Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Obama is solid in Wisconsin


The final swing state poll in Quinnipiac/New York Times' new batch is Wisconsin -- a state that wasn't close, at all, in 2008 but might be a battleground this time (or so conventional wisdom goes).

Among likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51%-45%.

Key stats:

a. Obama is out of the warning area on multiple fronts.

He cracks 50% on voter preference, job approval (51%/46%), and favorability (53%/44%). All scores suggest he's the strong favorite in the state.

b. Mitt Romney's favorability rating is 41%/43%, which means Obama has an advantage of +11% on that measure.

c. Obama has a 57%/40% rating on empathy, while Romney's is just 41%/51%. That's a 27% advantage for Obama.

d. Obama leads on the economy, 47%-46%.

e. Obama leads on health care, 49%-43%.

f. Obama leads on national security, 53%-39%.

g. Voters are more likely to say that Romney's experience at Bain was focused too much on profits (48%) and not the right kind of experience to create jobs in the economy (43%)

h. Obama leads among independents, 48%-47%, and scores 94% of Democrats in a still-blue state.

i. Whites without college degrees. This is Romney's problem in the state. He usually racks up huge margins with this group (he leads in Virginia by 32%), but only leads here by 5%. That's probably a union thing.

Meanwhile, whites with college degrees favor Obama, 57%-37%.

j. Gender gap. Men prefer Romney by 10%, but women pick Obama, 59%-36%.

Overall: At various points during this cycle, Wisconsin has seemed to be in possible play, particularly after Scott Walker's big reelection win.

But the fact remains: Out of 21 polls in the state this year, Obama has led in 19, Romney has led in 1, and the other has been a tie.

That's not a battleground, and if it is, then it's a pretty one-sided battle.