A new Rasmussen poll shows a tight race in Wisconsin with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney, 49%-46%, among likely voters.
Romney actually led Obama in Rasmussen's last survey of the state (June), 47%-44%, so this is positive movement for Obama.
a. Obama's approval rating is solid.
He's at 52%/47%, which means he's gone north of the crucial 50% approval rating.
b. Indies support Romney, 46%/39%.
But he's going to need a stronger showing to overcome Democrats' registration edge.
c. Big gender gap.
Romney leads by 7% among men, but Obama is up with women by 11%.
d. Voters are split on Romney's business record.
40% say it's a reason to vote for him; 40% say it's a reason to vote against him. If Romney is going to win Wisconsin, he needs a positive number there.
OVERALL: Romney has only led in one Wisconsin poll since December 2010 -- Rasmussen's June survey.
So even though the margin is competitive, this is still a solid, lean Obama state.
[Photo: White House, Pete Souza]