A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied in Virginia, 44%-44%.
That's a big jump for Romney. In the last Q poll, he trailed Obama, 50%-42%.
Some key stats:
a. Obama wins 92% of Democrats, Romney wins 91% of Republicans, and Obama leads Mitt among indies, 40%-38%.
So essentially, they're even everywhere, which will make turnout even more important.
b. The gender gap is much smaller than we've often seen. Men back Romney by 4%; women back Obama by 5%.
c. The ethnic gap is as stark as ever. Whites favor Romney by 22%, while blacks support Obama, 88%-1%.
d. Romney sweeps every subgroup among whites -- those with a college degree (+10%), without one (+28%), Protestants (+38%), Catholics (+25%), Men (+24%), Women (+19%).
e. Among ALL voters, Obama leads with lower income groups -- those making under $30K/year and those making $30K-$50K.
Meanwhile, Romney leads with those making $50K-$100K and those making over $100,000.
f. Romney's favorability continues to be fairly bad, registering at 39%/42% for -3%. Obama's, though, isn't any better at 46%/48%.
Both are unpopular with indies. Romney is at -9%; Obama is at -6%.
g. Enthusiasm favors GOP.
46% of Republicans say they're more excited about this year's election, while 38% of Dems say the same.
Interestingly, though, blacks have higher numbers here than whites, though, which is a bit of good news for Obama.
The most enthusiastic subgroup? Those making +$100K.
h. Obama's approval rating sits at 45%/51% for -6% and whites give it a 33%/62% rating, while blacks give him a 93%/4% rating. So many demography is destiny numbers, as usual.
Meanwhile, 47% believe he deserves reelection, while 50% don't think he does (split -- whites don't think so 35%/62%, while blacks think so, 96%-2%.
i. Good news for Obama -- he does much better on empathy. By 54%/43%, voters think he cares about their needs; whereas, by 42%/50%, they don't think Romney does.
That's an important (and huge) 19% gap.
Ironically, the group that gives Romney the most support on voter preference (whites without college degree) only give him a +5% on this question!
That's another way of saying that they're motivated more by ousting Obama than electing Romney.
j. Romney wins on the economy, 47%-44%.
Indies favor him by 4%, women are split, and men prefer Romney, 50%-42%.