Rasmussen: Wisconsin is tight

A new Rasmussen poll shows a tight race in Wisconsin with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 49%-46%, among likely voters.

Romney actually led Obama in Rasmussen's last survey of the state (June), 47%-44%, so this is positive movement for Obama.

Key stats:

a. Obama's approval rating is solid.

He's at 52%/47%, which means he's gone north of the crucial 50% approval rating.

b. Indies support Romney, 46%/39%.

But he's going to need a stronger showing to overcome Democrats' registration edge.

c. Big gender gap.

Romney leads by 7% among men, but Obama is up with women by 11%.

d. Voters are split on Romney's business record.

40% say it's a reason to vote for him; 40% say it's a reason to vote against him. If Romney is going to win Wisconsin, he needs a positive number there.

OVERALL: Romney has only led in one Wisconsin poll since December 2010 -- Rasmussen's June survey.

So even though the margin is competitive, this is still a solid, lean Obama state.

[Photo: White House, Pete Souza]