are his strongest groups.

To wit: He leads by 10% with those making between $50K-$100K, and by 5% with those making over $100K.

The two income groups Obama leads (the less financially successful groups) are the least enthusiastic about this election.

The two income groups Romney leads (the more financially successful) are the most enthusiastic about this election.

This translates to the economy, as well. The middle class and higher income groups pick Romney by +16% and +8%, respectively.

Obama only leads on the economy among lower income groups (which also happen to be the least enthusiastic).

Conclusion?

Romney is winning the enthusiasm war in Virginia, and in a state that's currently tied, that would be enough to give him the win