Thursday, July 12, 2012

Quinnipiac: Most think ObamaCare is a tax

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows why Barack Obama has been so reluctant to talk about his health care plan this summer.

55% of voters say ObamaCare is a tax, while only 36% say it's not. That's a nearly 20% gap and a huge political liability.

Some of the specs:

a. Voters think Congress should repeal the law, 49%-43%.

The takeaway here: Very often, voters don't like undoing something that's been done, but tend to make peace with legislation only as time passes.

That suggests Republicans only have a small window of time to repeal the law, and it also means that it will probably be a potent political issue, heading into November.

b. A surprisingly high 40% of Hispanics want Congress to repeal the measure. Healthcare is still a top issue to Hispanics, and this is a pretty big repeal number.

c. Indies want repeal, 49%-41%.

d. Even though most voters want the law repealed, they nevertheless support the Supreme Court's decision on its constitutionality, 48%-45%.

That shows the Supreme Court's relatively strong image in the eyes of many Americans, but even more profoundly, it shows just how unpopular ObamaCare is, considering that voters are turning to Congress (which they hate) for a resolution.

e. Most voters (59%) said the Supreme Court decision wouldn't affect their vote, but 27% said it would make them less likely to vote for Obama, while 12% said it would make them more likely.

Now here's the money stat: 27% of indies say it'll make them less likely to vote for Obama, while only 9% say it will make them more likely.

f. Gender gap on the mandate. 50% of women support a health insurance mandate, while 50% of men oppose it.

g. HUGE margins think ObamaCare is a tax.

55% say it's a tax, while only 36% say it's not. That gap widens when independents are asked. 59% of indies think it's a tax, and 22% say it's not.

That's a stunning 37% gap that works to Republicans' political favor.

Interestingly, Hispanics think it's a tax by 60%/29%, which is an even higher margin than among whites. Real phenomenon or perils of polling subgroups?

[Hat tip: Tom Bevan]